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Forums - Sales - Switch Sales Top 113M, PS4 Tops 117M - Worldwide Hardware Estimates for Sep 11-17

ShadowLink93 said:
Slownenberg said:

I mean that's not including digital-only games. So Switch is a decent amount higher than that number. So it's not anywhere near double.

And Switch is probably in its most prolific software years at this point, while it is well over 100m and is still very much in the prime of its life. Expect those software sales to leap up by hundreds of millions the next couple years. Most likely Switch software sales will surpass PS4 sales. Switch has a couple years left to sell a ton of software, and a couple years after that post-life to sell a bit more.

Interesting, how much software do you think switch will sell each year in 2022 to 2025? I have organised official shipments into calendar years (below). Personally i think 2022 will be around 225 to 230 million and from 2023 software will decline but at what rate i do not know, it could have a strong tail or it could fall off a cliff.

I believe Switch software sales will only decline gradually YoY for the next several years.  While next year is likely to be the last FY with the release of a 10m+ first party seller, third party titles continue to increase in both quantity and quality.  Nintendo will continue to release small and medium titles for the next several years and third party sales will stay high.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
ShadowLink93 said:

Interesting, how much software do you think switch will sell each year in 2022 to 2025? I have organised official shipments into calendar years (below). Personally i think 2022 will be around 225 to 230 million and from 2023 software will decline but at what rate i do not know, it could have a strong tail or it could fall off a cliff.

I believe Switch software sales will only decline gradually YoY for the next several years.  While next year is likely to be the last FY with the release of a 10m+ first party seller, third party titles continue to increase in both quantity and quality.  Nintendo will continue to release small and medium titles for the next several years and third party sales will stay high.

Doubtful. I just don't see a world in wich Nintendo puts its fate in the hand of third party's. Nintendos consoles will live and die by their first party offerings. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I believe Switch software sales will only decline gradually YoY for the next several years.  While next year is likely to be the last FY with the release of a 10m+ first party seller, third party titles continue to increase in both quantity and quality.  Nintendo will continue to release small and medium titles for the next several years and third party sales will stay high.

Doubtful. I just don't see a world in wich Nintendo puts its fate in the hand of third party's. Nintendos consoles will live and die by their first party offerings. 

It's not putting it's fate in the hand of third party's.  The Switch is already wildly successful.  It doesn't need third party games to drive hardware, because hardware is already selling great.  However, now that Switch has a large install base, it's time for third party games to make them a lot of profit.  

That is actually the standard Nintendo model of one of their successful systems.  First party software drives hardware sales during the early years, but then it tapers off and third party sales generate lots of profit in the latter years.



RolStoppable said:
eva01beserk said:

Almost double? Danm. I don't see switch passing that. That's the thing about first and third party support. First party sells hardware but third party makes the money.

It's baffling that there are still people who believe that third party software sales bring in the most money. First party makes way more for Nintendo, meaning a multiplier of around 4 per game compared to what they collect as royalty fee. That's why Nintendo is more profitable than Sony despite lower total revenue from gaming. They can keep selling first party games which have long paid off their development and marketing budgets for their original price or at a mere 33% discount.

For Sony, third party software ranks only third in the profit category. The main source of PS profit is PS+ subscriptions followed by microtransactions. Pretty bad when it isn't games that bring in the most profit for a console manufacturer, because it's quite obvious where such a business model leads: Games as a service in order to drive higher subscription rates and more microtransactions. And that's exactly where Sony is going with at least ten first party GaaS titles set to release within the next three years. Jim Ryan's leadership is just about to begin to take its full shape and have my doubts that PS fans will like it.

Ye his wording is off, but ur also slightly wrong. Third party support is very important because platformers get free money from commission fee. Apple doesn't make games, but their profit from games is huge because mobile games generate tons of money. They get a portion of that without doing anything other than providing service. Sony is similar to Apple, they can earn money without doing much bcuz of the third party games (although there are rumors that Sony pay for exclusivity).

This doesn't mean that Nintendo's approach is bad either, having a solid first party selection that can sell as much as Nintendo does is reassuring and crazy. At one year, 80% of the sales were 1st party. This proves that Nintendo can support themselves, and not rely on others; whereas other platformers such as Sony, Microsoft, Valve, Apple needs that third party support to be maintainable in their gaming division. Imagine Nintendo having that Call of Duty support Sony and Microsoft are fighting over, there's a reason why they're fighting over it. If Nintendo could get as much third party support like Sony and Microsoft, without a doubt they would be at the top.  The only reason why being Nintendo works for Nintendo is bcuz they are kinda special as they can sell their hardware with a profit compared to Sony and Microsoft. That's why they have the highest profit margin and operating profit out of the big 3 in the gaming division. However, this also sacrifices huge third party support bcuz hardware specs can't meet the standard. Having a third party support will never be a bad thing as it's basically free money for platformers, one of the reason why the Wii U failed was bcuz of the lack of third party support. 



