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Slownenberg on 16 October 2023
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javi741 said:
Slownenberg said:

Yeah agreed I'd say zero chance it is delayed to 2025. Switch's NA and Europe sales are already struggling. This will definitely be the last Switch holiday. Nintendo ain't gonna be okay with a small 2024 holiday.

3D Mario and MK9 should be well ready by Fall 2024, and maybe Metroid Prime 4 as well, all hitting end of next year for an epic system launch for Nintendo.

Only way they could delay it to 2025 at this point is if they got aggressive with Switch sales to keep it going strong all the way through next year, meaning significant price cuts on hardware and software. Without that there's no way they are just gonna coast on only the Switch through holiday 2024.

Wouldn't say the chance is zero. Nintendo was in their worst state in 2016 and everyone thought the NX(Switch) was gonna launch Holiday 2016 just cause of that, but it ended up releasing in March 2017 despite the Wii U being so dead in 2016. 

If Nintendo was willing to wait til March 2017 to release the Switch even with how much the Wii U was struggling, what makes you think that Nintendo won't do it with their most successful platform in history. There could be a possibility games might not be ready by Holiday 2024, and Nintendo might wanna do a non holiday launch again to have two sales bumps during the year rather than one and have ample enough supply for Holiday 2025. Also the Switch is still more than fine even with sales dropping, their software sales are still huge and profitable despite dropping hardware sales.

I'm still expecting a Holiday 2024 launch and that would be the preferable time frame to launch, but you can't completely rule out a 2025 launch either

Well I'm guessing BotW wasn't ready in 2016. I'm sure if they had launch games ready for holiday 2016 they would have launched Switch then because that would have made zero sense otherwise.

Now they've had ages to get the next 3D Mario and Mario Kart ready for next gen launch so it would be extremely surprising if those aren't very ready to go by next Fall. Not having next gen games ready for next Fall would be a huge blunder by Nintendo. Very different than the WiiU/Switch situation in which they had to quickly get a new system ready to go with games like half way through the normal life cycle of the previous system. So sure if they've made a huge blunder and somehow have been slacking on 3D Mario and MK9 then a 2025 release could happen but I just very strongly doubt they are that incompetent.

And actually I'm not expecting a holiday launch. I agree they would like to have the double sales bump and I think they'll release next gen in September or like early October. That way they can have Sept/Oct big launch sales with 3D Mario and then black friday thru xmas big holiday sales with MK9. They've just gotta make sure they have the capacity to have like 10+ million systems ready to go for those first few months.

So yeah, I basically completely rule out a 2025 launch. The only scenarios for a 2025 launch is, as mentioned, they've made a huge blunder in getting games ready for the launch and have to push it back to 2025, or they're going to aggressively start selling Switch with major price cuts next year to keep sales going the whole year. But I very much doubt either one of those scenarios have any chance of happening.