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Shtinamin_ said:

This may be speculation but lmk what y'all think.

If the Tik Tok ban passes, what is to stop the US from taking down Temu, X, Youtube, Instagram, Facebook? Especially if the social medias are broadcasting their freedom of speech during an election year.

If the Tik Tok ban passes, what is to stop this "election interference" (thats on of the reasons the House passes it) from happening when an American buys Tik Tok?

Who decides who buys Tik Tok from ByteDance? (How can I buy Tik Tok?)

These were thoughts that I had while this has been going on. Hopefully, these ideas are that, thoughts. But yeah did anyone else think this?

Because they (aside from Temu) are American companies and this bill is about China, why I called it a "ban" is because technically it's not a ban, they want ByteDance to divest, but the odds of them divesting are slim to none so in effect it is a ban, but if we entertain TikTok selling to someone, who would it be? An American company.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 March 2024

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Ryuu96 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

This may be speculation but lmk what y'all think.

If the TikTok ban passes, what is to stop the US from taking down Temu, X, Youtube, Instagram, Facebook? Especially if the social medias are broadcasting their freedom of speech during an election year.

If the TikTok ban passes, what is to stop this "election interference" (thats on of the reasons the House passes it) from happening when an American buys Tik Tok?

Who decides who buys TikTok from ByteDance? (How can I buy TikTok?)

These were thoughts that I had while this has been going on. Hopefully, these ideas are that, thoughts. But yeah did anyone else think this?

Because they (aside from Temu) are American companies and this bill is about China, why I called it a "ban" is because technically it's not a ban, they want ByteDance to divest, but the odds of them divesting are slim to none so in effect it is a ban, but if we entertain TikTok selling to someone, who would it be? An American company.

I agree that they are also doing this due to China speculations, but what happens if a social media is accused of "election interference".

If we entertain ByteDance selling TikTok, I presume that the US would want a US company to own it as well. (Which seems like a social media monopoly, but that can be discussed later).

Would another social media company buy it? Or would any US company be able to buy it?
Doing a very surface-level dive: There are websites that value TikTok in 2023 at around $80B, though I have also seen ~$180B. Elon Musk spent around ~20% of his net worth to buy Twitter. I dont have many other sources of huge social media companies being bought by another, so I assume that a US company won't spend more than 20-25% of their net worth for TikTok (but we can see a higher percentage if they believe they can gain profit?). I'll be using the $80B estimation for simplicity. Here are some US companies that could make the purchase.

Company, Market Cap, % of market cap to buy TikTok

Walmart$493.7B16%
Amazon$1.82T4%
Microsoft$3.09T2.5%
Apple$2.77T2.8%
Alphabet$1.72T4.6%
Meta$1.28T6.3%
Disney$206.36B38%
Netflix$265.28B30%

There aren't too many companies that have more than $200B as a market cap that are US owned.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
Ryuu96 said:

Because they (aside from Temu) are American companies and this bill is about China, why I called it a "ban" is because technically it's not a ban, they want ByteDance to divest, but the odds of them divesting are slim to none so in effect it is a ban, but if we entertain TikTok selling to someone, who would it be? An American company.

I agree that they are also doing this due to China speculations, but what happens if a social media is accused of "election interference".

If we entertain ByteDance selling TikTok, I presume that the US would want a US company to own it as well. (Which seems like a social media monopoly, but that can be discussed later).

Would another social media company buy it? Or would any US company be able to buy it?
Doing a very surface-level dive: There are websites that value TikTok in 2023 at around $80B, though I have also seen ~$180B. Elon Musk spent around ~20% of his net worth to buy Twitter. I dont have many other sources of huge social media companies being bought by another, so I assume that a US company won't spend more than 20-25% of their net worth for TikTok (but we can see a higher percentage if they believe they can gain profit?). I'll be using the $80B estimation for simplicity. Here are some US companies that could make the purchase.

Company, Market Cap, % of market cap to buy TikTok

Walmart $493.7B 16%
Amazon $1.82T 4%
Microsoft $3.09T 2.5%
Apple $2.77T 2.8%
Alphabet $1.72T 4.6%
Meta $1.28T 6.3%
Disney $206.36B 38%
Netflix $265.28B 30%

There aren't too many companies that have more than $200B as a market cap that are US owned.

