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Forums - Nintendo - If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

curl-6 on 27 June 2023
IcaroRibeiro said:
curl-6 said:

That's the thing though, we can't assume Nintendo won't make any mistakes with Switch 2.

I'm not saying there can't be any crossgen games, just that a PS4-5 approach of almost everything being crossgen for the first two years wouldn't be the right fit for Nintendo's situation. Now that they only have one hardware line they have no backup, they can't afford to be lackadaisical.

If they make mistakes, their games being cross gen or not are the last thing that matters. Wii U and Game Cube games were not cross gen and the consoles bombed. Wii and Switch games were not cross gen and both consoles smashed.

The presence or absence of cross gen titles do not make a console launch successful, nor make a console launch a flop 

However, the presence of a cross gen titles will guaranteed software revenues will be still high on Switch to at least offset a Switch 2 from bombing. If Switch 2 bombs (not gonna happen  but still) the last thing Nintendo wants is to not have software selling on original Switch, because that would mean 0 revenue coming forward 

Mistakes doesn't have to mean Wii U level mistakes. Could be 3DS level mistakes where you can salvage it.

You need to give people incentives to upgrade. Would Switch have been as successful as it was out of the gate if all it's first and second year games were crossgen with 3DS?

Last edited by curl-6 - on 27 June 2023

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160rmf on 27 June 2023

^^^ You talk like if the Switch difference in hardware capability with its successor will be the same as the 3ds against Switch. If you replaced 3ds with WiiU then you would have a more feasible scenario, but then you remember that Switch in its first year had Wii U games as most of its evergreen titles lol



 

 

We reap what we sow

zorg1000 on 27 June 2023
curl-6 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

If they make mistakes, their games being cross gen or not are the last thing that matters. Wii U and Game Cube games were not cross gen and the consoles bombed. Wii and Switch games were not cross gen and both consoles smashed.

The presence or absence of cross gen titles do not make a console launch successful, nor make a console launch a flop 

However, the presence of a cross gen titles will guaranteed software revenues will be still high on Switch to at least offset a Switch 2 from bombing. If Switch 2 bombs (not gonna happen  but still) the last thing Nintendo wants is to not have software selling on original Switch, because that would mean 0 revenue coming forward 

Mistakes doesn't have to mean Wii U level mistakes. Could be 3DS level mistakes where you can salvage it.

You need to give people incentives to upgrade. Would Switch have been as successful as it was out of the gate if all it's first and second year games were crossgen with 3DS?

You’re looking at it the wrong way, the better question is would Switch has been as successful if all the 3DS games that released in 2017/2018 were also on Switch?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

IcaroRibeiro on 27 June 2023
curl-6 said:

Mistakes doesn't have to mean Wii U level mistakes. Could be 3DS level mistakes where you can salvage it.

You need to give people incentives to upgrade. Would Switch have been as successful as it was out of the gate if all it's first and second year games were crossgen with 3DS?

Very likely yes, BOTW was a cross gen launch title after all. Switch also launched with no major Pokemon game, 3DS indeed had a mainline Pokemon schedule to release couple of months before Switch debut

People upgraded regardless

Many of the cross gen titles are titles that started being developed by the original hardware and end being released on the new hardware to increase the library. With Switch 2 being backwards compatible, there are no reasons to not release as many cross gen games as possible

Granted, some games are developed with a vision that cannot be fully executed on old hardware must be left behind. Such games take a bit of time to be developed and we probably aren't seen many of them being release at launch. The safest and most consumer friendly route is to release cords gen titles in the first and second years. On the first 2 years a successful console is likely to be capped by production and stocks anyway

On the third year with a healthier production lines Nintendo can start to unleash many of their very strong exclusives, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, etc 



curl-6 on 27 June 2023
160rmf said:

^^^ You talk like if the Switch difference in hardware capability with its successor will be the same as the 3ds against Switch. If you replaced 3ds with WiiU then you would have a more feasible scenario, but then you remember that Switch in its first year had Wii U games as most of its evergreen titles lol

Switch and its successor will likely be closer to a 3DS-Switch power gap than the small Wii U-Switch power gap. Only 2 of Switch's major 2017 games were from Wii U, and hardly anybody owned a Wii U while a massive audience owns a Switch.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Mistakes doesn't have to mean Wii U level mistakes. Could be 3DS level mistakes where you can salvage it.

