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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: Switch at 139.36m shipped

Shtinamin_ on 09 February 2024
farlaff said:
Valdney said:

I said BotW would start overtaking Tot-crappy-ultrahand-Kingdom on a quarterly basis soon and Nintendo shills on tweeter got mad at me. lol. I just did not know it would be as soon as probably next quarter. Dude TotK only moved 780k in the holiday quarter? BotW moved 460? Damn!! lol.

@bold: That was pretty unbelievable to me. Seriously, I cannot make much sense out of that. Do people did not know there was a new game in the series? Do they want to buy BotW now and then wait to buy TotK later to get the full experience (also knowing the price won't come down for f. sake, so why bother)? Is it the difference in price? Wtf, really?

I think it was the newer generation of gamers. 8-14 year olds that want a gaming console. Their parents buy a console and see that a game with the same name Legend of Zelda (but not the full name) and pick the lower price because of economic awareness?
That's my take.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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RolStoppable on 09 February 2024
ShadowLink93 said:

Nintendo Low balled their forecast, i think 2.2M is what they will ship for Q4. Japan will be very low because they overshipped in Q3 by 400K.

(...)

Any hardware forecasts above 10m are always given in increments of 0.5m. Nintendo isn't going to say 16m with only one quarter to go when it's at best a 50/50 shot of making it. Additionally, 15.5m constitutes an upward adjustment already, so beating that will look good a second time.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Shtinamin_ on 09 February 2024
ShadowLink93 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I love your charts so much!

Ok so as of Dec 31, 2023 the Switch has 139.36M hardware units shipped. And Nintendo has a goal to ship 15.5M hardware units. That means they only plan to ship a minimum of 1.76M units in Q4. Let’s assume that they reach their goal and don’t plan to ship more in Q4 once they ship 1.76M.

How do you think they will distribute the 1.76M?

Personally this is what I think (using FY 23/24):

Japan: 4.24 (+0.5M)

Americas: 5.45 (+0.6M)

Europe: 3.96M (+0.4M)

Other: 1.85M (+0.26M)

Nintendo Low balled their forecast, i think 2.2M is what they will ship for Q4. Japan will be very low because they overshipped in Q3 by 400K.

Japan: 300K

Americas: 950K

Europe: 650K

Other:  300K

I agree that they low balled. I was just using their shipment as a goal. 
I didn't know that they over-shipped in Japan, interesting.
Ok, thinking about it over now with that in mind this will be my new guestimate for Q4.

FY 23/24 final estimate total (Q4 2M Shipped)
Japan: 4.14M (+400k)
Americas: 5.65M (+800k)
Europe: 4.02M (+460k)
Other: 1.93M (+340k)

I think Europe is starting to no longer be a heavy contributor to Switch sales/shipped due to PS5 showing strong dominance, word of mouth is a powerful ad. But I think Other is starting to show more increase, thanks to Nintendo movies.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Fight-the-Streets on 09 February 2024
Pajderman said:

In the long run, having the most sold units of any gaming system is probably very good for the brand. It could be a good strategic move to offer some short term earnings in order to push the Switch to the best selling ever heights.

But if Nintendo takes that path I think they want to be damn sure that the Switch make it, and just beating the PS2 with a few thousand units won't be enough.

People here always say that having the most sold consoles is nice to have for the respective console manufacturer but it's not important. Well, I'm not so sure about that, Sony advertised the PS4 as "the world's most selling home console" consecutively for 4 years (2014 - 2017). Being king in unit sales is something to brag about and it has its marketing power. How succesfully it translates into selling even more products is a question that can't be answered as everything tied to marketing/advertising costs and effect (well it's just a slogan, it doesn't cost anything) is nebulous to outsiders. 



curl-6 on 09 February 2024
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

Wouldn't the decline be a lot steeper than 30% given Switch is likely to be replaced this year? Once a successor is announced and then released sales should fall off dramatically, and companies these days tend to phase out old hardware quite quickly.

Certainly possible to have a steeper decline if Nintendo does nothing more than release their B-titles this year, because the holiday quarter would contribute negatively in a big way in that case. But last year we've gone through the same things repeatedly and then Nintendo ended up doing something, hence why this fiscal year turned out better than most people believed when the original forecast of 15m was announced.

Wouldn't it be more likely that this year's big holiday games will be for Switch 2 rather than the current system? With the exception of Pokémon, Nintendo's typically don't bring A-titles to their hardware in the final stages of its life, preferring instead to focus on the new system.

3DS for instance for support in 2017-2019 but aside from Ultra Sun/Moon it was all B-titles.

Also, 3DS could coexist with Switch cos it was much cheaper; unless Switch 2 is like $500 which would be a serious problem in itself, $400 for instance would be too close in price to the $300-$350 hybrid models of the Switch for coexistence, and companies these days seem to have little appetite for price cuts, as evidenced by the Switch itself still being at launch price 7 years later.



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Shtinamin_ on 09 February 2024
curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

Certainly possible to have a steeper decline if Nintendo does nothing more than release their B-titles this year, because the holiday quarter would contribute negatively in a big way in that case. But last year we've gone through the same things repeatedly and then Nintendo ended up doing something, hence why this fiscal year turned out better than most people believed when the original forecast of 15m was announced.

Wouldn't it be more likely that this year's big holiday games will be for Switch 2 rather than the current system? With the exception of Pokémon, Nintendo's typically don't bring A-titles to their hardware in the final stages of its life, preferring instead to focus on the new system.

3DS for instance for support in 2017-2019 but aside from Ultra Sun/Moon it was all B-titles.