Compared to past Nintendo systems, the only ones that sold more software than the Switch are the DS (948.76m) and the Wii (921.85m) but at the rate it's going, Switch will blow passed both of them soon to sell the most software of any Nintendo system ever.



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RolStoppable said:
eva01beserk said:

Almost double? Danm. I don't see switch passing that. That's the thing about first and third party support. First party sells hardware but third party makes the money.

It's baffling that there are still people who believe that third party software sales bring in the most money. First party makes way more for Nintendo, meaning a multiplier of around 4 per game compared to what they collect as royalty fee. That's why Nintendo is more profitable than Sony despite lower total revenue from gaming. They can keep selling first party games which have long paid off their development and marketing budgets for their original price or at a mere 33% discount.

For Sony, third party software ranks only third in the profit category. The main source of PS profit is PS+ subscriptions followed by microtransactions. Pretty bad when it isn't games that bring in the most profit for a console manufacturer, because it's quite obvious where such a business model leads: Games as a service in order to drive higher subscription rates and more microtransactions. And that's exactly where Sony is going with at least ten first party GaaS titles set to release within the next three years. Jim Ryan's leadership is just about to begin to take its full shape and have my doubts that PS fans will like it.

Asidde from what @Shatts already mentioned, its not only that its free money with zero effort is that even if they make full profit from first party, compared to the 30% of a third party, theres just so many more third party games. Sony alone, or nintendo alone will not put out as many games as all third party developers and publishers.

and second you mentioned Microtransactions. Who do you think have the most MTX? its third partys. aside from GT sony barely has games that have MTX as they focus on single player narrative games. so again that comes from third parties. are they aiming for more? sure, but at the moment its still third parties. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
eva01beserk said:

Doubtful. I just don't see a world in wich Nintendo puts its fate in the hand of third party's. Nintendos consoles will live and die by their first party offerings. 

It's not putting it's fate in the hand of third party's.  The Switch is already wildly successful.  It doesn't need third party games to drive hardware, because hardware is already selling great.  However, now that Switch has a large install base, it's time for third party games to make them a lot of profit.  

That is actually the standard Nintendo model of one of their successful systems.  First party software drives hardware sales during the early years, but then it tapers off and third party sales generate lots of profit in the latter years.

No i dont think so. Nintendo software stars to slow down in the end because nintendo tends to do an actual generational cut of software and they just happened to just be moving some games for the new gen. we stopped seeing that with the wii u to switch. in wich they had some crossgen games specially zelda. I think this new switch will still have backwards compatibility, so we wont see a a software drought as they wont hold any for the new console.  



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

RolStoppable said:

And that's exactly where Sony is going with at least ten first party GaaS titles set to release within the next three years. 

Source? Currently Sony first party are mostly single player games that barely have DLCs. The only one sold as GaaS was Gran Turismo.



IcaroRibeiro said:

RolStoppable said:

And that's exactly where Sony is going with at least ten first party GaaS titles set to release within the next three years. 

Source? Currently Sony first party are mostly single player games that barely have DLCs. The only one sold as GaaS was Gran Turismo.

They themselves announced that they plan that.



eva01beserk said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It's not putting it's fate in the hand of third party's.  The Switch is already wildly successful.  It doesn't need third party games to drive hardware, because hardware is already selling great.  However, now that Switch has a large install base, it's time for third party games to make them a lot of profit.  

That is actually the standard Nintendo model of one of their successful systems.  First party software drives hardware sales during the early years, but then it tapers off and third party sales generate lots of profit in the latter years.

No i dont think so. Nintendo software stars to slow down in the end because nintendo tends to do an actual generational cut of software and they just happened to just be moving some games for the new gen. we stopped seeing that with the wii u to switch. in wich they had some crossgen games specially zelda. I think this new switch will still have backwards compatibility, so we wont see a a software drought as they wont hold any for the new console.  

This post appears to be disagreeing with me at first, but at closer inspection it doesn't actually address what I was talking about.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 28 September 2022