I don't think Nintendo gives a shit about the final LTD of the Switch nearly as much as people here do. 

It's a nice to have, it's not a must have thing for them, the most important thing for the company today I gauruntee you if you were inside the company is the Switch successor. 

That matters more to Nintendo today than anything else and I would venture to say probably has the majority of the development resources for it. It's not a coincidence that the 3D Mario team, the Mario Kart team, all these major teams at Nintendo have been deathly quiet the last 3 years or doing small scale tasks, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what they are working on. 

They don't care about LTD but they care about the long run which is the point being made here LTD sales is not even mentioned here notice how instead it's more about taking advantage of the safety net they have to have a smoother less pressured transition into the next platform, LTD don't matter at this point because it will get to its milestone mark regardless what does matter is the fact that the momentum from these sales is an indicator of the market towards the product which is still going blow for blow each week with two newer platforms this gives a clearer picture in how realistic the need to replace it quickly really is.

Being quiet for 3 years doesn't debunk what is being put forward because it just means they'll be quiet for an extra year and in the mean time we have some releases to tie us over not to mention some of the major teams have recently released software such as TOTK, XBC3, Pikmin (upcoming) etc... it's not like it's a drought and the is complete silence.

Or you know like they are prepared and ready for Switch 2 in 2024. That could also very easily be the case. 

I think you are operating from the POV that Nintendo is inherintely unprepared and thus just needs more time because well they need more time. 

But I suspect they have been planning this and laser focused on Switch 2 for many years now frankly. A lot of their bigger teams have been quiet, way too quiet for a long time now. It's by design IMO. They made the call for example I think to not give the Switch its own Mario Kart game years ago and instead "save" that for Switch 2 and just let the Switch have lower budget DLC content of old tracks that a junior team could remaster. That's by design, that's not random happenstance. 

Now they can launch Switch 2 and feel confident that they'll have the biggest IP in their IP drawer (Mario Kart) ready to go for that system early on, possibly even day 1. 

Same with Odyssey 2 ... I think they made a call probably even years ago now at this point that Odyssey 2 (or whatever the next 3D Mario is called) was going to skip the current Switch and go straight to the next system. 

They likely know with a new Mario Kart and new 3D Mario ... they have a pretty rock solid 1-2 foundation to base a launch off of. I don't think this is a case of the calendar turning to 2022 or 2023 and them waking up and saying "ok, what are we gonna do with the next system". They've had Mario Kart Next and 3D Mario Next at minimum in their back pocket for the next system's launch year I think for a long, long time now. 

You yourself are operating from assumed notions as nothing I've said highlights them being unprepared in fact it says the very opposite rather than trying to read between lines that aren't there read what I'm actually putting forward in that they have a huge safety net and no pressure to press on with the type of suggestions people have made not only here but beforehand hence why we're still in 2023 with no successor or any pro model it's not some mystery why as the market situation hasn't required them to Nintendo may work in their own way but this is just them using the additional time to refine what they have planned, people two years ago were even suggesting TOTK would be a cross gen launch title.

Switch has it's own MK game it's MK8D porting it was a clear decision to give Switch another killer app early on and to save costs no need for another one hence why they did DLC to differentiate it from the WiiU version, Nintendo are always focused on their next platform as is evident from Switch being announced as NX two years into the life of WiiU then coming out two years later that's how platform holders and R&D operate in order to react to their situation in the market and right now the situation isn't exactly demanding it.

Early 2025 itself is not even that far off of a release date.

in all of your posts you seem to continue to ignore the investor aspect of the equation. yes, as soundwave and i and a few others have both said, the switch is still doing quite well for itself. however, that does not mean it doesn't need to be phased out sooner rather than later.

investors don't look at numbers and go "oh, you're still doing so well for a system in its 7th year!" they would instead think "this is your third year of lowering sales, what're you going to do about it?" the answer to that question is, a successor. that's why generations are a thing. this generation won't be much different as nintendo does not seem to be going the route of releasing a switch pro, instead scrapping it for the OLED and most likely carrying that R&D over to the switch 2.

also, i agree early 2025 is not that far off. in fact, i originally argued that it'd be released in october/holiday of 2024 or Q1 2025. both of these dates basically still lead to the same conclusion, that a successor is needed sooner rather than later. at that point, we're basically fighting semantics if you think holiday 2024 is so much different than Q1 2025 that it doesn't play into what people have been saying.

Yet non of you have specified why any investor would suggest a quicker release dat you're only saying investors are a factor and the the irony is I know from when I used to work in finance that they'd do the opposite of what a few of you are saying as the sales are even beating out the PS5 in some weeks it's not as good a point as you think it is as those sales along with the online subs are raking in a ton of money which non of them will suggest to cut off. Fact is the current market situation allows them to wait.

