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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - All the Next Gen Nintendo SoC likely possibilities published by NVidia

 

Which SoC do you think is likely?

Orin Nano 4GB (512 core GPU) 2 7.14%
 
Orin Nano 8GB (1024 core GPU) 7 25.00%
 
Orin NX 8GB (1024 core Na... 7 25.00%
 
Orin NX 16GB (CPU and RAM... 8 28.57%
 
Jetson AGX Orin 32GB, The... 4 14.29%
 
Total:28
Pemalite said:

nVidia scales these chips upwards and downwards depending on market or segment. Doesn't mean it's customized, just binned differently. (Or die harvested.)

The fact that this is the only chip that contains 8-cores on a single cluster suggests it's not simply product binning. 



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Darc Requiem said:

Do you think the 16GB 128-bit LPDDR5 with 102.4GB/s of bandwidth is a possibility? It's the setup from the lower spec'd Jetson NX 16GB. If they go with 12GB total then the it would have to be on a 96-bit or 192-bit bus. If they go with 12GB, knowing Nintendo, they'd opt for the 96-bit bus. I can't see them going with the wider option. Depending on whether they use the slower or faster speed LPDDR5 already spec'd for Orin, it would leave the system with between 51GB/s to 75.6GB/s of bandwidth.  Memory bandwidth was the biggest Achilles' heel of the Switch. I'm hoping that is addressed on the consoles next iteration.

It doesn't have to be a 96-bit bus in order to have 12GB of RAM. If the RAM is 32bit then you could have 2x4GB and 2x2GB on a 128-bit bus. In addition, a 192-bit bus would allow for reduced clock speeds without sacrificing too much bandwidth. That would also allow for 4x2GB and 2x1GB, which is how I think the Switch will be set up (with the 2x1GB being reserved for OS functions). 

That said, all of this being true in addition to what else has been listed paints Switch 2 out to be much more expensive than I think Nintendo would allow. 



With the hypothetical specs shown in the rumors and leaks, how much do you guys think this upcoming Switch Pro or successor should be while maintaining a decent profit margin at the start? Or do you think Nintendo will take this chance to take a temporary loss at launch for eventual profit later on? They made sure to not sell the Switch at a loss come launch as a reference point.



Kai_Mao said:

With the hypothetical specs shown in the rumors and leaks, how much do you guys think this upcoming Switch Pro or successor should be while maintaining a decent profit margin at the start? Or do you think Nintendo will take this chance to take a temporary loss at launch for eventual profit later on? They made sure to not sell the Switch at a loss come launch as a reference point.

Nintendo will never take a loss. They dint even take a loss with the wiiu while it was destroying Nintendo. 

I don't doubt that if the cost to make is high Nintendo will just price it higher and always make a small profit. They probably won't make anything that will make then go higher than $300.



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eva01beserk said:
Kai_Mao said:

With the hypothetical specs shown in the rumors and leaks, how much do you guys think this upcoming Switch Pro or successor should be while maintaining a decent profit margin at the start? Or do you think Nintendo will take this chance to take a temporary loss at launch for eventual profit later on? They made sure to not sell the Switch at a loss come launch as a reference point.

Nintendo will never take a loss. They dint even take a loss with the wiiu while it was destroying Nintendo. 

I don't doubt that if the cost to make is high Nintendo will just price it higher and always make a small profit. They probably won't make anything that will make then go higher than $300.

Fair. But they initially lost money when the Wii U was floundering and when the 3DS was struggling off the bat. So they technically took a loss, but only temporarily due to both consoles struggling. Once the 3DS took off and the Wii U started having more first party games, they were able to recover some profit. But it wasn’t even close to the profits they gained from the Wii/DS days.



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Doctor_MG said:
Pemalite said:

nVidia scales these chips upwards and downwards depending on market or segment. Doesn't mean it's customized, just binned differently. (Or die harvested.)

The fact that this is the only chip that contains 8-cores on a single cluster suggests it's not simply product binning. 

They could deactivate 1 core and only use 7.

Didn't Sony had 1 core deactivated in the PS3? Apple also had 7 cores for the first M1 Macbook Air and 8 for the later models 



Doctor_MG said:
Pemalite said:

nVidia scales these chips upwards and downwards depending on market or segment. Doesn't mean it's customized, just binned differently. (Or die harvested.)

The fact that this is the only chip that contains 8-cores on a single cluster suggests it's not simply product binning. 

Every chip in existence... Be it Ram, NAND, GPU, CPU or APU is binned.
Binning doesn't mean just deactivating parts of a chip, it can mean a change in voltages and clockrates.

Binning a Tegra chip may mean that you retain all the CPU cores, but loose GPU cores or disable a chunk of the memory controller... This is a balance Nintendo is going to have to chalk up... Because to much CPU grunt will take away from the graphics quality.

