Still the best choice, but after Gaza that's all repeatedly proven lies.

He's between a rock and a hard place. Put his foot down on Israel and he loses half the Jewish support and Christian support. Keep going like this and he loses the other half of the Jewish support, Muslim support and part of the younger generation. Most of those won't vote for Trump either but he still needs them to come out and vote for him :/

Flat out lying doesn't help his case, that only seems to work for Trump...

Best would be to draw Trump out into more of his racist jibber jabber, leaving the Biden detractors no choice but to prevent Trump coming back in power. So I'm all for more debates, let Trump scare the #NeverBiden crowd into having no choice but to vote for Biden. Sick world.

It's the classic dilemma of moderation: you either please everyone or no one and Biden finds himself trapped in the latter situation. I don't see a moral way out for Biden. The fact is that the public writ large isn't following the war closely and more or less just supports Israel on instinct and accordingly leans toward Trump's simplistic, racist position thereon that simply does not value Palestinian life, let alone sovereignty. But the people who are the most doggedly pro-Israel, as in to the point of being aggressively anti-Palestinian, in this country are evangelical Christians more than Jewish people. They have their own twisted theological end-times reasoning for their position.

Actual Jews (at least in this country) are mostly ideological liberals who voted for Biden by an overwhelming margin last time. Losing them is a matter of choice that has little to do with supporting everything Netanyahu's shrinking war cabinet does and authorizes and a lot more to with defending anti-Zionists, the BDS movement, and people morally equating the war to the Holocaust. That crowd should have no political home outside the margins and should not be validated.

But let's be real: Where Biden stands on the issues (especially ones of more secondary consideration to most voters, like the Israel-Gaza war) is practically immaterial in light of what we just saw yesterday. What we saw today from Biden was a scripted act (like the State of the Union Address). Last night was the unscripted version of the Democratic candidate for president. That's Biden's actual normative state. And that's the problem. People can't imagine him effectively managing the country for another four and a half years, which is what the ask is here. That is an endemic problem that's going to keep resurfacing. The only way to get rid of it is to nominate someone else at the convention. And that's what I think should be done. And it seems today that I am far from alone in that sentiment. In fact, such sentiment has now made its way to a New York Times Editorial Board collective call for Biden to drop out of the race, for example.

I marvel when people claim that only Biden can beat Trump and not only because I seriously doubt he can anymore. How about the most popular Democratic governor in the country, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who enjoys a job approval rating of 65 percent in a ruby red state that gave Trump one of his biggest margins of victory? Kentucky perfectly exemplifies the kind of voters the Democrats used to win by landslide margins all the time but conversely struggle with the most of all today (a topic near and dear to my heart). Kentucky is coal country, especially in the east, which includes part of Appalachia. It's a very white, rural, working class state in long-term decline, the root cause of which is the long-term decline of coal and manufacturing jobs, which residents tend to blame on green politics and free trade policies that they associate specifically with the Democratic Party. Before the green politics takeover of the party in the 21st century though, the Democrats used to carry the state easily by running as supporters of labor. Lots of people with opioid problems there these days. Loads of Trump voters too. One of Trump's best states really. Like just generally, Appalachia in particular is the archetypal definition of Trump country. And there's a Democratic governor who's overwhelmingly popular there in 2024. Think about that. I could go into a spiel here about the importance of moderation on energy politics and gun control and of embracing a reasonable dosage of patriotism rather than the opposite to winning over more rural support and how the Democratic Party needs to shift course in that direction or else risk becoming an exclusively bourgeois party that only thinks it cares about working people, but that is a topic for another time (perhaps November 6th), but for our purposes here the important point is that the Democrats have far better options available to them than Biden should they prove willing to dare the brokered convention route (which they probably won't be). And I'm just throwing a name out there into the ether.

Hold on, that's not how it works in Germany.

The AfD had surged to about 22% in polls, but slightly declined since then, so it's hovering around 20% with a bad outlook now. That's because there has been a new party founded this year that combines some left extremism with a lot of right extrimism and has siphoned off a portion of the AfD voters as a result. In order for an AFD chancellor to happen, the party needs 50% of the votes because all democratic parties have ruled out any form of coalition on a nationwide level.

The 28% for Scholz are likely for the question who Germany's next chancellor should be, which is nowhere near as important as the parties' poll numbers. Scholz's SPD hovers around 15% since a long time.

While this means that Scholz's days as chancellor are numbered, the predictable next chancellor will be a conservative from the CDU (christ-democrats) because they lead in the polls with just above 30%. The prefered coalition option of the CDU (the so-called liberal FDP which is actually primarily about taking money from the poor to funnel it to the rich) will be unavailable because the FDP is tanking so hard, so the next best thing in line is the SPD which has shown time and time again that it is a devoted underling of the conservatives. Both together will likely combine for enough seats in the next election, expected to happen in September 2025.

I am not surprised by the debate perfomance at all, but I am not only surprised, but also shocked how the liberal/left mainstream media reacted to the debate (most independent left-wing media has been in panic mode for a long time now).

Surely you were not expecting a fiery perfomance from Biden? surely you were not expecting a bump-free ride for 90 freaking minutes? are you really surprised or just acting surprised? This is how Biden has been whenever he wasn't reading from a teleprompter for a good while now, I am ok if you think he is fine to run again despite of this but I am really struggling to see where this overblown reaction coming from. I don't even necessarily blame Biden for this as much as I blame the DNC.