Cross-gen games are possible for the Switch 2, but not certain. Cross-gen games have been a thing for a long time with third parties, and has been commonplace since the Gen 6-to-Gen 7 transition (FIFA 14 having the distinction of being the only game released simultaneously across three generations), but was until recently a rarity for first-party games. Sony & MS didn't really get into it until this generation, but I think the unusual circumstances at that particular generational transition (big Gen 8 install base, plus supply chain issues causing shortages of Gen 9 consoles and rapid discontinuation of Gen 8 consoles) made it a necessity. Nintendo has only had two cross-gen games that I'm aware of, both times on systems with similar levels of power (Twilight Princess on GC & Wii, Breath of the Wild on Wii U & Switch).

However, I do think the Switch 2 will most likely be backwards compatible. Unless Nintendo wants to spend a lot of money porting a bunch of Switch games to a new system that will almost certainly have the same form function (hybrid console using small cartridges), it's most likely the Switch 2 can play Switch games. This would mean that early adopters still have those last-gen games to play on their new system. Considering a relatively solid release schedule (TOTK, Pikmin 4, and Super Mario Wonder) in what is likely to be the Switch's last year and the likelihood of not many mega-blockbuster-tier titles early in the Switch 2's first year due to so many popular series having just had games released in the past year or so, making sure people have a lot of games to play on their new system is important. Also, early adopters could still buy late-era Switch games they haven't gotten around to buying yet and play them on their shiny new console. I know I've routinely availed myself of backwards compatibility on every system I've owned that's had it (the PS2, 360, Wii, Wii U, PS5, & Series X), especially early on when I didn't have many games for the newer system. If the Switch 2 is indeed backwards compatible, I may even just sell my launch model Switch to recoup my costs, just as I sold my Xbox One X to help pay for my Series X.

Also, agreed on budget models of consoles. Not just the Switch, but several other systems throughout the years (the 360, 3DS, PS5, & XBS come to mind) have all shown that a low price isn't everything, and that people will willingly pay more for a premium experience, with the most expensive SKUs of those systems being the most in-demand ones.

To address the Switch specifically, it has three distinct models on the market, so that gives us a great example of people's buying habits when having to choose between multiple models. The Lite was $100 cheaper than the OG Switch, but it was definitely a "you get what you pay for" deal, i.e., smaller screen, less battery life, no dock (and therefore no TV play), and no detachable Joy-cons. Outside of its launch month, it was consistently outsold by the OG model. The OLED is $50 more than the OG model, but most new adopters are clearly willing to pay that premium for a better device as it's been by far the most popular model since its release.

"Well, our revenues are projected to be down massively and total unit sales down to near-record lows next year if we don't release our new system, but on the upside we pulled back ahead of the PS5 for a couple of months" is not exactly something a businessman would say, nor something an investor would like to hear.

Nintendo isn't competing directly with Sony & MS. They've been doing their own thing for 17 years across three generations. The market situation is that "The Switch is well past its peak and continuing to decline, and our business will suffer continued losses in sales the longer we wait to release a new system." Revenues are down, profits are down, and it's because they're at a generational transition. They will not delay the Switch 2 any longer than necessary. If it's ready to go next year, it will release next year.

No real argument put forward other than an assertion, record lows for the Switch are normal sales for everyone else and guess what Nintendo may do their own thing but investors are very much aware of their competitors especially Sony to being competitive with them in the platform's seventh year when it's past its peak backs my point. They won't delay the Switch successor any longer than necessary but they won't bring it out any quicker than it needs to be either after all remember when the NX/Switch was meant to be out in 2016 according to many as it made more sense but was unveil to arrive in 2017 we even had a massive bet thread on it.

if you worked in finance then i'd expect you to understand how capitalism works. capitalism does not like anything but growth, end of story. if you're not growing, you're dying. yes, nintendo is still making tons of money, but sales have been down YoY and that's basically all that matters. (including SW.)

you also keep bringing up this online subscription money but, how would it be getting cut off by releasing a new console? nintendo has never shut off online immediately after releasing a new console and they will, of course, carry this sub model over to the next gen. they will continue to rake in that money in either scenario.

in the end, the proof will be in the pudding when they release the switch 2 next holiday or Q1 2025. though, i'm guessing you'll feel correct anyway as our timelines overlap. what is the difference to you in Q1 2025 vs. holiday 2024? if you were making this argument to say they'll release switch 2 holiday 2025 or 2026, then i'd get why we are arguing more but, you're not. 

I personally think nintendo isn't making another console until 2026. With the success of TotK eclipsing that of Animal Crossing, I think nintendo realizes the new possibilities! New 3d Mario holiday next year will do just the trick.

...coming back to reality, I believe that Metroid Prime 4, MarioKart 9 (or 10?), and a new 3D Mainline Mario will all come during the first year of Switch Successor. Announcement coming soon...I would presume maybe not until Winter/Spring'24 will they announce anything, prepping for a late-Spring 2024 launch.