switch is a both. so combine  consoles with handheld. No way in hell switch 2 doesn't do 90 million.

The transition from 3DS to Switch is a good blueprint for how to proceed.
Switch was a huge hit right of the gate, but without the 3DS being killed off prematurely, it was similar to how they handled the transion from NES to SNES back in the day.

3ds was already dead when switch came out. it was hardly selling anywhere except japan.

Big hitters would be more sparse.
I just can't see releasing another Mario kart, animal crossing, smash, on switch.
The released might be remasters of old games, ports, tomodachi life, ww, tp. While mk, mario wonders and zelda carry the most sales.
The evergreen will carry the console (specially with some recently released). However, it is getting to the point of saturation.
BTW, I'd predict between 10 to 18 million sold per year, and pretty healthy software sales.

Switch could handle 3 or more years.


Meanwhile, with a strong switch, there is no rush to devrlop the sucessor. It could wait a time to get better/cheaper tech and the sucessor could be launched at appropriated time. The longer the wait difference would be bigger, helping to feel like a new product.

It wasn't dead, global sales were still at meaningful levels.

And that doesn't matter anyway, the strategy of continuing support for the older system with small to medium games while reserving killer apps ifor the new system is still a good fit for getting a Switch successor off the ground while still making money from the Switch 1's large base.

A prolonged crossgen period like we've seen with PS4/5 just wouldn't be in Nintendo's interests, the risk of Switch 2 failing to get off the ground would be needlessly high. Sony can count on most of their base being eager to upgrade, Nintendo cannot.

The Switch should still have a decent flow of games even in 2024 and 2025, but I think exclusives are pretty much gone with Switch 2 release possibly next year, all games will work on Switch 2 and will run on Switch 2 at 4K IMO but there will also be "cross gen" games that have other enhancements on Switch 2 beyond just resolution increase. Universal is opening the DK section next year I think so I think a DK platformer will release alongside the new theme park area in 2024.

2024:
Peach platformer
Luigi's Mansion 2 remaster
F-Zero GX remaster
Zelda: Wind Waker HD/4K
Metroid Prime 4 (cross-gen w/Switch 2)
Donkey Kong Country New (cross-gen holiday release)

2025 -
Kid Icarus Uprising Remaster
Zelda: Twilight Princess HD/4K Remaster
Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door Remaster
Pokemon Mainline game (Cross-Gen)

I’m not sure I believe this theory that PS/XB gamers are willing to upgrade but Nintendo fans aren’t. For example, look at the popularity of the OLED model, you have millions of people willing to upgrade to a more expensive model for a better screen, imagine how many people would upgrade for better graphics/resolution/frame rate.

Switch launch-March 3, 2017

Switch shipments as of Sept 30, 2018-22.86 million (~19 months)

Switch OLED launch-October 8, 2021

Switch OLED shipments as of March 31, 2023-15.02 million (~18 months)

OLED is a more expensive model with a better screen and a couple minor QOL improvements, games don’t perform better on it and it doesn’t have any exclusive games or features yet it’s the most popular sku since it released and is doing pretty well launches aligned compared to the original model.

As long as Switch 2 is a pretty straight forward successor that isn’t way more expensive or focused on some new gimmick that people don’t want (3D screen or Wii U game pad) than I don’t see why cross-gen releases would prevent it from succeeding.

@Soundwave Honestly, I don't really think DK & Metroid need to be cross-gen. We will likely have things like 3D Mario & Mario Kart launching with the new system so I feel it would be better for DK & Metroid, which are lower tier franchises, to be on the bigger install base. Also, definitely don't see Pokemon being cross gen in 2025. That will likely be Switch 2 only. Could see us getting a Pokemon remake in 2024 for Switch though.

Thing is I think Nintendo felt the same thing about 3DS. 

"Wow, people are willing to pay $199.99 for the DSi XL, surely they'll easily pay $250 for the 3DS". They didn't just randomly pull $250 out of their ass, they thought it would be easy to sell at that price because people were buying DSi XL's for $199, surely $250 for a 3DS that was a full upgrade + 3D screen would be easy peasy. 

Now sure, maybe times have changed, but I would expect Nintendo to not be too cocky, memories of their senior staff are long and they'll remember full well what happened with the 3DS and Wii U. 

It's going to be kind of a non-distinction in a way any how I think because any/all Switch games I think even this year's games will be forwards compatible with Switch 2. 

You'll probably be able to play Mario Wonder and Mario RPG Remake for example in 4K on the Switch 2. Probably you'll just have to download a patch if you have a Switch 2. 

Metroid they might keep as cross platform because it's a lower end IP that frankly could use the 100 million userbase the Switch has to maximize its sales potential. 

Donkey Kong probably a little bit of the same thing, if its a new theme park they probably want all kids to have access to it. 

These games can still be helpful releases for Switch 2 because they'll be 4K on the Switch 2. For Metroid Prime 4 they could increase the graphical fidelity in other ways too (like 60 fps, better textures).