Switch down 8 million units, ps5 down 1.5 million units, Xbox series up 800,000 units.

I don't see the switch declining by two thirds and the
The ps5 production has increased from 2.8 million to 6.5 million in 3 months starting in July 2022, so a decrease is not possible.

I would speculate🧐 that the recent 2021 revision may have had a negative impact.

These are not the final numbers for 2022. The December estimates are not yet included. PS5 should be up yoy and Switch should be around 20mil.

The first post in this thread shows the latest estimates, so far only up until December 3rd. 

The OLED model was the by far best selling model in 2022. There was no "negative impact".

Yeah, this. We only have 2022 estimates through December 3. So have 4 weeks of estimates not out yet. 

Indeed.
What happened that the last update was a month ago?

However, it is still odd that the numbers through November 2022 are 1.5 million less for ps5 than last year and 800,000 more for Xbox.

This is because NPD did not say Xbox was selling much better than last year, they said it was against SONY.

I've been dealing with burnout for a while and the holidays are the hardest time of year to do estimates. So decided to take some time off. 

PS5 was down by a decent amount in 2022 compared to 2021. So it's taken time for it to catch back up. By the end of the year it will be up by a decent amount as December looks like it has had good stock. Especially compared to last year. 

It looks like 2022 is selling more than 2021 in just three quarters though.
I would also consider that ps5 itself is lighter.

I feel that we have Xbox Series XS overtracked by about a million (in total, not 2022). PS5 is possibly  undertracked, but the increase in production may have been saved mainly for December and 2023, and this data is about US shipments which Sony may be prioritizing more now vs 2021.

PS5 does seem to have had a strong December (as opposed to a disappointing November outside the US) based on my half-assed research, and I expect that to continue into the entirty of 2023, which could break Sony's previous hardware record.

agree it seems that the ps5 is below sony's forecast. xbox can't say since microsoft doesn't release numbers but I believe it's overestimated by at least 500,000 units

Well, yeah that figure is a transition regarding the weight of imports.
But do we know how long it takes from import to the store shelves? Even if we don't know.
We don't have to assume that the production increase in July was the first time it affected us in December.

According to NPD, the PS5 was #1 in sales from August to November. In other words, it sold more than the Switch.

And God of War was released on November 9.
First party titles are highly profitable.
Can you think of any reason why SONY would save inventory for December?

SONY increased PS5 production to 6.5 million units per quarter during the second quarter of 2022 (July to September).
Production is still continuing at this rate in December.

Even if SONY is prioritizing the US, as long as production numbers are increasing
There is no doubt that global sales numbers have increased from 2021.