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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

November 2023 Circana (NPD) covers the five week period from October 29 to November 25 and will be released on December 13.

Notes: The dates includes Black Friday, but not Cyber Monday. There have been deals and bundles, as well as the release of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 on November 10 (2022's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 released on October 28, 2022).

Since NPD leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

  1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
  2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
  3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000

Results:

TLDR:

Units: PS5 > XS > NS
Revenue: PS5 > XS > NS

YTD Units: PS5 > NS > XS
YTD Revenue: PS5 > NS > XS

Link to VGChartz articles here.

PS5 Best-Selling Console in the US in November as Sales Drop, Call of Duty Debuts in 1st

The PlayStation 5 was the best-selling console in the US in November 2023 in terms of units sold and dollar sales, according to figures from Circana (formerly The NPD Group). Circana includes the dates for the four week period of October 29 to November 25.

The Xbox Series X|S was second best-selling console in terms of units sold and dollar sales. The Nintendo Switch was third best-selling console in terms of units sold and dollar sales.

All three consoles are down by over 20 percent year-on-year despite discounts and bundles. 

2023 year-to-date the PlayStation 5 is the best-selling console in terms of both units sold and dollar sales. The Nintendo Switch comes in second place in both units sold and dollar sales, while the Xbox Series X|S comes in third place.

Overall spending on video games in November was down seven percent year-on-year from $6.29 billion to $5.87 billion. Spending on video game content decreased three percent from $4.73 billion to $4.60 billion, while video game hardware sales dropped 24 percent from $1,271 million to $964 million.

Overall spending on video games in 2023 year-to-date is up one percent from $49.00 billion to $49.28 billion. Spending on video game content is up one percent from $41.91 billion to $42.24 billion, while video game hardware sales is down one percent from $5.06 billion to $44.99 billion.

"U.S. consumer spending on video game content, hardware and accessories fell 7% when compared to a year ago, to $5.9 billion," said Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella. "The decline was driven by a 24% drop in hardware spending and a 3% dip in content."

Piscatella added, "November video game content spending dropped 3% when compared to a year ago, to $4.6 billion. An 11% decline in Console & Portable Content spending was partially offset by 3% growth across each of the Mobile, Subscription, and 'PC, Cloud & Non-Console VR' Content segments."

There were four new releases in the top 20 best-selling games. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III debuted in first place and is already the second best-selling game of 2023. It is the fifth straight year a Call of Duty game was November's best-seller. Red Dead Redemption II came in first in November 2018.

Marvel's Spider-Man 2 in its second month dropped from first to second place and remains the fourth best-selling game of 2023.

Hogwarts Legacy shot up the charts from 10th to third place due to the release of the Nintendo Switch version of the game. It remains the best-selling game of 2023. It was also the second best-selling on the Switch for the month.

Super Mario RPG debuted in seventh place, Naruto X Boruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm Connections debuted in 12th place, and Star Ocean: The Second Story R debuted in 17th place.

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in terms of dollars for November 2023:

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in 2023 year-to-date:

Here are the top 20 games played on the PlayStation 5 ranked by monthly active users:

Here are the top 20 games played on the Xbox Series X|S ranked by monthly active users:

Here are the top 20 games played on Steam ranked by monthly active users:

Last edited by trunkswd - on 13 December 2023

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Maybe we could update in here whenever the BF numbers drop



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PS5- 2.5 million
Switch- 1 million
Xbox- 1 million



PS5 - 1.4 million
Switch - 950,000
XS - 800,000



PS5 - 1.9 million
Switch - 1.1 million
XS - 900,000



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badskywalker said:

PS5 - 1.4 million
Switch - 950,000
XS - 800,000

For this year I think anything below 2M will be to low.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Sony seems to have so much stock this year, so I’m going to go:

PS5 1.8m
Xbox 1m
Switch 800k



DonFerrari said:
badskywalker said:

PS5 - 1.4 million
Switch - 950,000
XS - 800,000

For this year I think anything below 2M will be to low.

I think there will be a large blead over into December. Cyber monday has steadily been killing black friday. Since this year's NPD only goes to the day after black friday you don't have cyber Monday, and really only have 2 days of major major sales. Additionally, the first two weeks I suspect will be quite low, as they were Japan. I feel as if anything above 2 million is crazy.



badskywalker said:
DonFerrari said:

For this year I think anything below 2M will be to low.

I think there will be a large blead over into December. Cyber monday has steadily been killing black friday. Since this year's NPD only goes to the day after black friday you don't have cyber Monday, and really only have 2 days of major major sales. Additionally, the first two weeks I suspect will be quite low, as they were Japan. I feel as if anything above 2 million is crazy.

Understood, it does make sense.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

I have a sneaking suspicion that this may be one of the lowest Xbox November's ever.

PS5 [1,500,000]
NSW [1,000,000]
XSX. [540,000]

What gives it away is the sudden fire sale in the US. It's not much cheaper than Black Friday. It feels like MS panicked.