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Forums - Sales Discussion - June Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

trunkswd on 27 July 2023
jvmkdg said:

https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/1684575651439972355?s=20

Based on his percentages PS5 in the US should be at 14.17M at the end of May. We have it at 14.23M. So a 60K overtrack. I'll be sure to do those adjustments before doing June estimates for the Americas tomorrow. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Shadow1980 on 27 July 2023

The PS4 had sold 13,760,700 units in the U.S. as of May 2016. If the PS5 has sold 3% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,520.

As an alternate calculation, the PS3 sold 7,745,000 units. If the PS5 sold 83% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,350.

So, that narrows it down to a range of only 170 units, which isn't bad considering we don't have anything more granular than whole numbers. Splitting the difference and rounding to the nearest 100 gives us a lifetime total of 14,173,400 for the PS5 in the U.S. as of May 2023.

We don't have official numbers for many if not most months, and the estimates I have combined with official numbers put it at 14,068,000, so I have it undertracked by a bit over 0.7%, or 105k units. That's spread out over 31 months, an average monthly error of 3387 units. Not bad with the estimating from myself and others.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

trunkswd on 27 July 2023
Shadow1980 said:

The PS4 had sold 13,760,700 units in the U.S. as of May 2016. If the PS5 has sold 3% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,520.

As an alternate calculation, the PS3 sold 7,745,000 units. If the PS5 sold 83% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,350.

So, that narrows it down to a range of only 170 units, which isn't bad considering we don't have anything more granular than whole numbers. Splitting the difference and rounding to the nearest 100 gives us a lifetime total of 14,173,400 for the PS5 in the U.S. as of May 2023.

We don't have official numbers for many if not most months, and the estimates I have combined with official numbers put it at 14,068,000, so I have it undertracked by a bit over 0.7%, or 105k units. That's spread out over 31 months, an average monthly error of 3387 units. Not bad with the estimating from myself and others.

And my work with VGC has the PS5 in the US at 14,231,411 through May. So about 58,011 too high. Overall being so close with our estimates given the limited data is great work.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

DonFerrari on 28 July 2023
Shadow1980 said:

The PS4 had sold 13,760,700 units in the U.S. as of May 2016. If the PS5 has sold 3% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,520.

As an alternate calculation, the PS3 sold 7,745,000 units. If the PS5 sold 83% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,350.

So, that narrows it down to a range of only 170 units, which isn't bad considering we don't have anything more granular than whole numbers. Splitting the difference and rounding to the nearest 100 gives us a lifetime total of 14,173,400 for the PS5 in the U.S. as of May 2023.

We don't have official numbers for many if not most months, and the estimates I have combined with official numbers put it at 14,068,000, so I have it undertracked by a bit over 0.7%, or 105k units. That's spread out over 31 months, an average monthly error of 3387 units. Not bad with the estimating from myself and others.

Considering he didn't give even single digit precision on this predictions It could even be said that it is 2.00001% to 3.9999% over PS4 and 82.000001% to 83.99999% over PS3 as well. I would use this to see if perhaps vgc isn't really on target or even undertracked (could even be overtracked). If he at least had given a 3.0% and 83.0% we could ignore the variation on that next number (even if it would be between 2.95 and 3.04, 82.95 and 83.04).

And VGC even if there could be a bigger variation like I said from Mat statement was still very much on target, congrats trunks.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

trunkswd on 28 July 2023

June NPD/Cricana has been delayed to next Wednesday, August 2. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Around the Network
CosmicSex on 28 July 2023

Are we really gonna get monthly data two weeks apart? Or should we expect July's data to delayed as well? I must say I have no confidence in that August 16 reporting date for July data. They clearly have an internal issue. I heard it cost a pretty penny to get the data from Circana/NPD. Do they offer refunds for delayed data lol? And finally, are they hiring... because it seems they could use some help 🤣



trunkswd on 28 July 2023
CosmicSex said:

