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Norion on 30 May 2024
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zorg1000 said:
Norion said:

I mean Sony missed their last PS5 forecast by quite a bit so the analysts at these companies are not infallible. I don't fully know what's to come of course but when looking at the trends you get a good idea of what's gonna happen. It's clear there's gonna be no games on the level of TOTK this year for example since all the huge stuff will be developed for the Switch 2 at this point and it's a fair assumption since the highly reported on rumour was it originally being intended for late this year and a delay that big would be surprising.

There is definitely a good chance they will miss their target but I would say let’s wait until next month’s Direct because they wouldn’t make that forecast if they didn’t have a reason to think it was possible.

They had to know April/May would be down by a lot considering Mario Movie+TotK released last year and this year has Endless Ocean+Paper Mario. They have to have something significant coming or else the forecast makes no sense.

Sure though even with a good holiday lineup I don't really think it's feasible for the reasons I've brought up like the deficit it'll have after this quarter and the Switch 2 increasingly depressing sales as the fiscal year goes on. And there's surely not gonna be anything as significant as the combination of TOTK and the Mario film cause those happening back to back was absolutely massive.


That would be a good lineup but considering that Pokemon Legends Z-A is probably gonna be a cross-gen game that one won't help out the Switch much and by November the Switch 2 will either be announced or close enough to launching that information about it will be spreading far and depressing hardware sales since many people would prefer waiting a bit longer. This point is particularly noteworthy since the majority of Switch sales are the OLED model and it's clear a lot of those are being sold to existing owners based on the slowing growth of the annual userbase and people are gonna be way less likely to spend a few hundred on an upgrade when they can just wait a bit and get a way bigger upgrade.

The issue is that it would be very strange for them to suddenly do a huge price cut like that when they've gone 7 years without doing any and even released a more expensive model that has the same level of power. With the Switch on its way out a few million extra sales for it but a big reduction in revenue doesn't seem like a good trade. I can see them cutting the price after the successor comes out though so they have a low cost option for a while.

There is nothing that hints at Legends Z-A being a cross-gen (as in launch cross-gen). It will still be playable on the Successor given the rumored backwards compatibility. But all signs point to a 3D Mario launch. Hence no need for launch cross-gens, like what most people say on here for Metroid Prime 4, or Legends Z-A. Those two maybe be playable immediately on the Successor but it'll be through the Switch cartridge/software because they'll be released earlier than the Successor. 

Personally, I would love to see the Successor launch in the Spring, but considering that the FY only had Switch I can only assume the Successor must launch after March 31, 2025. And the latest being the 3rd week of November 2025. Earlier is better considering it could be difficult to find, and it help bring positive advertising through word of mouth to many for the holiday season.

Giving what you said some thought, and I agree maybe they won't do a full $100 price cut immediately, but I can see them announcing a Summer Sale $50 off all Switch units (NS: $249, NSL: $149, NSOLED: $299) and release a Summer bundle of 2-3 games for same price as the console used to be (NS: $299, NSL: $199, NSOLED: $349). Then continue to announce the Summer Sale but rebrand it as the Fall and Holiday Sale, each with 2-3 different bundles. Then after Dec 31, 2024 they announce another $50 off. Leading to the $100 off price cut, and multiple bundles. 

Either way there will for sure be a price cut once the Successor comes out, that way the Switch won't be "competing" at its price level.

I talk about the price cuts because it doesn't make much sense on why their revenue goal is so low. Which is why price cut, and bundles make sense.

It having a full blown Switch 2 version or not won't really change the impact much as long as it releases near its launch and is playable on it. With the rumours it would be surprising if it's any later than April and I doubt a full on price cut but temporary deals and bundles being pushed harder should happen yeah. I wonder if they'll cut the price of the OLED model or just discontinue it after the successor comes out cause rumours point to it being LCD so it would have a worse screen than that model if that's the case.