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Forums - Sales Discussion - March NPD (Circana) 2023 Thread + Predictions

Norion on 19 April 2023
trunkswd said:
Norion said:

PS5 doing amazing after so much pent up demand but man Xbox Series being down this much is rough. It's not doing worse than the Xbox One so it's not truly terrible but if this keeps up it's only gonna do somewhat better than that did long term which isn't good considering how the Xbox One did.

With how good sales were a year ago for Xbox Series X|S I was thinking it could have done 70M-80M lifetime. With how sales are right now I see it more like 60M-70M. Starfield (And having decent Xbox Series X stock) will be the true test to how much a big AAA game can come for Xbox that isn't Halo, Gears, or Forza.

I thought it had a shot at reaching 70m before but now I think that's not possible unless Starfield impresses and they have a strong 2024 with various notable games like Hellblade 2 hitting the mark combined with the impact of Activision Blizzard games being on Game Pass. September this year till December next year is the last chance for the Xbox Series to end up being more than just a somewhat better Xbox One sales wise. 



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AJNShelton on 19 April 2023
trunkswd said:
Norion said:

PS5 doing amazing after so much pent up demand but man Xbox Series being down this much is rough. It's not doing worse than the Xbox One so it's not truly terrible but if this keeps up it's only gonna do somewhat better than that did long term which isn't good considering how the Xbox One did.

With how good sales were a year ago for Xbox Series X|S I was thinking it could have done 70M-80M lifetime. With how sales are right now I see it more like 60M-70M. Starfield (And having decent Xbox Series X stock) will be the true test to how much a big AAA game can come for Xbox that isn't Halo, Gears, or Forza.

I really don't see how the Xbox gonna end up selling more than 60 million. It's Xbox One all over again, people are losing faith in the console, so from now on it will probably be huge discounts with Game Pass for 3 months bundles until the end of the generation.



trunkswd on 19 April 2023
Norion said:
trunkswd said:

With how good sales were a year ago for Xbox Series X|S I was thinking it could have done 70M-80M lifetime. With how sales are right now I see it more like 60M-70M. Starfield (And having decent Xbox Series X stock) will be the true test to how much a big AAA game can come for Xbox that isn't Halo, Gears, or Forza.

I thought it had a shot at reaching 70m before but now I think that's not possible unless Starfield impresses and they have a strong 2024 with various notable games like Hellblade 2 hitting the mark combined with the impact of Activision Blizzard games being on Game Pass. September this year till December next year is the last chance for the Xbox Series to end up being more than just a somewhat better Xbox One sales wise. 

It really does come down to Starfield. Sure Elder Scrolls 6 will likely be a bigger seller than Starfield, but that won't launch until close to the end of this generation at the earliest. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Norion on 19 April 2023
SKMBlake said:
trunkswd said:

With how good sales were a year ago for Xbox Series X|S I was thinking it could have done 70M-80M lifetime. With how sales are right now I see it more like 60M-70M. Starfield (And having decent Xbox Series X stock) will be the true test to how much a big AAA game can come for Xbox that isn't Halo, Gears, or Forza.

I really don't see how the Xbox gonna end up selling more than 60 million. It's Xbox One all over again, people are losing faith in the console, so from now on it will probably be huge discounts with Game Pass for 3 months bundles until the end of the generation.

I still think it should reach 60m since its first party library should be stronger than the Xbox One's the 2nd half of this year onwards and if gen 10 consoles don't come out till 2028 that'll give it a few extra million sales.



CosmicSex on 20 April 2023

Somehow my predictions were still too conservative.