Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: Switch at 139.36m shipped

[Shtinamin_]

ShadowLink93 said:

Shtinamin_ said:

I love your charts so much!

Ok so as of Dec 31, 2023 the Switch has 139.36M hardware units shipped. And Nintendo has a goal to ship 15.5M hardware units. That means they only plan to ship a minimum of 1.76M units in Q4. Let’s assume that they reach their goal and don’t plan to ship more in Q4 once they ship 1.76M.

How do you think they will distribute the 1.76M?

Personally this is what I think (using FY 23/24):

Japan: 4.24 (+0.5M)

Americas: 5.45 (+0.6M)

Europe: 3.96M (+0.4M)

Other: 1.85M (+0.26M)

Nintendo Low balled their forecast, i think 2.2M is what they will ship for Q4. Japan will be very low because they overshipped in Q3 by 400K.

Japan: 300K

Americas: 950K

Europe: 650K

Other:  300K

I agree that they low balled. I was just using their shipment as a goal. 
I didn't know that they over-shipped in Japan, interesting.
Ok, thinking about it over now with that in mind this will be my new guestimate for Q4.

FY 23/24 final estimate total (Q4 2M Shipped)
Japan: 4.14M (+400k)
Americas: 5.65M (+800k)
Europe: 4.02M (+460k)
Other: 1.93M (+340k)

I think Europe is starting to no longer be a heavy contributor to Switch sales/shipped due to PS5 showing strong dominance, word of mouth is a powerful ad. But I think Other is starting to show more increase, thanks to Nintendo movies.