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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 126 84.56%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.44%
 
Total:149
zorg1000 on 09 October 2023
zeldaring said:
zorg1000 said:

First of all, I’m not taking what you say personally or triggered, I don’t care if you have opinions/predictions different from mine or others on this site but opinions/predictions need to be based on something to be taken seriously.

Basically what I’m saying is, show your work, explain why that is your opinion/prediction with some sort of data/evidence to back it up. “It’s my opinion” is such a lazy way to not have to support your argument.

You brought up Mario fatigue, so it’s on you to provide the slightest bit of evidence to support that statement. Sure, Switch has a ton of Mario games but that’s been true for years so why would 2023 all of a sudden be the year fatigue shows, especially in a year with the massively successful Mario Movie?

I’m sorry if I’ve been rude or short with you but this is a forum based on data/statistics so I expect you to do the bare minimum and use the tools available to base your opinions/predictions on.

My dude I'm predicting 20 million in sales not 10 and gave my explanation. You don't agree just say I don't agree and move on. It's not that serious. Why would super mario wonder blow away 3d world for example. When for 90% of usebase 3d world is a brand new mario game. That's just what I'm seeing and if you don't agree it's ok but some you guys feel like that's insult and want a essay of why i feel it will 20 million its a just prediction thread for fun and many people get predictions massively wrong like wiiu sales prediction and switch sales as well. For example rol  predicted smash  brawl would  out self gta4 and he got the prediction dead wrong she would have ganged up and said how stupid his logic was.

Nah dude you’re moving goalposts and can’t even answer simple questions. You brought up Mario fatigue when explaining your prediction and now people are asking where this idea of fatigue is coming from and you’re answer is “Switch has a lot of Mario games”.


Why would Wonder blow away 3D World? Idk, why did Mario Odyssey blow away previous 3D Marios? BotW blow away previous Zeldas? GTA5 blow away previous GTAs? Skyrim blow away previous Elder Scrolls? Mario Kart 8 Deluxe blow away previous Mario Karts? Super Mario Party blow away previous Mario Parties?

I really don’t know why you think 3D World is somehow relevant all of a sudden.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 on 09 October 2023
curl-6 said:
zeldaring said:

That's just your opinion.

Actually it's not just my opinion, it's the opinion of a great many people. There's a lot of excitement around this being the first non-NSMB entry in forever.

Also funny that the guy whose defense has been, “why are you mad? It’s my opinion” is using “that’s just your opinion” as an argument.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

mjk45 on 09 October 2023
curl-6 said:
zeldaring said:

NSMBU is only disliked on forums by a few individuals. My friends and family with kids which are super casual gamers all love it. I mean I don't know I might be wrong just making a prediction for fun. Also you said only switch right. So sales are gonna die right when switch 2 comes out.

NSMB fatigue wasn't just a thing on forums, it showed in sales as well, both for NSMBU and 2; Switch and 3DS both had proportionately lower sales of NSMB than Wii because of this.

Personally I doubt Switch 2's release will kill sales of Wonder, there's still a massive base of Switch owners and they won't all buy it immediately. 3DS games didn't just instantly stop selling after Switch came out.

I'm not up to date on Nintendo's software release schedule,so correct me if I'm wrong, but with the Switch 2's release seemingly not to far away Wonder may actually benefit from having some clean air around it in terms of big first party releases up to the Switch 2's release, like I said correct me if I'm wrong in thinking that.

About Spiderman 2 while I see Wonder selling more depending on the Switch 2 release date it may not be as big a margin as some think, I think that those posters who bring up the PS5 install base as a negative for Spiderman, need to remember that Spiderman isn't just selling to those 42 plus million existing console owners, it will be releasing at a time where the gaming base is experiencing an upwards growth trajectory that should see the PS5 numbers double in size over the next few years making it an opportune time for it's release knowing that if it sells to expectation that upswing will give it legs and see it selling to a great many of those new owners.

Last edited by mjk45 - on 10 October 2023

Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

IcaroRibeiro on 09 October 2023
Teriol said:

Zeldaring your like count number on all your post tells a sad history for you, you are trolling every time hahaha

The best part is people actually fall for it. I always came back here to laugh about his "opinions" because people really get pissed off with a troll saying bad things about their favorite brand 



zeldaring on 09 October 2023

I'm done with thread. I'll be back in a month to see who wins the prediction.



