Same, a March 2025 release would be Great, Switch can survive one more year, my only concern is when it will be announced.

After Xenoblade 3 and Tears of Kingdom, Monolith Soft is my main reason to get a new Switch. 

Yeah agreed I'd say zero chance it is delayed to 2025. Switch's NA and Europe sales are already struggling. This will definitely be the last Switch holiday. Nintendo ain't gonna be okay with a small 2024 holiday.

3D Mario and MK9 should be well ready by Fall 2024, and maybe Metroid Prime 4 as well, all hitting end of next year for an epic system launch for Nintendo.

Only way they could delay it to 2025 at this point is if they got aggressive with Switch sales to keep it going strong all the way through next year, meaning significant price cuts on hardware and software. Without that there's no way they are just gonna coast on only the Switch through holiday 2024.

Struggling in NA/EU based on what?

based on hw sales. NA and Europe can't even keep up with Japan these days. Sales have dropped off outside of Japan. Which is probably why they are about to start bundling a game in those regions.

In Nintendo’s most recent quarterly briefing they said shipments were down but sell through was up YoY in Americas/Europe.

Also having a pack in title in year 7 does not indicate lagging sales.

Wouldn't say the chance is zero. Nintendo was in their worst state in 2016 and everyone thought the NX(Switch) was gonna launch Holiday 2016 just cause of that, but it ended up releasing in March 2017 despite the Wii U being so dead in 2016. 

If Nintendo was willing to wait til March 2017 to release the Switch even with how much the Wii U was struggling, what makes you think that Nintendo won't do it with their most successful platform in history. There could be a possibility games might not be ready by Holiday 2024, and Nintendo might wanna do a non holiday launch again to have two sales bumps during the year rather than one and have ample enough supply for Holiday 2025. Also the Switch is still more than fine even with sales dropping, their software sales are still huge and profitable despite dropping hardware sales.

I'm still expecting a Holiday 2024 launch and that would be the preferable time frame to launch, but you can't completely rule out a 2025 launch either

Well I'm guessing BotW wasn't ready in 2016. I'm sure if they had launch games ready for holiday 2016 they would have launched Switch then because that would have made zero sense otherwise.

Now they've had ages to get the next 3D Mario and Mario Kart ready for next gen launch so it would be extremely surprising if those aren't very ready to go by next Fall. Not having next gen games ready for next Fall would be a huge blunder by Nintendo. Very different than the WiiU/Switch situation in which they had to quickly get a new system ready to go with games like half way through the normal life cycle of the previous system. So sure if they've made a huge blunder and somehow have been slacking on 3D Mario and MK9 then a 2025 release could happen but I just very strongly doubt they are that incompetent.

And actually I'm not expecting a holiday launch. I agree they would like to have the double sales bump and I think they'll release next gen in September or like early October. That way they can have Sept/Oct big launch sales with 3D Mario and then black friday thru xmas big holiday sales with MK9. They've just gotta make sure they have the capacity to have like 10+ million systems ready to go for those first few months.

So yeah, I basically completely rule out a 2025 launch. The only scenarios for a 2025 launch is, as mentioned, they've made a huge blunder in getting games ready for the launch and have to push it back to 2025, or they're going to aggressively start selling Switch with major price cuts next year to keep sales going the whole year. But I very much doubt either one of those scenarios have any chance of happening.

At least with 2016, they were able to ride the Pokemon Go hype, where they also released a new generation. Presumably, 2024 won't have those things. Besides a Pokemon remake, DK & Metroid, I can't think of anything big Nintendo could have for Switch 1 in late 2024. That's why I think it's imperative that new hardware launches near the end of 2024.

While I also won't rule out 2025, I think that would be a mistake. For a while, I actually wanted a holiday 2025 release, but that's because I assumed we'd get a Switch Pro in between, but that never happened.

2016 has nothing on 2024 when it comes to profit. In 2016 Nintendo was LOSING money and their brand was at their lowest point in their 40+ year history of being in the games business, Pokemon Go & Sun/Moon wasn't anywhere near enough to offset that.

Even if 2024 had nothing but remasters Nintendo would still be in much better shape than 2016, 2023 is projected to be near a top 5 most profitable year ever for Nintendo and 2024 will likely still be super profitable just off of evergreen software sales alone on the biggest install base Nintendo ever had even if it has nothing more. You can't act like 2016 was a better year than 2024, if Nintendo could afford to delay the Switch to 2017 even with 2016 being an awful year Nintendo can more than afford to delay the Switch 2 to 2025 if they want to.

Plus, it's definitely not impossible for a new Pokemon gen to launch on Switch, we just saw that the 3DS had one only 4 months before the Switch launched and the DS had new Pokemon games AFTER the 3DS launched. 

Thinking up funny or horrific world scenarios that would lead to "2027 or beyond" release date. Boy that would be a painful wait. :)