I am not surprised to read that someone still thinks that Yoshi's Island was a REAL Mario game. It's the same guy, after all.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
SMB Wonder v TotK (launch aligned) | |||
SMBW outsells TotK and hits 20m faster | 8 | 14.81% | |
SMBW outsells TotK with l... | 21 | 38.89% | |
TotK wins race to 20m and outsells SMBW | 21 | 38.89% | |
Holiday hype gets SMBW to... | 1 | 1.85% | |
New Metroid will outsell both combined | 3 | 5.56% | |
Total: | 54 |
SMBW v TotK lifetime | ||||
Mario | 3 | $1,830.00 | 50.00% | |
Link | 3 | $1,110.00 | 50.00% | |
Totals: | 6 | $2,940.00 | ||
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I am not surprised to read that someone still thinks that Yoshi's Island was a REAL Mario game. It's the same guy, after all.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Yoshi looks weird when he's riding another Yoshi... |
Definitely that too.
curl-6 said:
The NSMB series never evoked the same love or acclaim as the NES/SNES 2D Marios though, so for many Wonder is the first 2D Mario in over 30 years that's actually original and exciting. (World came out first in 1990 in Japan, then 1991 in America) Yoshi's Island isn't really a "2D Mario" game either as you play as Yoshi. When it comes to reception, you can't discount how people FEEL about something, as that as much as "facts" determines purchasing behaviour. TOTK has more casual appeal then pre-BOTW Zelda ever had, but 2D Mario is on another level, as a simple 2D sidescroller it can be played by folks for whom Zelda would just be too complicated. Folks like my parents probably wouldn't be able to get passed the tutorial in TOTK but they sure as heck can play 2D Mario. |
But to offset that, there are probably several million people who were super excited to get TotK and have no interest in 2D Mario. And again, I think TotK mostly beats out Wonder by a few million because I expect TotK to continue selling for many years to come, while Wonder I think essentially has one year of legs and then its on to Switch 2 and the next 3D Mario which is going to be hyped up far more than Wonder.
RolStoppable said: I am not surprised to read that someone still thinks that Yoshi's Island was a REAL Mario game. It's the same guy, after all. |
lol. So now we're just cutting out mainline Mario games to try to extend an argument past the facts. Convenient for an argument, just not true. haha. What else wasn't a REAL Mario game? Sunshine? Mario Bros 2? All the "New" games? Arguments don't work when you just make things up to help our your argument. That's when you've lost the argument!
Slownenberg said:
lol. So now we're just cutting out mainline Mario games to try to extend an argument past the facts. Convenient for an argument, just not true. haha. What else wasn't a REAL Mario game? Sunshine? Mario Bros 2? All the "New" games? Arguments don't work when you just make things up to help our your argument. That's when you've lost the argument! |
Of course Super Mario Sunshine wasn't a REAL Mario game.
My arguments in this thread are sound, but there comes a point when it's a waste of time and effort to continue a discussion. Now it's just a case of leaning back and resorting to the maxime "time makes more converts than reason."
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
RolStoppable said:
Of course Super Mario Sunshine wasn't a REAL Mario game. My arguments in this thread are sound, but there comes a point when it's a waste of time and effort to continue a discussion. Now it's just a case of leaning back and resorting to the maxime "time makes more converts than reason." |
I often wish that Super Mario Sunshine wasn't real at all.
Slownenberg said:
But to offset that, there are probably several million people who were super excited to get TotK and have no interest in 2D Mario. And again, I think TotK mostly beats out Wonder by a few million because I expect TotK to continue selling for many years to come, while Wonder I think essentially has one year of legs and then its on to Switch 2 and the next 3D Mario which is going to be hyped up far more than Wonder. |
3D Mario won't cut Wonder's legs; Galaxy 2 came out less than a year after NSMBWii and didn't cut its legs, nor did 3D World cut NSMBU's legs.
Switch 2's arrival won't cut it either because by then Switch 1 will have around 150 million units in the wild, and it will take years for its active userbase to transition to the new system.
When will the next 2D Mario game release? I think that's really what it comes down to, with respect to lifetime sales. If it's going to be another 10 years, then Wonder will win. But, if a new 2D Mario releases on Switch 2 within a couple of years of launch, Wonder will lose.
@VAMatt I feel like we will get the next 2D Mario in 2026 or 2027. Wonder (which had no deadline) is being released a little over 3 years after Mario Maker 2, and that's taking into account the fact there was a pandemic. 2027 might be too long of a gap actually. 2026, 3 years after Wonder, seems reasonable. It would also be about 2 years after the next 3D Mario (assuming we get it in 2024, which we likely will). Kind of like how Mario Maker 2 was just about 2 years after Odyssey.
That being said, I do think the next 2D Mario shouldn't be Mario Maker 3. Definitely do something new and then Mario Maker 3 about two years later (maybe make that paid DLC).
5:4 on poll v 4:6 betting is interesting.
Cowards not willing to put their money where their mouth is?
Is there a way to check commenters aren't hedging crow against VGbux?
Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)
Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!