Brutal.

If his team includes Concept Artists then scenario #2 is looking likely.

Why would you fire an art team manager if you still had plans to internally develop Halo?

I would say MS is going to go the COD route with the MP.  Seperate free to Play model and inclusion of MP back within the main game.

I still believe if MS lands ABK/Bliz, Slipspace will be scraped.

MS is cleaning house so I believe the refocus, new blood is where they are focused because MS still needs to make Halo their crown jewels.  Kill Master Chief or go to another part of the universe maybe even before the covenant.  This will allow for a totally new direction and feel for the game which at this point it needs IMO.

My best guesses here to answer those questions:

1. Halo Infinite will definitely be replaced at some point. If it is scenario 1, with the next mainline game going into early dev right now, I'd guess the next mainline Halo will have it's own MP that replaces Infinite MP. Don't know if the next mainline will stick with Infinite's F2P model or go back to Buy 2 Play, with long term multiplayer content development supported with microtransactions and battlepasses, hopefully they will go back to Buy 2 Play but I can't guarantee that. If it's scenario 2, and 343 is outsourcing Halo singleplayer moving forward, I think Infinite will get the full 10 years of support, with the next Halo F2P MP releasing on the next gen Xbox and PC in 2031, built from the ground up on a new engine/new build of Slipspace for next gen. 

2. Alot depends on rather it is scenario 1 or 2 here. In scenario 1 there is a chance of Halo singleplayer and multiplayer being integrated again as a single buy 2 play product, if it is scenario 2 though and singleplayer is being outsourced, those will definitely be released as standalone singleplayer Halo games rather than as singleplayer DLC for Infinite imo.

3. No chance of any of their 2nd party partners wanting to use Slipspace if we are in scenario 2. It takes alot of time to train on Slipspace, it makes hiring difficult, etc., the 2nd party partners will definitely want to use either their own internal engines or Unreal 5 most likely, whichever they are currently using. I would definitely expect to see 2nd party singleplayer Halo games on Unreal and such if we are in scenario 2. Scenario 1 on the other hand, 343 will likely upgrade Slipspace for the next mainline Halo, hopefully making it easier to use in the process. 

4. I definitely don't think there is any need for 2nd party Halo singleplayer games to be on Slipspace, as long as 343's own MP and Forge remain Slipspace, at least the engine is being used by someone. I can't see 2nd party partners wanting to use it though, and it will be much harder to find quality 2nd party partners capable of AAA development if 343 tries to force Slipspace usage on them. 

5. Slipspace will definitely be either upgraded or replaced internally at 343 for future multiplayer Halo products in either scenario. Rather it will be Slipspace 2.0 or an all-new internal engine, I can't say, but I can't see 343 deciding to switch to Unreal 5 or something.

Seems like right now they're just going to become a larger The Initiative focusing on MP but outsourcing Campaign.

But I wouldn't discount the possibility that they go all the way and dump their Multiplayer team too after outsourcing it to someone else (Certain Affinity).

Becoming strictly a publishing studio with a few key leadership roles along the lines of World's Edge/The Initiative.

Will probably open Prediction League tomorrow, the news kinda put a bummer on me, Lol.

Distracted me from finishing Skywalker Saga as well!

Layoffs at Fandom too, Gamespot and Giantbomb.

Personally I'd still like a studio dedicated to Halo (preferably internal, either a new 343 or another), and have spin-offs licensed out. Halo's future seems a little questionable rn

I think 343 becoming a sort of Lucasfilm Games/World's Edge could be exciting for the IP as a whole but at the same time pretty worrying for Chief's story specifically, it would be too early to tell but my main worry would be that by the time they get back to Chief's story they'll end up rebooting it again, new writers with a different take on Chief and another cool villain dumped (Atriox).

But I do think this may be the right approach in the end, 343 being the creative overseers and taking multiple pitches from studios to work on the Halo IP...Doubling down on their publishing operations, there are so many stories that could be told and so many genres they could do, someone wants to make a Halo RPG? A Flood Survival Horror? ODST 2? Lego Halo? Lol.

Been for years demanding that 343 do more spinoffs in the Halo universe but it always felt like their publishing department was an afterthought and underfunded and while at the same time, their core team honestly kept screwing up. I have concerns about what it means for Chief's story (when he returns, if the story will be another reboot) but I also would have a lot of excitement of the possibilities for spinoffs.

It's felt like for a while that 343 is simply understaffed, too centralised, taking on too much under one roof, etc. And 343 has failed multiple times in different ways, they often excel in one thing but completely drop the ball in the other, aka taking on too much, like Halo 4's good story but bad multiplayer, Halo 5's good multiplayer but bad story, Halo Infinite's good story/good multiplayer but awful content.

Let others take on focused Halo spinoffs, whilst 343 continues to try to turn Infinite MP profitable and then make a decision on how/when to continue Chief's story...I'd need to know what they plan with that, maybe they have strict guidelines on Chief specifically (ideal) or maybe they come back to him themselves after they get the MP (and studio) in a good place again.

So having said all of that, 343 being turned into a publisher of Halo isn't the worst idea...It's actually a pretty exciting one if done smartly...But it comes with concerns that I need answering for specifically Chief's story, do I care more about a bunch of awesome Halo spinoffs or Chief's story? I always want Halo to expand because it has such a rich universe but I also love Chief.

Another thing I wonder is that if 343 becomes a sort of publishing house operation ala World's Edge/Lucasfilm Games, I wonder if Joe Staten can still be involved in certain Halo spinoffs? Maybe at least as a creative consultant? Hmm. It does suck that it had to happen like this though, so many people let go is really awful, talented people as well, wish they could have been put into other Xbox studios.

It feels like a reasonable approach after the many screw ups and an exciting one for Halo as a wider IP outside of Chief's story.

Gonna try to aim for 3 games complete a month (with the exception being 1 during the Starfield month) this year, down to the last 10 cheevs in Hades that’ll be my 3rd this month.

Starfield will take my entire month as well, Lol.