June Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

[DonFerrari]

Shadow1980 said:

The PS4 had sold 13,760,700 units in the U.S. as of May 2016. If the PS5 has sold 3% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,520.

As an alternate calculation, the PS3 sold 7,745,000 units. If the PS5 sold 83% more than that, that would put it at around 14,173,350.

So, that narrows it down to a range of only 170 units, which isn't bad considering we don't have anything more granular than whole numbers. Splitting the difference and rounding to the nearest 100 gives us a lifetime total of 14,173,400 for the PS5 in the U.S. as of May 2023.

We don't have official numbers for many if not most months, and the estimates I have combined with official numbers put it at 14,068,000, so I have it undertracked by a bit over 0.7%, or 105k units. That's spread out over 31 months, an average monthly error of 3387 units. Not bad with the estimating from myself and others.

Considering he didn't give even single digit precision on this predictions It could even be said that it is 2.00001% to 3.9999% over PS4 and 82.000001% to 83.99999% over PS3 as well. I would use this to see if perhaps vgc isn't really on target or even undertracked (could even be overtracked). If he at least had given a 3.0% and 83.0% we could ignore the variation on that next number (even if it would be between 2.95 and 3.04, 82.95 and 83.04).

And VGC even if there could be a bigger variation like I said from Mat statement was still very much on target, congrats trunks.