You need to give people incentives to upgrade. Would Switch have been as successful as it was out of the gate if all it's first and second year games were crossgen with 3DS?

You’re looking at it the wrong way, the better question is would Switch has been as successful if all the 3DS games that released in 2017/2018 were also on Switch?

That's not what I mean; I'm not saying nothing can be shared, I'm saying the successor will need big exclusives.



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curl-6 on 27 June 2023
IcaroRibeiro said:
curl-6 said:

Mistakes doesn't have to mean Wii U level mistakes. Could be 3DS level mistakes where you can salvage it.

You need to give people incentives to upgrade. Would Switch have been as successful as it was out of the gate if all it's first and second year games were crossgen with 3DS?

Very likely yes, BOTW was a cross gen launch title after all. Switch also launched with no major Pokemon game, 3DS indeed had a mainline Pokemon schedule to release couple of months before Switch debut

People upgraded regardless

Many of the cross gen titles are titles that started being developed by the original hardware and end being released on the new hardware to increase the library. With Switch 2 being backwards compatible, there are no reasons to not release as many cross gen games as possible

Granted, some games are developed with a vision that cannot be fully executed on old hardware must be left behind. Such games take a bit of time to be developed and we probably aren't seen many of them being release at launch. The safest and most consumer friendly route is to release cords gen titles in the first and second years. On the first 2 years a successful console is likely to be capped by production and stocks anyway

On the third year with a healthier production lines Nintendo can start to unleash many of their very strong exclusives, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, etc 

You're forgetting that there would be no games like BOTW on Switch if it was entirely crossgen with 3DS. Crossgen has limitations.

There's no point in them having an intentionally weak first two years when they can win big from day 1.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 27 June 2023

zorg1000 on 27 June 2023
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

While true that Nintendo sales are inconsistent, that’s due to major mistakes by Nintendo rather than fans needing convincing. From things like alienating 3rd parties by sticking with cartridges or chasing gimmicks nobody asked for, it’s been specific fuck ups that have hurt them.

As for PS/XB, I don’t agree at all. While there is a pretty consistent total sales for PS+XB consoles, the individual market share has varied widely. It went from 85/15 to 50/50 when Sony fucked up to 70/30 when Microsoft fucked up.

Besides that argument can be made for Nintendo as well, despite making a bunch of foolish decisions last generation, they were still able to sell ~90 million units of hardware between 3DS & Wii U.

As long as Nintendo doesn’t make any huge mistakes that alienate 3rd parties or focus on unwanted gimmicks that jack up the price or have frequent 1st party software droughts than I don’t think cross-gen titles will hurt them.

And I’m not saying all games need to be cross-gen, like let’s say Nintendo releases 8-10 1st party retail titles in it’s first 12 months with 3-4 of them being big made for the ground up exclusives and the other 5-6 being mid-level cross-gen titles and a couple updated Switch 1 ports.

That's the thing though, we can't assume Nintendo won't make any mistakes with Switch 2.

I'm not saying there can't be any crossgen games, just that a PS4-5 approach of almost everything being crossgen for the first two years wouldn't be the right fit for Nintendo's situation. Now that they only have one hardware line they have no backup, they can't afford to be lackadaisical.

If they make big mistakes that cause Switch 2 to be undesirable than it doesn’t matter if the games are exclusive or not, the device is failing regardless, but if they are cross-gen than at least the software will have a chance to sell to its full potential.

