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Considering the difference between Mediacreate and Famitsu’s past tracking and what seems to be the new tracking going forward for Famitsu, that 400k for Series S/X total seems pretty iffy. Especially now since they're tracking PS4's at 3 and 4k per week for the last 2 months all of the sudden. Something has definitely changed with Famitsu tracking.
Even so, that’s one major collapse for Xbox in Japan. The last 14 weeks were a total of 36.6k so roughly 2600k/per week over the last 3+ months. (Including a 5000 yen off sale week)
We’ll see what happens at the end of the month with Persona 3/4 and MH:R but even still will likely not do much. I am not sure if Xbox has any notable exclusives for the Japan market at all this year so this trend is likely to continue.
One thing is for sure, if there ever was a love affair in Japan with Xbox, it looks like that fling is now over.