Whelp, it's officially been one month of the new Trump administration, so how's it going? In a simple phrase, not well:
Newly-elected presidents usually get a kind of honeymoon period following their victory, as press attention inevitably gravitates to the topic of how they won; what issues did the victor notice and play to that the defeated candidate didn't and who did those issues correspond to the interests of? Then the nation has a fresh start at a point when they are likely unhappy. The proverbial honeymoon period is typically defined as the period of time, beginning when the new president takes office, that he (and it's always a he) enjoys a job approval rating above 50%. Typically this period lasts for many months or even in some cases longer, like more than a year. Trump began his presidency averaging above 50% support in the RCP moving average of polls, enjoying about 10% more support than opposition at the outset. That would be the best faring of his political career, but a weaker start than any other president has enjoyed since the dawn of polling on the subject. Still, it amounted to some political capital. ...And in the span of just one month, he's already burned through nearly all of it, currently averaging under 50% support and in net positive territory by just 1.3% and rapidly falling. For perspective, it took Biden until August of his first year in office to achieve the same feat. The honeymoon is coming to an end fast.
It's not just poll data though that tells us this story. You can also just feel the ground shifting beneath your feet. Joe Rogan has been dethroned in the charts by a liberal podcast. Republican members of Congress are getting harassed by hostile crowds at town halls like it's 2017 again (example, example). Often-hilarious Cybertruck hunting videos are racking up millions of views on TikTok, as is an amusing satirical trend amongst the women on the platform called Mar-a-Lago face. A Democrat recently won a special election in a district in rural Iowa that Trump carried by 21 points just a few months ago. Talk of a nationwide purchasing boycott slated for next Friday is speading on social media. You get the picture: after years of it being hip to be square, the culture is shifting back in the other direction. Wokeness is dead, but economic populism and pro-democracy activism definitely are not. Not by a long shot. One doesn't see comparable public mobilization happening on the right these days now that they have the White House...and Congress...and the Supreme Court...and most state governments...and the clerical establishment...and practically all of corporate America clearly on their side, led by the biotech oligarchy that has successfully bought and paid for each and every one of them.
Incidentally, I mean it quite literally when I say that the biotech oligarchy is the power really running things in Washington right now. You may have seen a lot of activity from the White House lately -- a lot royal decrees being signed by our self-proclaimed "king" -- but much like Charles, Trump's actually much more of a figurehead than a supreme ruler. He's spent most of his presidency so far on the golf course, attending the Super Bowl and the Daytona 500, and just generally partying and living it up while his poll numbers sink. Meanwhile, the world's richest person is, by stark contrast, constantly in the White House and all over Washington, placing his cronies in key positions of power over agency after agency systematically, stealing your personal information, and scaling down every government body that could possibly hold his businesses to account for faulty products, unfair practices, or for any other reason, and then some. Notice who is standing over Trump, often interrupting and talking over him without rebuff, when he gets around to signing those royal decrees, and who stands to benefit from so many of them. Notice who's usually there with him for interviews despite being elected by no one and running a fake government department that wasn't created by either Congress or the constitution and yet presides over all the others. Who is the real president of this country: the man who won our last election...or the one who almost singularly bankrolled his whole campaign? We all know the answer.
Elon Musk, incidentally, is distinctly less popular than Donald Trump. A recent CNN poll, for example, finds that just 28% of Americans believe it a good thing that Musk has a prominent role in the Trump administration while nearly twice as many -- 54% -- view his role negatively. Musk is most popular with young, rich white men (the demo that forms the tech sector) and least popular with working class women of color, and especially the older ones. He's extremely unpopular with women in general though really. Being more often possessed of sufficient emotional intelligent to notice the difference between people and machines, there aren't too many female transhumanists out there. (Transhumanism, for those not in the know, is an elitist belief fashionable amongst biotech millionaires that argues people should evolve into cyborgs. Hence Neuralink.)
What does the public like and not about the Musk-Trump wrecking operation? The survey data we have broadly indicates some measure of public approval for the new administration's crackdown on illegal immigration (with qualifications), moves to limit women's sports to biological women, and hiking of tariffs on Chinese goods, but also show broad public opposition to wider tariffs, the DOGE austerity program, much of Trump's shockingly unrealized expansionist foreign policy program (e.g. colonizing Gaza, taking over Canada, and other assorted settler pipe dreams to be presided over by that ostensible pacifist Tulsi Gabbard), and above most all else the White House ruling by decree and agency population replacement instead of primarily by legislation. And no, the public is not open to our president's petitions for a constitutional amendment allowing him to run for a third term. Or his attempts to strip native-born Americans of their constitutionally-guaranteed citizenship by executive order. What the public truly objects to more than anything else though is a complete lack of action on the rising cost of living: the number one issue that decided the last election.
So that is where we are. There is no question in my mind that the ostensibly moribund Democratic Party will retake the House of Representatives in next year's midterm elections. The real question is what happens after that. How does this White House, one with no respect for the constitution, the rule of law, or democratic norms of any kind, respond to what's supposed to be lame duck status?
Last edited by Jaicee - on 22 February 2025