Checking the Era Xbox thread:

Just over a month before the big showcase, people should be excited.

Damn, Debby downers surrounding me. This generation got delayed to a good start because of trying world issues, lets not get caught up with all this doom and gloom. It is barely getting going and there will be plenty of games this generation. If it's still shit at the end of the generation, then I'll be concerned.

Yeah, I think we may be getting a bit ahead of ourselves. I know the news hasn't been too positive around Xbox recently but I don't think overall anything has happened that Xbox can't recover easily from. Not like Xbox One with DRM and Always online bad.

Droid always the voice of reason.

We Stan.

Me neither on both.

I tried streaming only once out of curiosity but even then as it was on my on local network and the game was still running out of my own Series X. 

This is one aspect MS could stress during CAT appeal. The CMA has done various polls early on customer habits but this should have been an easy one to do and an official Xcloud MAU could have been easily given to them by MS would they had requested it. So relying on speculation here seems unreasonable since the various ways they could have used to obtain more accurate numbers.

You know me, I always said PlayStation will crush Xbox this gen

But yes, Series can turn things around and sell a good amount and be profitable.

People need to get it out of their mind that not being #1 = Being unsuccessful.

That thread is always fucking whining over everything.

Sometimes I wonder if certain Xbox fans are more upset about the state of something or more upset that they can't use it in their console wars.

Like Spade said, this is a bit of karma for Forspoken to some Xbot Twitter warriors, Lol.

Or Lionhead being shutdown, or Press Play being shutdown, or Scalebound being cancelled, or Phantom Dust being cancelled, or Fable Legends being cancelled, bout on the level of Crackdown 3 being a disaster, but less bad than Halo 5 being a disappointment.

Last Xbox title which was panned this much was Bleeding Edge, three years ago, it's an exception to the rule, a title which was in development way before Xbox even got involved and was likely too late to change anything now. Microsoft deffo should have paid off those Ghostwire and Deathloop contracts though and made those Bethesda's first AAA exclusives to Xbox

For sure. They've been on a bit of a bad streak but nothing that is a cause of concern for the long term. A good showcase followed by Starfield and Forza delivering a great experience will change attitudes. 

Imma write up why Console hardware is still important to Microsoft though, if y'all spot a mistake then point it out.

_____

Lets look at the 3rd party publishers in the industry by revenue & profit on their best years since 2009.

1. Activision Blizzard - Net Income ($2.6bn) & Revenue ($8.8bn).
2. Electronic Arts - Net Income ($3.0bn) & Revenue ($6.9bn).
3. Take Two - Net Income ($589m) & Revenue ($3.5bn).
4. Ubisoft - Net Income ($163m) & Revenue ($2.5bn).

I didn't include Tencent or NetEase because they're more than Gaming companies and it's hard to find their specific Gaming only revenues and profit. Also, it's a bit unfair because they literally control the entire Chinese market, nobody can get into the market without having to partner with a Chinese company so they have a huge advantage. I didn't include Japanese companies because they're smaller than all the Western ones, and Embracer isn't worth listing either.

"Gaming" is doing around $16bn for Microsoft right now on an annual basis in Revenue. PlayStation is doing around $25bn IIRC and Nintendo around $16bn as well but Nintendo's incredible 1st party sales and profitable hardware business counters Xbox's 30% cut in store transactions. There is a reason why Fortnite, GTA, Call of Duty, etc. Are mentioned regularly in Fiscal Reports as growth drivers too.

Consoles making a loss is irrelevant to PlayStation and Xbox because they make it up in the billions from Xbox Live/PlayStation Plus and the 30% store cut. The Windows Store cut is irrelevant to Xbox if we're going to be brutally honest, Xbox is very unlikely to be making any worthwhile money there. So we'd have to weigh up if going 3rd party would replace the losses from the 30% cut of every single transaction made on the storefront and the loss of Xbox Live Gold.

Xbox currently makes $16bn annual and Activision-Blizzard makes around $8bn. Xbox would literally have to become the biggest third party publisher to make it worth their while to go fully 3rd party unless they want to lose billions in revenue and someone will say what about profits but the fact is that Microsoft doesn't report profits on anything aside from the overall business, seeing Xbox's revenue shave off billions would be a dire sight because we'd still not know profits, neither would the shareholders.

