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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Has the Xbox Series Already had Their Peak Year?

 

Has the Xbox Series already Peaked?

Yes 50 49.02%
 
No 52 50.98%
 
Total:102
SvennoJ on 19 February 2023
LudicrousSpeed said:

Imagine calling an Arkane game “GamePass filler”. Glad to say I can’t relate to that level of disconnect.

And Horizon is not the same thing as Motorsport, not even close. That’s like saying Gran Turismo is the same as Hot Wheels Racing. It’s also not a “remake”, it’s a sequel that has had years of extra time in the oven. It’s not “more of the same”. 

On topic, of course the peak years are ahead. The software onslaught has not even really begun.

Horizon is indeed not the same thing and has eclipsed Forza in popularity by a lot.

As for this 'controversy', sorry I bought the console early for Forza and Starfield. (Nah not sorry, I hadn't played Forza 7 and Gears 5 yet). But games that move consoles later on are mostly those that appeal to the widest audience. Hence I wonder how much Hogwarts Legacy has improved sales for all consoles, then we can compare.

Forza 8 is more a hardcore racing title, doesn't have the broad appeal. Starfield is a new IP and hopefully hits it out of the park. Yet with any new IP it's a gamble. And releasing it in summer when attention is low, not the best place for new IPs. But if Starfield is really good, it will still move consoles by BF.

Anyway Horizon plus Halo Infinite seem to be much bigger system sellers than Forza and Starfield to me. But I didn't know Series X was still constrained during the holidays as I saw it readily in stock where I live, unlike the ps5. But it must have sold all that was available as Series X was out of stock end Januari and is still not available again (so did Hogwarts Legacy move them or what?) PS5 only has the GoW bundle available atm (standalone sold out, digital edition sold out). And in a surprise twist, Series S is now also sold out (haven't seen that happen in over a year)

So are there new supply issues or did Hogwarts Legacy sell a lot of consoles? Anyway can't have peaked yet if it's still sold out, unless it's a new supply chain issue. I just don't think Starfield will that big of a system seller, I have seen little hype for it so far outside of fan circles.



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derpysquirtle64 on 19 February 2023
SKMBlake said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

If we talk about "peak year", maybe? But we won't know until we get the sales data for 2023. If Xbox Series X/S follows the same pattern as Xbox One did, then most likely it will be on decline this year. Xbox One released in 2013, peaked in 2015. For Xbox Series X/S which released in 2020 it would mean that the peak year would be 2022. That's why in my opinion 2023 is the make or break year for Xbox Series X/S. If they fail to deliver this year, I think the platform will start the decline and every year after 2022 it will sell less and less. At the same time, I personally think that they have a higher chance to sell more consoles this year than they did the last year, because IMO if it wasn't for certain decisions and not having a great year software-wise, I think that Xbox One should have done better in 2016 than it did in 2015.

I think exactly the same. The main issue is the trust build by MS. The great promise of 1st party AAA titles day one on GP on the most powerful and the most affordable consoles during Summer 2020 greatly pushed sales.  And then no Halo (nor big game) at launch, okay-ish 2021, very lackluster 2022, made the whole momentum fade a bit, and we start to hear the same narrative as for the Xbox One in 2015 "this year gonna be big for Xbox, heavy hitters will come anytime soon".

So definitly make or break year.

Well, to be completely fair, Xbox Series X/S sold quite well last year despite the lackluster software lineup. Even was close to making the impossible for Xbox consoles in the last 10 years - selling above 10m mark. Still needs to be seen what happens this year. Microsoft needs to deliver on software for sure, otherwise I find it hard to sell it more than last year. 



 

AJNShelton on 19 February 2023
derpysquirtle64 said:
SKMBlake said:

I think exactly the same. The main issue is the trust build by MS. The great promise of 1st party AAA titles day one on GP on the most powerful and the most affordable consoles during Summer 2020 greatly pushed sales.  And then no Halo (nor big game) at launch, okay-ish 2021, very lackluster 2022, made the whole momentum fade a bit, and we start to hear the same narrative as for the Xbox One in 2015 "this year gonna be big for Xbox, heavy hitters will come anytime soon".

So definitly make or break year.

Well, to be completely fair, Xbox Series X/S sold quite well last year despite the lackluster software lineup. Even was close to making the impossible for Xbox consoles in the last 10 years - selling above 10m mark. Still needs to be seen what happens this year. Microsoft needs to deliver on software for sure, otherwise I find it hard to sell it more than last year. 

