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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 126 84.56%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.44%
 
Total:149
RolStoppable on 14 February 2024
zeldaring said:

yea maybe i'm being to negative. I haven't been following sales that much and assumed that xbox series was doing much worse then xbox one which ended up selling 55-60 million i think?

Yes, Xbox One sold ~58m units, at least that's the final number VGC has after a significant upward adjustment that was deemed necessary. Before said adjustment, the Xbox One peak years were ~8m units each, after adjustments they should be closer to 9m.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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Norion on 14 February 2024
zeldaring said:
RolStoppable said:

Sony had been missing their forecast massively during the first two quarters of the fiscal year already, so you shouldn't have expected them to be able to change that. 8.6m in the holiday quarter are in line with what we had seen before.

Also, the generation is far from over, so speaking of a huge decline is premature. The PS5 is tracking ~2.5m behind the PS4 launch-aligned, Xbox Series vs. Xbox One should be a similar value up to this point. The PS5 is set to close the gap a little bit in the current quarter, expected to ship at least 4.6m compared to the PS4's 2.9m at the time. Additionally, it's doubtful that these declines have anything to do with a home console-only model. For one, the PS5 is keeping pace with the PS4, and two, the Xbox's decline can be attributed to Microsoft's ill-advised strategy of releasing their games day and date on Xbox and PC, making the Xbox console redundant due to no exclusives, neither outright or timed.

Yea maybe i'm being too negative. I haven't been following sales that much and assumed that xbox series was doing much worse then xbox one which ended up selling 55-60 million i think? I heard that this gen xbox might end up at 35 million and i expect ps4 to end up at 105 million that's kinda of a huge decline is my prediction. 

Look at the front page, the estimate for Xbox Series sales is right there. You can see how close it is 35m already. 



zeldaring on 14 February 2024
Norion said:
zeldaring said:

Yea maybe i'm being too negative. I haven't been following sales that much and assumed that xbox series was doing much worse then xbox one which ended up selling 55-60 million i think? I heard that this gen xbox might end up at 35 million and i expect ps4 to end up at 105 million that's kinda of a huge decline is my prediction. 

Look at the front page, the estimate for Xbox Series sales is right there. You can see how close it is 35m already. 

27 million but thats also with massive price cut and heavy losses this holiday on hardware.



zorg1000 on 14 February 2024
zeldaring said:
Norion said:

Look at the front page, the estimate for Xbox Series sales is right there. You can see how close it is 35m already. 

27 million but thats also with massive price cut and heavy losses this holiday on hardware.

So it made sense to think it sold 27 million in ~3 years and will only sell 8 million more in the next 4 years?

Xbox Series isn’t doing great by any means but it will likely hit ~50 million, you have to remember that Xbox One also had very frequent and substantial discounts, it launched in holiday 2013 for $499 and by holiday 2014 you could find it for $329, the following holiday for $299, then $249, then $189, then $149, and these were often with a game or Live or Game Pass bundled. This is also not including the various discounts outside of the holiday season.

Xbox One got to where it is by heavy and frequent discounts & bundles, Xbox Series will do the same.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Norion on 14 February 2024
zorg1000 said:
zeldaring said:

27 million but thats also with massive price cut and heavy losses this holiday on hardware.

So it made sense to think it sold 27 million in ~3 years and will only sell 8 million more in the next 4 years?

Xbox Series isn’t doing great by any means but it will likely hit ~50 million, you have to remember that Xbox One also had very frequent and substantial discounts, it launched in holiday 2013 for $499 and by holiday 2014 you could find it for $329, the following holiday for $299, then $249, then $189, then $149, and these were often with a game or Live or Game Pass bundled. This is also not including the various discounts outside of the holiday season.

Xbox One got to where it is by heavy and frequent discounts & bundles, Xbox Series will do the same.

Yeah some people are definitely over correcting in response to the disappointing sales the past 1.5 years. Unless the rumour of the next Xbox releasing in 2026 turns out to be true it still has a good shot of crawling to 50m. Even just an average of 5m a year for the next four years almost gets there.



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mjk45 on 14 February 2024
curl-6 said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

A bit of a premature conclusion since the roles will likely reverse after the Switch sucessor releases, Nintendo isn't the only one who has evergreens. If it wasn't for new information pointing to more Spider-Man games/spin-offs on PS5, I'd actually say the difference is small enough that Spider-Man was in a better position, but taking that into consideration it's legs will probably be smaller than the first game.

Either way this isn't really the finish line, nobody should have expected Spider-Man to sell more in the first quarter on 40 % of the install base and it didn't end up that far behind, but both games underperformed most predictions which makes the gap larger in relative terms.

Oh it wasn't a conclusion, just an observation of the story so far. I never said it was over. 

As far as Spiderman having better legs once Switch's successor releases, I'm not so certain of that. If the successor is backwards compatible and there's no Switch 2 version of Wonder, the original game's legs could extend well beyond the Switch's replacement.

Yes but you confined the sales to the PS5 and Switch so a BC Switch2 muddies the water.



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pikashoe on 14 February 2024
mjk45 said:
curl-6 said:

Oh it wasn't a conclusion, just an observation of the story so far. I never said it was over. 

As far as Spiderman having better legs once Switch's successor releases, I'm not so certain of that. If the successor is backwards compatible and there's no Switch 2 version of Wonder, the original game's legs could extend well beyond the Switch's replacement.

Yes but you confined the sales to the PS5 and Switch so a BC Switch2 muddies the water.

It really doesn't muddy the waters at all. At the end of the day it is still the switch version of the game. 



curl-6 on 14 February 2024
mjk45 said:
curl-6 said:

Oh it wasn't a conclusion, just an observation of the story so far. I never said it was over. 

As far as Spiderman having better legs once Switch's successor releases, I'm not so certain of that. If the successor is backwards compatible and there's no Switch 2 version of Wonder, the original game's legs could extend well beyond the Switch's replacement.

Yes but you confined the sales to the PS5 and Switch so a BC Switch2 muddies the water.

I confined the sales to the Switch version of Wonder and the PS5 version of Spiderman; if somebody buys the Switch version but plays it on the successor via BC, that is still technically a sale for the Switch SKU. Likewise, if somebody years from now were to buy the PS5 version of Spiderman 2 but play in on their PS6, that'd still be a sale of the PS5 SKU.



mjk45 on 14 February 2024
pikashoe said:
mjk45 said:

Yes but you confined the sales to the PS5 and Switch so a BC Switch2 muddies the water.

It really doesn't muddy the waters at all. At the end of the day it is still the switch version of the game. 

Fair enough😊



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

LGBTDBZBBQ on 17 February 2024

Mario Bros. Wonder didn't have bundles to help with sales but managed to sell that much without any problem. It's going to get close to the 20 million-unit mark in this year alone.