Are we really gonna get monthly data two weeks apart? Or should we expect July's data to delayed as well? I must say I have no confidence in that August 16 reporting date for July data. They clearly have an internal issue. I heard it cost a pretty penny to get the data from Circana/NPD. Do they offer refunds for delayed data lol? And finally, are they hiring... because it seems they could use some help 🤣

I agree that I find it unlikely July data will be out just two weeks after June when June data will have taken them a month to do.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Shadow1980 on 28 July 2023
CosmicSex said:

Are we really gonna get monthly data two weeks apart? Or should we expect July's data to delayed as well? I must say I have no confidence in that August 16 reporting date for July data. They clearly have an internal issue. I heard it cost a pretty penny to get the data from Circana/NPD. Do they offer refunds for delayed data lol? And finally, are they hiring... because it seems they could use some help 🤣

Meanwhile, in Japan a simple video game magazine has been delivering weekly sales data every Friday, for free(!), on time almost every time. Sometimes they're a few days late because of a holiday, but Famitsu has had remarkable consistency ever since they started reporting sales data back in the 90s. It probably helps that they're an actual print periodical. Makes me wish the U.S. had a video game magazine here offering up sales data each week instead of some big market research firm that wants thousands of dollars for access to their data (despite being fairly open about the data 15-20 years ago). If I was ever so lucky to win the lottery, I'd start up my own sales tracker. Not that that will ever happen, but a man can dream.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

trunkswd on 28 July 2023
Shadow1980 said:
CosmicSex said:

Are we really gonna get monthly data two weeks apart? Or should we expect July's data to delayed as well? I must say I have no confidence in that August 16 reporting date for July data. They clearly have an internal issue. I heard it cost a pretty penny to get the data from Circana/NPD. Do they offer refunds for delayed data lol? And finally, are they hiring... because it seems they could use some help 🤣

Meanwhile, in Japan a simple video game magazine has been delivering weekly sales data every Friday, for free(!), on time almost every time. Sometimes they're a few days late because of a holiday, but Famitsu has had remarkable consistency ever since they started reporting sales data back in the 90s. It probably helps that they're an actual print periodical. Makes me wish the U.S. had a video game magazine here offering up sales data each week instead of some big market research firm that wants thousands of dollars for access to their data (despite being fairly open about the data 15-20 years ago). If I was ever so lucky to win the lottery, I'd start up my own sales tracker. Not that that will ever happen, but a man can dream.

If we had the money to pay for more sales data I would love that. But we sadly don't. It is amazing how consistent Famitsu has been for so long, while NPD continues to provide less and less data. If I ever won the lottery I'd buy VGChartz and see about what it would take to get full access to software data from retailers and digital stores.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

DonFerrari on 28 July 2023
Shadow1980 said:
CosmicSex said:

Are we really gonna get monthly data two weeks apart? Or should we expect July's data to delayed as well? I must say I have no confidence in that August 16 reporting date for July data. They clearly have an internal issue. I heard it cost a pretty penny to get the data from Circana/NPD. Do they offer refunds for delayed data lol? And finally, are they hiring... because it seems they could use some help 🤣

Meanwhile, in Japan a simple video game magazine has been delivering weekly sales data every Friday, for free(!), on time almost every time. Sometimes they're a few days late because of a holiday, but Famitsu has had remarkable consistency ever since they started reporting sales data back in the 90s. It probably helps that they're an actual print periodical. Makes me wish the U.S. had a video game magazine here offering up sales data each week instead of some big market research firm that wants thousands of dollars for access to their data (despite being fairly open about the data 15-20 years ago). If I was ever so lucky to win the lottery, I'd start up my own sales tracker. Not that that will ever happen, but a man can dream.

And I don't ever remember seeing any credible entity challenging the data from Famitsu for any relevant inconsistency on their tracking. One question I have since I don't follow them as close, do they track digital sales with any frequency?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."