@RolStoppable; thanks, useful info to have.

He also seemed fine after the debate talking to people, so Idk. If he had something seriously wrong with him, I don't think it would matter whether he had a script or not. The debate was horrible but I've also seen him plenty of times looking normal without a script. He may simply be shit at debating due to his old age combined with a speech impediment, a debate requires quick thinking which he can no longer achieve. Plus he's being gaslit by Trump spitting out dozens of lies a second, it doesn't mean he cannot govern and he's a feeble old man at deaths doors though.

I do not see the Dems coming to a consensus, nominating a candidate and that candidate successfully mounting a huge campaign blitz in under 5 months, I'm sorry, I don't see how it's possible, it's too late. It'll probably take them a while just to agree on a new candidate and one which won't cause the Dems to split. That candidate has to then quickly build a name for themselves on a national scale, show to the public who they are as a person and their policies and likely require a successful political career, plus you remove the incumbent benefit.

Also, I hate NYT...Whether or not you think Biden should be replaced, I think most media in America wants Trump back simply because Trump is better for their bottom line, they've been banging on about Biden's age for years, ignoring a bunch of shit that Trump says and does so they can flood the news about Biden being old, the NYT is especially a shitty rag (based on some of their reporting on Ukraine/Russia war) but it's also the same NYT who give Biden a negative coverage on his age because he won't sit down with them for interviews.

A lot of Biden clips in the past were edited, lacking context, or straight up lying, there was that recent clipped video of Biden talking to a soldier at the D-Day event made to look like he was talking to nobody, the media tripped over themselves to post that one, the same media complains that Biden is too boring compared to Trump. These guys aren't your allies or friends, they want Trump back because Trump is "interesting" "fun" "chaotic" and brings them the explosive shit to write about and generate clicks. They will moan about him attacking them but Trump brings in the $$$ which is what they care most about. Where was the NYT to say that Trump should step down cause he's a felon?

I feel like a lot of America's media glosses over the insane shit that Trump says lately.

I'm still unconvinced a change is the best idea, I still lean towards Biden being the best chance unfortunately, if we were a year from election then it would be better, but I fear a change now will result in a Republican win, it will make the Democrats look like they're in disarray, desperate, scared. Trump's cult isn't changing and will vote for Trump no matter who Dems put forward. It's the independents that need to be convinced but if Biden isn't changing then the risk is they feel that voting is pointless, exactly what the Republicans want. You had the primary, nobody of note stepped forward, Biden polled better than the alternatives, it's over, your nominee is Biden now.

They've been going on about his age for years now, they feel vindicated and are saying "SEE WE WERE RIGHT!" But none of them offer up any solutions, any ideas of who should replace Biden, it's easy to say "CHANGE" without knowing what the change is. It'll be a massive gamble to change at this stage and just make the Dems look like they're in chaos.

This poll made me laugh, I don't actually pay it much attention though.

What I'd say is, Obama's first debate performance was awful, George Bush's first debate performance was a flop and in some polls twice as many viewers thought Kerry was better, Reagan had an awful first debate after concerns about his age. This shit ain't over until it's over, I doubt Trump gained many voters from that debate because he was also shit, he was just less shit than Biden but he looked like a rambling lunatic as per usual, didn't answer questions and spat out a bunch of lies.

I think the damage may be that independent voters won't vote for anyone based on that shitshow or simply vote 3rd party, so now it's time for Democrats to convince them once again to come and vote for Biden because Trump's a disaster in the making, it will require a big PR effort to make Biden look like he can govern irrespective of a shitty debate performance.

Anyway...

If you read what I wrote earlier; I said the reaction is overblown, because even the most average of voters is aware of Biden’s cognitive decline

There was nothing new to see here in my opinion even if I believe agreeing to the debate was a mistake. The debate will not influence the outcome by as much as some believe it will, Biden was going into this election on shaky grounds either way!

There is a chance his stance on Gaza is more dis-enchanting to the young voter than this debate (TikTok is insanely popular among young Americans). 

Biden’s age and stamina have been an ongoing discussion, yes, but the overblown reaction is a complete breakaway from the usual “is he too old?”. Clips from CNN, MSNBC, and others, including Biden’s biggest defenders (morning Joe) discussing replacements is an entire shift in tone. 

As for solutions, I think the dems are 4 years too late asking this question. 

https://youtu.be/j1OLlZ3AcSY?si=p1tzs0EXeAYNtriE

If I was the DNC, I’d watch the video and ask myself “how can we do better next time?” not how we can barely win again in 4 years in the absence of a pandemic. But here we are

I think we'll see Newsom, Whitmer, Shapiro, Warnock, Beshear in 2028.

But I do think almost all of them are too early to replace Biden now (in less than 5 months!) and it'd be throwing a hail mary grenade, which could massively backfire, not only losing the Dems the election but killing a promising political career if they lost to Trump, nobody wants the cloud of being a loser attached to their political career, Lol.

You'd be throwing them into the deep-end with little prep as well.

Also tossing aside Harris wouldn't be a good look even if her polling isn't great, they'd have an instant battle of "Dems in chaos" and "Dems can't even get behind their president" and "Dems are racist for tossing aside Harris" (I'm not saying I agree with any of these but they'd be instant attack angles and even the media will probably spread the "Dems in chaos" one).