Capitalism will win in that hypothetical event, United States definitely won't be banning any of their own companies, Lol.

I assume the United States would want a US company or individual to acquire TikTok USA, I also think there's not many out there with the financial ability to do so and most exist in America. I've read that TikTok would be around $100-$200bn in total, I think what you've read may have been that TikTok is valued at around $80bn but acquisitions always come with a premium % on the value of the business, so if TikTok is valued at $80bn (hypothetical) but add on a (random) 40% premium then TikTok would sell for $112bn but I reckon the premium would be higher than 40%.

Microsoft for example has $80bn in pure cash, Alphabet has around $110bn in pure cash, etc. That's still quite a bit off the mark, so even IF ByteDance sells (almost certainly not going to happen) any of the big companies would have to do a combination of their own cash, stocks and maybe large borrowing as well, or it would need to be a joint venture. Horrifyingly, Bobby Kotick is looking into "acquiring" TikTok and trying to get Sam Altman onboard but he'd definitely need other investors and companies to join his venture.

You're probably going to need multiple companies taking a large split.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 March 2024

Ryuu96 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I agree that they are also doing this due to China speculations, but what happens if a social media is accused of "election interference".

If we entertain ByteDance selling TikTok, I presume that the US would want a US company to own it as well. (Which seems like a social media monopoly, but that can be discussed later).

Would another social media company buy it? Or would any US company be able to buy it?
Doing a very surface-level dive: There are websites that value TikTok in 2023 at around $80B, though I have also seen ~$180B. Elon Musk spent around ~20% of his net worth to buy Twitter. I dont have many other sources of huge social media companies being bought by another, so I assume that a US company won't spend more than 20-25% of their net worth for TikTok (but we can see a higher percentage if they believe they can gain profit?). I'll be using the $80B estimation for simplicity. Here are some US companies that could make the purchase.

Company, Market Cap, % of market cap to buy TikTok

Walmart$493.7B16%
Amazon$1.82T4%
Microsoft$3.09T2.5%
Apple$2.77T2.8%
Alphabet$1.72T4.6%
Meta$1.28T6.3%
Disney$206.36B38%
Netflix$265.28B30%

There aren't too many companies that have more than $200B as a market cap that are US owned.

Capitalism will win in that hypothetical event, United States definitely won't be banning any of their own companies, Lol.

I assume the United States would want a US company or individual to acquire TikTok USA, I also think there's not many out there with the financial ability to do so and most exist in America. I've read that TikTok would be around $100-$200bn in total, I think what you've read may have been that TikTok is valued at around $80bn but acquisitions always come with a premium % on the value of the business, so if TikTok is valued at $80bn (hypothetical) but add on a (random) 40% premium then TikTok would sell for $112bn but I reckon the premium would be higher than 40%.

Microsoft for example has $80bn in pure cash, Alphabet has around $110bn in pure cash, etc. That's still quite a bit off the mark, so even IF ByteDance sells (almost certainly not going to happen) any of the big companies would have to do a combination of their own cash, stocks and maybe large borrowing as well, or it would need to be a joint venture. Horrifyingly, Bobby Kotick is looking into "acquiring" TikTok and trying to get Sam Altman onboard but he'd definitely need other investors and companies to join his venture.

You're probably going to need multiple companies taking a large split.

Ok. Hopefully capitalism wins then.

Thanks, I saw $200B as well, but I stuck with $80B because if the US forces ByteDance to sell TikTok its value would drop. But I can see $200B being a possibility as well. Bobby Kotick has $600M as his net worth, and Sam Altman has ~$2B, sounds like they need many people/companies involved. If I was Bobby, I would try and convince Microsoft & Apple to pitch in. Both doesn't have any social media and is a big tech company which is in their field. Sounds like a good business opportunity for the two US companies. Either way, this will be a very interesting event for sure.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

LurkerJ said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Anyone see the Tik Tok ban "bill" (idk what to call it, dismissive order?) getting passed by Congress?
Supposedly, Congress had a unusual and strange amount of people calling them saying that Tik Tok notified and gave them the number to call Congress, after it passed. There's been more told but I found that weird.
Does anyone here use Tik Tok?