Look at Xbox's recent quarter, $3.6bn was "Gaming" overall and "Nearly $1bn" was Subscription Services (Which includes Xbox Live Gold). Hardware was $500m and "Content & Services" which also includes Subscriptions was $3.1bn. So if we round up "Nearly $1bn" then that means $2.1bn in the quarter came from "Content" and what 1st party content did Microsoft release in that quarter? Hi-Fi Rush, Age of Empires II for Xbox and Goldeneye HD. How much did 1st party content contribute to that $2.1bn? Probably a tiny amount on Xbox, we also have 3rd parties on other platforms to account for (Minecraft) and Steam sales.

Would it be an exaggeration to suggest that at least $1bn likely came from 3rd party content on the Xbox store alone?

Annual Gaming is $15.4bn right now. Content & Services is around $12bn of that, 78% of the total in a Fiscal Year where Xbox released Grounded, Pentiment, Hi-Fi Rush, Goldeneye and Age of Empires II HD. How much do we think of that $12bn is Xbox Live Gold and 30% store cuts? Phil says Game Pass is 15% of the "Content and Services revenue" so that would be $1.8bn so far in this Fiscal Year which Game Pass accounted for. The remaining $10.2bn would be Xbox Live Gold and "Content". Taking into account their 1st party in this Fiscal Year has been dire so far, it likely doesn't account for much, a few hundred million? If that? Maybe Minecraft makes up a large chunk? But it's only $30 so I doubt it. Also take into account any 3rd parties on other storefronts (Steam/PlayStation) also take a 30% cut from Xbox.

Lets think of Minecraft...Its best years have been around 20m in sales, it's currently a $30 title. Lets say $30 x 20m which gives us 600m at an maximum, if all of Minecraft's sales happened on the Xbox stores where Xbox would take 100% of the transaction, which we know is nonsense but we don't know the platform breakdown. Even if we say 600m for Minecraft (impossible) and 400m for 1st party (high estimate I would say) that would only give us 1bn which still leaves us with $9.2bn between 3rd parties and Xbox Live Gold.

I think it's safe to say that Microsoft would lose billions if they were to abandon hardware, in revenue and in profits.

Will fully multiplatform make up for that? Well...If they want to remain the same $16bn company then they'd have to make $8bn more than the current biggest 3rd party publisher in the industry, do we genuinely believe that XGS + Zenimax have that much more selling power than annual CoD + Diablo, Overwatch, World of Warcraft, Candy Crush, etc?

I don't...Not yet anyway, Xbox will need to acquire a ton more content...And they just failed at getting Activision-Blizzard.

They'd also have to grow their upcoming new IPs into major hits alongside revitalising some older IPs. They'd definitely need a Mobile developer.

The other option is Game Pass absolutely explodes but they'd need it on Steam, PlayStation and Switch. Even if Xbox killed their Hardware. Nintendo and PlayStation still have no reason to accept Game Pass on their service unless Microsoft gives them a nice split of the revenue/profits, Nintendo and Sony especially, won't want Game Pass taking away 3rd party sales from them, taking away that 30% cut.

• Is Xbox hardware less important? Yes.
• Does that mean it's not important? No.

Game Pass needs Xbox hardware, Microsoft needs the 30% cut and unfortunately also need Xbox Live Gold.

Xbox can't abandon Xbox hardware until they do multiple things.

• Have a large scale mobile presence.
• Massively increase Game Pass PC adoption.
• Find a replacement to Xbox Game Pass.
• Grow some IPs to juggernaut levels and release more regularly.

Thoughts? I think that thread is 🥴

Well they should feel proud, keep their heads up and get to work patching the game. Despite all the negativity it is part of Game Pass catalogue, a 1st party game none the less, and there is and will be people playing and enjoying it.

And for these people it doesn't mean a wank what reviewers think about game's core mechanics or what it's metascore is. But it needs to be polished to a respectable state and they can do it.

The thing is, the games that Arkane does best are not selling.  Something has to give and its either the studio gets better at what they do best or they need to go into a different direction.  The games are not capturing the gaming base even when they review well which is an issue for any studio.  Its not just about forcing studios to make certain types of games, its about getting the studio to make games that consumers want to play.  Its a hard balancing act but as I stated, something will probably happen.  The worse thing they probably did was trying to pull back from what they originally was going for.  That never works as it make the whole game unfocused.  I just wish if they were trying to make a co-op service game they just went full steam ahead instead of making some bastard hybrid that pleases no one.