They do have a backup, it’s called Switch, if the successor fails than you can pivot back to Switch and treat the new device as an experiment or a revision and get to work on a new successor. If they abandon Switch 1 and Switch 2 fails than they are really fucked.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 27 June 2023
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

That's the thing though, we can't assume Nintendo won't make any mistakes with Switch 2.

I'm not saying there can't be any crossgen games, just that a PS4-5 approach of almost everything being crossgen for the first two years wouldn't be the right fit for Nintendo's situation. Now that they only have one hardware line they have no backup, they can't afford to be lackadaisical.

If they make big mistakes that cause Switch 2 to be undesirable than it doesn’t matter if the games are exclusive or not, the device is failing regardless, but if they are cross-gen than at least the software will have a chance to sell to its full potential.

They do have a backup, it’s called Switch, if the successor fails than you can pivot back to Switch and treat the new device as an experiment or a revision and get to work on a new successor. If they abandon Switch 1 and Switch 2 fails than they are really fucked.

Already addressed that; mistakes doesn't mean unsalvageable, see 3DS.

And I literally never said they should abandon Switch immediately. Just that not everything needs to be crossgen.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 27 June 2023

160rmf on 27 June 2023
curl-6 said:
160rmf said:

^^^ You talk like if the Switch difference in hardware capability with its successor will be the same as the 3ds against Switch. If you replaced 3ds with WiiU then you would have a more feasible scenario, but then you remember that Switch in its first year had Wii U games as most of its evergreen titles lol

Switch and its successor will likely be closer to a 3DS-Switch power gap than the small Wii U-Switch power gap. Only 2 of Switch's major 2017 games were from Wii U, and hardly anybody owned a Wii U while a massive audience owns a Switch.

That's pretty bold, I think the difference will be something between Switch vs 3ds and Switch vs Wii U.

Yeah despite Wii U being a failure it's was a hardware that was planned to release an ambitious open world Zelda game. If the 3ds was the only base for a HD portable console, yeah that would be a pretty unappealing lineup.

My point is that Switch is a pretty capable hardware, so nothing that is developed basing on its capabilities would be something blasé 

BTW I am not full cross gen team, games that were envisioned based on the next nintendo console should be exclusives, not downgraded to run on Switch 

Last edited by 160rmf - on 27 June 2023

 

 

We reap what we sow

zorg1000 on 27 June 2023
curl-6 said:
160rmf said:

^^^ You talk like if the Switch difference in hardware capability with its successor will be the same as the 3ds against Switch. If you replaced 3ds with WiiU then you would have a more feasible scenario, but then you remember that Switch in its first year had Wii U games as most of its evergreen titles lol

Switch and its successor will likely be closer to a 3DS-Switch power gap than the small Wii U-Switch power gap. Only 2 of Switch's major 2017 games were from Wii U, and hardly anybody owned a Wii U while a massive audience owns a Switch.

zorg1000 said:

You’re looking at it the wrong way, the better question is would Switch has been as successful if all the 3DS games that released in 2017/2018 were also on Switch?

That's not what I mean; I'm not saying nothing can be shared, I'm saying the successor will need big exclusives.

Than we’re just arguing semantics, look at the example I gave a few posts back.

Super Switch, November 2024, $349.99

A standard next-gen device, think NES to SNES or PS4 to PS5. It can have some new features but not the main focus and nothing that inflates the price, something like HD rumble rather than 3D screen, Kinect 2.0 or Wii U Gamepad.


Launch+first full year lineup

exclusives-3D Mario, Mario Kart 9, Star Fox reboot, Xenoblade Chronices X-2

cross gen-Metroid Prime 4, 2.5D Donkey Kong, Fire Emblem Warriors Engage, Pokemon Let’s Go 2 or Legends 2

updated ports-Tears of the Kingdom, Super Mario Wonder

Would this hypothetical scenario be to your liking?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.