Yes, the narrative is "look how well it sold despite the absence of games, imagine now how it would be with actual games releasing on it" but we all know that's not how it works. PS4's best year was in 2018 (Spider-Man, God of War, Red Dead Redemption II - not exclusive but system seller), yet it sold less than 2017.



pikashoe on 19 February 2023
SKMBlake said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

Well, to be completely fair, Xbox Series X/S sold quite well last year despite the lackluster software lineup. Even was close to making the impossible for Xbox consoles in the last 10 years - selling above 10m mark. Still needs to be seen what happens this year. Microsoft needs to deliver on software for sure, otherwise I find it hard to sell it more than last year. 

Yes, the narrative is "look how well it sold despite the absence of games, imagine now how it would be with actual games releasing on it" but we all know that's not how it works. PS4's best year was in 2018 (Spider-Man, God of War, Red Dead Redemption II - not exclusive but system seller), yet it sold less than 2017.

The ps4 was out for over 4 years at that point, 2017 wasn't exactly a small year with few releases either.



Kyuu on 19 February 2023

Last year was a strong year as far as 3rd party content though: Elden Ring, the fastest ever selling CoD, Madden, Fifa, LEGO... and Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon 5 launching very late in 2021 should have led to a stronger 2022. The software decline across the board was mainly the result of older titles gassing out and services becoming more prominent.

The ads on this site are driving me crazy btw.



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Serious_frusting on 19 February 2023

The biggest thing xbox has going for it is low ps5 stock. The better Sony stock PS5s the more it will impact xbox sales. So with this in mind depending on PS5 supply the xbox might have peaked.



Nobody's perfect. I aint nobody!!!

Killzone 2. its not a fps. it a FIRST PERSON WAR SIMULATOR!!!! ..The true PLAYSTATION 3 launch date and market dominations is SEP 1st

AJNShelton on 20 February 2023
Kyuu said:


The ads on this site are driving me crazy btw.

Me too



Kakadu18 on 20 February 2023
SKMBlake said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

Well, to be completely fair, Xbox Series X/S sold quite well last year despite the lackluster software lineup. Even was close to making the impossible for Xbox consoles in the last 10 years - selling above 10m mark. Still needs to be seen what happens this year. Microsoft needs to deliver on software for sure, otherwise I find it hard to sell it more than last year. 

Yes, the narrative is "look how well it sold despite the absence of games, imagine now how it would be with actual games releasing on it" but we all know that's not how it works. PS4's best year was in 2018 (Spider-Man, God of War, Red Dead Redemption II - not exclusive but system seller), yet it sold less than 2017.

2018 was really late into the PS4s life. Consoles don't keep selling more forever. The Switch had a bigger lineup in 2022 than in 2020 and 2021 and yet it sold less. So exclusives don't sell hardware or what? Obviously they do. Hardware sales always get a boost with each new excusive game launch. But the number of people who haven't jumped in yet for one game or the other dimishes over time.

In the case of XBS it's now it's third full year, not it's fifth like 2018 was for the PS4. That comparison is just bad. It didn't have many big exclusives yet. There's still a lot of potential.

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 20 February 2023

Kristof81 on 20 February 2023

Considering that 2023 looks very solid (probably best so far) when it comes to software releases, I'd say ... nope, not yet



AJNShelton on 20 February 2023
Kakadu18 said:
SKMBlake said:

Yes, the narrative is "look how well it sold despite the absence of games, imagine now how it would be with actual games releasing on it" but we all know that's not how it works. PS4's best year was in 2018 (Spider-Man, God of War, Red Dead Redemption II - not exclusive but system seller), yet it sold less than 2017.

2018 was really late into the PS4s life. 

I know, that was not my point.

Kakadu18 said:

The Switch had a bigger lineup in 2022 than in 2020 and 2021 and yet it sold less. So exclusives don't sell hardware or what? 

You could've use 2019 which has a way better line up than 2020 but sold less than 2020. Ans your question shows that you didn't get my point (but you usually do get my point, so I don't understand why is it different now).

Kakadu18 said:

In the case of XBS it's now it's third full year, not it's fifth like 2018 was for the PS4. That comparison is just bad. It didin't have many big exclusives yet. There's still a lot of potential.

You don't need to focus on my example putting into context, my point was: games helps but if the market's natural trends go towards it, the boost won't be that big. And saying "if it sells a lot without games, imagine what would be with games" isn't good math, cause market doesn't necessarily work this way.

I said PS4 2018 vs 2017 cause 2017 was peak year (main topic of this thread), mostly caused by the Slim (thus, price cut) + PS4 Pro boost, so make sense that it peaked that year, that was what the market was looking for at that time.