Ounch, that's a -25% from last year to start 2023 for the Switch.

Considering the difference between Mediacreate and Famitsu’s past tracking and what seems to be the new tracking going forward for Famitsu, that 400k for Series S/X total seems pretty iffy. Especially now since they're tracking PS4's at 3 and 4k per week for the last 2 months all of the sudden. Something has definitely changed with Famitsu tracking.
Even so, that’s one major collapse for Xbox in Japan. The last 14 weeks were a total of 36.6k so roughly 2600k/per week over the last 3+ months. (Including a 5000 yen off sale week)
We’ll see what happens at the end of the month with Persona 3/4 and MH:R but even still will likely not do much. I am not sure if Xbox has any notable exclusives for the Japan market at all this year so this trend is likely to continue.
One thing is for sure, if there ever was a love affair in Japan with Xbox, it looks like that fling is now over.

I'll put my bet in nice and early this year
I think this will be a 3.3 to 3.5 million year for the switch bringing its lifetime to about 31 million total for the year

I think the ps5 will do 2.5 to 2.8 million and outsell the switch more weeks this year then last year

Maybe I'm wrong we will see, I still think 3.4 million for year 6 in Japan is amazing

Last year I hit it perfect, expecting since the beginning of the year that Switch would do roughly 4.8m (4.7-4.9m).

This year I'm gonna say 3.7m for Switch.

I had been thinking 4m but that first two week drop was pretty big compared to last year. And there is no Splat 3 and Pokemon to boost things this year.

This will set Switch up to surpass DS's Japan record of 32.99m in 2024.

PS5 I think will have its stock issues cleared up so it should start hitting around peak annual lifetime numbers this year so I'll say 1.7m-1.8m.

Series X|S outsold the PC-FX that was at 400k.  Next target The OG Xbox.

Did the Virutal Boy outsell the Xbox One in Japan?

According to VGChartz The Virtual boy sold 140k and the Xbox One Sold 120k in Japan.

18mil would mean poor legs. Doesn't look like it.

With digital Splatoon 3 is already far ahead of Splatoon 2.

Last year I predicted 4m and got thoroughly smashed. So I have to be more positive this year.

With already 250k sold and this year being a 53 week year for famitsu (I think), I will go with 3.5m as well.

PS5 should sell around 1.3m. Slightly up YoY.