Also, 3DS could coexist with Switch cos it was much cheaper; unless Switch 2 is like $500 which would be a serious problem in itself, $400 for instance would be too close in price to the $300-$350 hybrid models of the Switch for coexistence, and companies these days seem to have little appetite for price cuts, as evidenced by the Switch itself still being at launch price 7 years later.

If the successor is to be released this year then yes. Nintendo will put all their effort into the successor for the holiday. At least 2 AAA games worth of effort.

If the successor is released in Spring 2025, the no, Nintendo has at least 1 more AAA left (apart from Metroid Prime 4).

Either way, I believe that once the successor is released the Switch will receive price drops:

  1. To make room for store shelving of the successor
  2. Be a family friendly cheap entrance to build a relation with Nintendo
  3. Diminished consoles sales in which the projected hardware or software goals cannot be met

Many small indie developers will release games on the Switch for another 5 years guaranteed, but very few will be released by Nintendo, in fact I think Nintendo stated that after March 31 2025 they wont be putting any Nintendo published games on the Switch. Is that right?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

curl-6 on 09 February 2024
Shtinamin_ said:
curl-6 said:

Wouldn't it be more likely that this year's big holiday games will be for Switch 2 rather than the current system? With the exception of Pokémon, Nintendo's typically don't bring A-titles to their hardware in the final stages of its life, preferring instead to focus on the new system.

3DS for instance for support in 2017-2019 but aside from Ultra Sun/Moon it was all B-titles.

Also, 3DS could coexist with Switch cos it was much cheaper; unless Switch 2 is like $500 which would be a serious problem in itself, $400 for instance would be too close in price to the $300-$350 hybrid models of the Switch for coexistence, and companies these days seem to have little appetite for price cuts, as evidenced by the Switch itself still being at launch price 7 years later.

If the successor is to be released this year then yes. Nintendo will put all their effort into the successor for the holiday. At least 2 AAA games worth of effort.

If the successor is released in Spring 2025, the no, Nintendo has at least 1 more AAA left (apart from Metroid Prime 4).

Either way, I believe that once the successor is released the Switch will receive price drops:

  1. To make room for store shelving of the successor
  2. Be a family friendly cheap entrance to build a relation with Nintendo
  3. Diminished consoles sales in which the projected hardware or software goals cannot be met

Many small indie developers will release games on the Switch for another 5 years guaranteed, but very few will be released by Nintendo, in fact I think Nintendo stated that after March 31 2025 they wont be putting any Nintendo published games on the Switch. Is that right?

They've said they plan to release first party Switch software in the Fiscal year ending March 2025, but not when support will end.

I agree that keeping Switch around as a low budget entry level system would be beneficial, I'm just not sure it will happen as these days price cuts are almost unheard of and old hardware is usually phased out quickly to make room for the new.



zorg1000 on 09 February 2024
Shtinamin_ said:
curl-6 said:

Wouldn't it be more likely that this year's big holiday games will be for Switch 2 rather than the current system? With the exception of Pokémon, Nintendo's typically don't bring A-titles to their hardware in the final stages of its life, preferring instead to focus on the new system.

3DS for instance for support in 2017-2019 but aside from Ultra Sun/Moon it was all B-titles.

Also, 3DS could coexist with Switch cos it was much cheaper; unless Switch 2 is like $500 which would be a serious problem in itself, $400 for instance would be too close in price to the $300-$350 hybrid models of the Switch for coexistence, and companies these days seem to have little appetite for price cuts, as evidenced by the Switch itself still being at launch price 7 years later.

If the successor is to be released this year then yes. Nintendo will put all their effort into the successor for the holiday. At least 2 AAA games worth of effort.

If the successor is released in Spring 2025, the no, Nintendo has at least 1 more AAA left (apart from Metroid Prime 4).

 in fact I think Nintendo stated that after March 31 2025 they wont be putting any Nintendo published games on the Switch. Is that right?

Nintendo definitely did not and never would make a definitive statement like that.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable on 10 February 2024
curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

Certainly possible to have a steeper decline if Nintendo does nothing more than release their B-titles this year, because the holiday quarter would contribute negatively in a big way in that case. But last year we've gone through the same things repeatedly and then Nintendo ended up doing something, hence why this fiscal year turned out better than most people believed when the original forecast of 15m was announced.

Wouldn't it be more likely that this year's big holiday games will be for Switch 2 rather than the current system? With the exception of Pokémon, Nintendo's typically don't bring A-titles to their hardware in the final stages of its life, preferring instead to focus on the new system.

3DS for instance for support in 2017-2019 but aside from Ultra Sun/Moon it was all B-titles.

Also, 3DS could coexist with Switch cos it was much cheaper; unless Switch 2 is like $500 which would be a serious problem in itself, $400 for instance would be too close in price to the $300-$350 hybrid models of the Switch for coexistence, and companies these days seem to have little appetite for price cuts, as evidenced by the Switch itself still being at launch price 7 years later.

I said as much in my response to Dulfite which was in the same post as my response to you.

As for Switch price cuts, the thing is that so far Switch has never sold at a level low enough to necessitate a price cut, so taking the absence of a price cut as evidence of Nintendo refusing to cut the price at all isn't logically sound.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Shtinamin_ on 10 February 2024
zorg1000 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

If the successor is to be released this year then yes. Nintendo will put all their effort into the successor for the holiday. At least 2 AAA games worth of effort.

If the successor is released in Spring 2025, the no, Nintendo has at least 1 more AAA left (apart from Metroid Prime 4).

 in fact I think Nintendo stated that after March 31 2025 they wont be putting any Nintendo published games on the Switch. Is that right?

Nintendo definitely did not and never would make a definitive statement like that.

I never said that Nintendo made a statement.
Why can't I be logical? and hopeful?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.