Democrats won a senate seat in South Carolina? And might win one in Mississippi?? This is quite a tsunami, if they play their cards well they might actually have a chance of a supermajority in 2028

Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody barely squeaked by in Florida. With a little more support, Angie Nixon and David Jolley might have won.

Marsha Blackburn won with only a plurality, and only two points ahead of Jerri Green. Tennessee was Trump’s biggest popular vote win percentage wise in 2824. It should have been a blowout victory for Blackburn. 

Tennessee was also one of the states that resdistricted. They diluted Memphis, a Democratic stronghold, and were projected to sweep the entire state in the House. The Democrats won the district that includes Nashville and Chattanooga, and are ousting long time representative Scott DesJarlais.

A lot of longtime irritants in California got swept out, like David Valadao.

Republicans are salty because they thought Steve Hilton had a chance. California’s race was called almost immediately after the polls closed.

It may be premature to celebrate Alaska yet. The race has really tightened. Dan S. Sullivan is less than a percentage away from Peltola.

Michigan has been called for Abdul El-Sayed. He ended up winning by 5 percentage points, which is pretty good for Michigan. Haley Stevens's last-minute simping for Florida Mike Rogers apparently didn't help.

Only three senate seats are left- Mississippi, Nebraska, and Alaska. They have stopped counting for the night. in Alaska, Sullivan is now slightly ahead of Peltola, and after all of the Republicans' whining about Dan J. Sullivan, his share of Alaska's RCV is statistically insignificant. Kalshi still has Peltola at 86% odds of winning, but she has dropped slightly.

Nevada has not started reporting results, Nevada is unique among states in that they will accept mail-in ballots as long as they arrive by November 7 at 5pm, and they will allow voters to correct ballots until November 9. So it will be a while before we know the results. Like the rest of the Southwest, Nevada is not electing any senators this year, but they are electing four Representatives and their governor, incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo, faces a tight race to hold onto his office. Kalshi favors his Democratic opponent, Aaron Ford 97%-3%.

Democrats currently hold a 54-46 majority. If they win both Alaska and Mississippi, they'll hold a 56 seat majority. That's eleven seats short of either being able to convict Trump or override the vetoes he will no doubt issue, but if enough Republicans are scared, especially those facing re-election in 2028, that may be something that Democrats can work with.

Musk spent $474m on the midterms, which is the largest amount of spending on an election by a single individual in US history.

While Trump's supporters are crying about "stolen elections" on social media, Trump himself seems to be more realistic about the situation. He has has said he will accept the results of the election, saying that the Democrats did "a good job," though he said that “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter!" on Truth Social.

I lived in Phoenix for 8 years. Arizona going permablue and Texas going purple would pretty much make it almost impossible for a Republican to ever be president again. And I think this just might be the election that convinces Texans that their vote counts. So like Georgia it will be a state that can go blue with proper leadership. 

It's not just Mississippi, look also at nearby Louisiana. While the Republican nominee won, Julia Letlow only did so by a hair at 50.9 to 49.1 percentage points for Democratic contestant Jamie Davis, or about 25k votes.

Yes, a lot of surprises. Democrats really outperformed in the south.
I expected them to keep the seat in Michigan, certainly flip Maine, North Carolina and Texas, probably Ohio, Kansas and Alaska. 6/7 already came true, but they also got Iowa, which I thought less likely, but could be close, South Carolina, which I did not expect at all (and it ended up not even being that close). And now it looks like they could take home Mississippi and were closer in Florida and much closer in Louisiana than anyone had expected.
The “battleground wins” in North Carolina, Texas and Georgia were just flat out knock outs. I mean if you are winning with 10 points in Texas and 18 in the other two, that’s a huge blow.
That being said, it is not that blue everywhere, Alaska senate is a toss-up, I thought that one would go to the democrats, and while I expected Nebraska to stay republican, I would have thought that one would be a lot closer.

Is the world finally healing?

The most interesting part is how massively the polls under-predicted this margin of win. This likely signifies that almost all the silent Trump voters have switched. The loud Trump voters are as noisy and as obnoxious as ever, but the Republican Party is basically dead if they can’t attract any actual moderates anymore.

It definitely seems like Maga is dead, at the very least. Perhaps a more moderate Republican Party will emerge. 2028 looks like a total write-off though.