-------------

TikTok isn’t some revolutionary force—and NatSec hatred for it is long simmering—but the nonstop images of dead Palestinians is absolutely what sealed its fate.



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LurkerJ said:

So if President Biden is hurting with young voters, why will he sign the TikTok ban bill if/when it arrives on his desk? TikTok has ~170M US citizens on it "daily" (if not monthly) and if that social media become unavailable that would just piss off the young voters even more. I understand that they are mad with his Israel/Hamas/Palestinian situation but don't give them another reason to be pissed at you (banning one of the biggest social media in America, unless sold to an american company which is a huge ask given how much TikTok is worth).

This is my thought personally, with why Trump switched positions, I think that if this ban bill were to pass, what is to stop the government from shutting down Truth Social (his social media), and any other social media that does not agree with the government or follows their agenda?
I understand that we talked about it, and the reasoning was that the government wouldn't do that to an american company (I dont see that reason being enough), but what is stopping the government from shutting down social medias, websites, videos, etc when something is posted that doesn't fit the agenda? 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
LurkerJ said:

So if President Biden is hurting with young voters, why will he sign the TikTok ban bill if/when it arrives on his desk? TikTok has ~170M US citizens on it "daily" (if not monthly) and if that social media become unavailable that would just piss off the young voters even more. I understand that they are mad with his Israel/Hamas/Palestinian situation but don't give them another reason to be pissed at you (banning one of the biggest social media in America, unless sold to an american company which is a huge ask given how much TikTok is worth).

This is my thought personally, with why Trump switched positions, I think that if this ban bill were to pass, what is to stop the government from shutting down Truth Social (his social media), and any other social media that does not agree with the government or follows their agenda?
I understand that we talked about it, and the reasoning was that the government wouldn't do that to an american company (I dont see that reason being enough), but what is stopping the government from shutting down social medias, websites, videos, etc when something is posted that doesn't fit the agenda? 

If you believe the bottom of Israel's genocide barrel is still ways to go, and you don't intend to do anything to stop them from reaching the bottom, then it's easy to see why it's still not too late to take back control of some of the narrative. 

Moreover, you are pointing out that non of this makes sense, but nothing western politicians have done about this issue has had made sense, the left in the UK and the USA have been choosing to commit public electoral suicide for almost half a year now, Labour's only consolation is that the Tories are so bad no one is voting them for them anymore. A TikTok ban that potentially hurts Biden among young voters is just a continuation of that political suicide (or a preemptive measure if you believe the worst is yet to come). 

Also, "follow the money" is a good idea when things don't seem to make sense, on the surface. 

AIPAC Talking Points Revealed

MARCH 14, 2024

Documents show that the powerful lobby is spreading its influence on Capitol Hill by calling for unconditional military aid to Israel and hyping up threats from Iran.

This week, approximately 1,600 foot soldiers from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) congregated inside the garish yet functional Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center, for the PAC’s annual policy conference.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed attendees by videocast, along with Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog. According to an incomplete speaker list, the entire Democratic and Republican leadership in Congress delivered remarks—Sens. Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell and Reps. Hakeem Jeffries and Mike Johnson. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) were both in attendance, among other representatives.

In past years, the conference has been a media spectacle, with a widely disseminated lineup of powerful speakers to showcase AIPAC’s enduring political influence. This year, however, it was locked down, with few social media posts and broadcast speeches, largely because of the threat of disruptions from anti-war protests. The goal of this year’s low-key gathering was to fire up attendees for AIPAC’s 2024 agenda, before sending them off to Capitol Hill to strong-arm Congress on supporting Israel.

The Prospect has obtained documents from the conference that preview the PAC’s lobbying blitz on Capitol Hill this week. The documents reveal AIPAC’s legislative strategy and the talking points it will use to support an unconditional $14 billion military funding package that has thus far been held up, among other policy changes. They also include numerous positions on aspects of the U.S. response to the war that have not previously been made public, from abolishing the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) to opposing recent restrictions imposed by the Biden administration on Israeli settlers. There is no mention of a two-state solution. 

THOUGH THE PRIMARY MOTIVATION FOR THE CONFERENCE was lobbying, the event also informed members about the PAC’s congressional spending plans. AIPAC has pledged to drop over $100 million on campaigns this election cycle to defeat any congressional candidates critical of Israel.

