At least with 2016, they were able to ride the Pokemon Go hype, where they also released a new generation. Presumably, 2024 won't have those things. Besides a Pokemon remake, DK & Metroid, I can't think of anything big Nintendo could have for Switch 1 in late 2024. That's why I think it's imperative that new hardware launches near the end of 2024.
While I also won't rule out 2025, I think that would be a mistake. For a while, I actually wanted a holiday 2025 release, but that's because I assumed we'd get a Switch Pro in between, but that never happened.