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zeldaring on 09 October 2023
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Actually it's not just my opinion, it's the opinion of a great many people. There's a lot of excitement around this being the first non-NSMB entry in forever.

Also funny that the guy whose defense has been, “why are you mad? It’s my opinion” is using “that’s just your opinion” as an argument.

I said its his opinion that NSMBU has not real effort or no ambitious I think it's a good 2d platformer.



Chrkeller on 10 October 2023
zeldaring said:
curl-6 said:

3D and 2D Mario are fundamentally different, and there's only been one new 2D entry in the last 11 years. Heck, it's been nearly 4 years since the port of New Super Mario Bros U came out on Switch, that's a pretty standard gap between games in the same popular series.

I really don't see any sign of Mario fatigue, especially not on the h11eels of the movie being a massive hit.

That's Fine. I honestly expected both 3d world and nsmu to do much better  considering what mario kart 8 did. Let's remove fatigue and just say there are way to many mario platformers on switch for this to do 30 million. Like I just don't see the thirst for a mario platformers. You can say there hasn''t been a new 2d mario for 11 years but 90% of switch owners NSMBU was a brand new 2d mario.

Mario Kart 8 was ported with DLC and has been getting more DLC (lots of it).  Mario Kart 8 has been marketed and supported well.



Slownenberg on 10 October 2023
zeldaring said:
curl-6 said:

3D and 2D Mario are fundamentally different, and there's only been one new 2D entry in the last 11 years. Heck, it's been nearly 4 years since the port of New Super Mario Bros U came out on Switch, that's a pretty standard gap between games in the same popular series.

I really don't see any sign of Mario fatigue, especially not on the h11eels of the movie being a massive hit.

That's Fine. I honestly expected both 3d world and nsmu to do much better  considering what mario kart 8 did. Let's remove fatigue and just say there are way to many mario platformers on switch for this to do 30 million. Like I just don't see the thirst for a mario platformers. You can say there hasn''t been a new 2d mario for 11 years but 90% of switch owners NSMBU was a brand new 2d mario.

Very flawed argument. NSMBUD was an unexciting last gen port of a Mario series that needed to be put out to pasture that launched in the month of January to little marketing as an afterthought to the previous holiday season....and it's still up at 16m now and legs still going.

NSMBUD is what makes the strongest case for Wonder hitting 30m or thereabouts. A brand new Mario game totally different from the rest, launching as the holiday title of the Switch's most likely last holiday with a 130m userbase (nearer to 140m by the time the holiday season is over). If NSMBUD can end up getting close to 20m then Wonder certainly has a good chance at hitting 30m. It will certainly vastly outsell NSMBUD and that game is still selling well at 16m.

And you don't see the thirst for Mario platformers??? wtheck?! Mario Platformers sell crazy amounts on Switch, and the Mario movie just became one of the biggest movies of all time....how in the world could anyone not see the thirst for Mario platformers? Such a bizarre thing to say.

So my question would be, with NSMBUD at 16m and still selling well, and Wonder coming out as a much more anticipated game that will clearly sell a ton more than NSMBUD, where could it fall that isn't at least close to 30m considering it's definitely going to way outsell a game that is looking to sell 18-20m? I mean I guess you could lowball it and say it'll only hit 25m, but 25m doesn't speak to any sort of fatigue for the series obviously, and 25m is of course a hell of a lot more than Spiderman is gonna sell on PS5. But honestly it'll probably be at or at least very close to 20m just this quarter as the big holiday game for the Switch, and it'll no doubt sell >5million next year, and since we're not getting another 2D Mario any time soon it'll likely keep selling not just to Switch owners in 2025 and later but also to next gen owners who pick up some of the big Switch games to play on the next gen system. It is very hard to make a case for it not hitting 25 million, so 30m would be a good bet. Maybe it ends up just short of 30m, I dunno we'll have to see how it plays out. But 30m is definitely a realistic target.



RolStoppable on 10 October 2023
zeldaring said:

I'm done with thread. I'll be back in a month to see who wins the prediction.

We'll be waiting for your apology.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Chrkeller on 10 October 2023
RolStoppable said:
zeldaring said:

I'm done with thread. I'll be back in a month to see who wins the prediction.

We'll be waiting for your apology.

To be fair it is just a prediction.  An apology is overkill.  If he is wrong, who cares?  I don't plan on apologizing if I'm wrong.