This week, the PAC touted its prowess to members as “dollar for dollar, the largest contributor to candidates in the 2022 midterm elections,” via its super PAC United Democracy Project. One brochure even pulls quotes from critical articles in The Intercept and Slate as testaments to its pre-eminence as an electoral juggernaut.

But the talking points promoted at the conference for its members to use on the Hill tell a different story. They’re exclusively directed at combating rhetoric and policy from Democrats, Squad members, cease-fire advocates, and even President Biden, who has only recently mildly criticized Netanyahu’s handling of the war.

Despite being a longtime donor and supporter of President Biden’s, AIPAC’s talking point also goes on the attack against him for recent remarks that, however tepidly, indicate a shift in tone. Biden has distanced himself from Netanyahu, embracing the language (if not the full meaning) of cease-fire, and more recently indicated a potential red line, should Israel launch a ground invasion of the Gaza border city of Rafah.

AIPAC dedicates an entire section of its file for members to rebuke the president’s comments, under the subhead “Why is President Biden dictating to Israel how to fight this war,” while simultaneously demanding military assistance from his government.

It advises members to say “concerns about the conduct of the war against Hamas are best delivered privately,” and “public statements that show divergence … are unhelpful and could embolden Hamas and Iran.”

you can read more here :https://prospect.org/world/2024-03-14-aipac-talking-points-revealed/

This is not just AIPAC "interfering with our elections", this is them shoving up both hands up so far inside they end up dictating what politicians can and can not say in public. Pathetic, absolutely pathetic. 

Finally, I think Ro Khanna put it best:

"It shows how out of touch Congress is that of all the issues in the country that the only thing we can get done in 3 days is ban TikTok."

Give it time, I am sure we'll learn more about what went behind the scenes soon enough. 



I'll just leave this video from Bernie Sanders here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfVn9vE1HBQ



Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'll just leave this video from Bernie Sanders here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfVn9vE1HBQ

He is spot on, I've always liked Bernie, at least he isn't a total moron on foreign policy like Corbyn is.

If Joe Biden loses, Americans can kiss goodbye having decent affordable healthcare, Trump will fuck with climate change policy which doesn't just affect Americans, it affects the world, America's democracy (Project 2025) can be kissed goodbye and the results of another Trump presidency will have consequences far after Trump dies when he stacks government with similar far right lunatics. The rights of LGBTQ+ and women will be eroded, they're already being eroded by Republicans.

Ukraine's very survival as a country and people relies on America, Trump has straight up told Orban he won't give Ukraine another penny, America's credibility as an ally will vanish which will embolden even more fascist lunatics across the globe, including Russia continuing further invasions in other countries and China growing more confident in taking Taiwan, the stability of Europe and NATO relies on America right now being a decent ally, but Trump straight up encourages Russia to attack America's own allies.

Americans need to realise that their election doesn't only just affect America. It can't be only about re-electing Joe though, Dems need to make sure they kick Republicans out of Senate and House too, the party is a lost cause at this point, they've gone full Trumpism and they need to be dragged back to sanity, any moderate Republicans clinging onto the hope of the old GOP returning anytime soon is living in a fantasy, they've gone all in on the cult of Trump, it's the only way they think they can win now.

I've never been this invested in who wins America's election, when Trump ran the first time around I was admittedly naïve, If I was American I would have voted Dem but I didn't think it would be as bad as it was when Trump won, I was wrong and I'm glad he lost the 2nd time around. This time Trump will come back with a vengeance if he wins. There's too much at stake for both Americans and the world. I know I'm just some British fucker across the ocean but I care about people being treated like crap in America too.

Now it's just something extra that I have to also resort to begging as an ally of America to vote Democrat too, Lol. Trump and his ilk don't give a shit about Europe, they don't give a shit about UK, they have no allies, they're isolationists who only look up to fascist dictators such as Putin and want to model themselves after him, I may be safe in the UK, Russia would never reach us, but it doesn't mean I don't give a damn about watching my European allies live in terror, be threatened and killed.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 17 March 2024

Majority of Canadians Are Hoping For a Biden Win in Upcoming U.S. Election, Poll Finds - The Globe and Mail

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 17 March 2024