Conina said:

They could deactivate 1 core and only use 7.

Didn't Sony had 1 core deactivated in the PS3? Apple also had 7 cores for the first M1 Macbook Air and 8 for the later models 

The Cell had 1 PPE and 6 SPE's.
The 7th SPE was dedicated to the OS/Security... And an 8th SPE was disabled in order to increase yields.



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eva01beserk said:
Kai_Mao said:

With the hypothetical specs shown in the rumors and leaks, how much do you guys think this upcoming Switch Pro or successor should be while maintaining a decent profit margin at the start? Or do you think Nintendo will take this chance to take a temporary loss at launch for eventual profit later on? They made sure to not sell the Switch at a loss come launch as a reference point.

Nintendo will never take a loss. They dint even take a loss with the wiiu while it was destroying Nintendo. 

I don't doubt that if the cost to make is high Nintendo will just price it higher and always make a small profit. They probably won't make anything that will make then go higher than $300.

This is a very common misconception of Nintendo, that they always sell their hardware at a profit. But Nintendo actually sold a few consoles at a loss. First, in terms of raw production price vs sales price (so, not including R&D expenses): Gamecube, 3DS, and Wii U were all sold for less than it cost to produce them.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-20095125.amp
https://www.engadget.com/2012-04-26-nintendo-confirms-that-its-selling-3ds-at-a-loss-expects-that.html
https://www.ign.com/articles/2004/01/15/gamecube-sales-update

And then, factoring operational expenses vs revenue, Gamecube and Wii U were either rarely or never profitable. Nintendo suffered quarterly losses during both Gamecube and Wii U generations, the only times Nintendo has done so since 1962. It is especially telling during the Gamecube generation, because Nintendo had a booming handheld business through the entire Gamecube generation, and a somewhat strong handheld business during the Wii U generation.

https://www.ign.com/articles/2003/11/14/nintendo-reports-loss?amp=1

https://www.theverge.com/2016/7/27/12294482/nintendo-earnings-q1-2016

Last edited by Jumpin - on 27 September 2022

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Pemalite said:
Doctor_MG said:

The fact that this is the only chip that contains 8-cores on a single cluster suggests it's not simply product binning. 

Every chip in existence... Be it Ram, NAND, GPU, CPU or APU is binned.
Binning doesn't mean just deactivating parts of a chip, it can mean a change in voltages and clockrates.

Binning a Tegra chip may mean that you retain all the CPU cores, but loose GPU cores or disable a chunk of the memory controller... This is a balance Nintendo is going to have to chalk up... Because to much CPU grunt will take away from the graphics quality.

You're misinterpreting. There are no Tegra Orin modules with 8-cores per cluster outside of T239. The linux kernel even shows this. T234 (Jetson AGX) has 4 cores a cluster and 2-3 clusters depending on the module. The same is true for the Jetson Orin NX. This is confirmed in all documentation listed from Nvidia. Unless you are suggesting that the T234 is being binned (Which wouldn't make any sense), then this shows that there are customized components in comparison to ALL other Tegra Orin SOC's. Obviously not everything is "customized", but there does appear to be some customization to the chip, most likely for the purposes of shrinking the die. 

Jetson Orin NX: "The CPU cluster is comprised of eight cores of ARM Cortex-A78AE Core processors organized as multiple quad-core clusters."

https://developer.download.nvidia.com/assets/embedded/secure/jetson/orin_nx/docs/Jetson_Orin_NX_DS-10712-001_v0.4.pdf?tRi_PXkIK_FUEZwN-FNh4DU9X3vNGu68giQqC3_ksBUoCLE9NcsSH7svDLWKY__IWZsyG1UqdMGtX68dXX0OTLRI79ln2Wf5BXDphRyja5tXchoGXXC1Vyvr_RYNx_Oez4snUs7EkGf0jL_m1o-1BW-Sbm_uf_UXzYW1ix9InOlRi68VzXJX62InzLDA9A&t=eyJscyI6ImdzZW8iLCJsc2QiOiJodHRwczpcL1wvd3d3Lmdvb2dsZS5jb21cLyJ9

Jetson Orin AGX:

https://www.nvidia.com/content/dam/en-zz/Solutions/gtcf21/jetson-orin/nvidia-jetson-agx-orin-technical-brief.pdf



Conina said:

They could deactivate 1 core and only use 7.

Didn't Sony had 1 core deactivated in the PS3? Apple also had 7 cores for the first M1 Macbook Air and 8 for the later models 

They could disable one core and only use seven, but that wouldn't make much sense unless it was for a different product (or unless T239 is going to be in other products that aren't the Switch 2). It would be more likely that they reserve one core for OS purposes though, like the PS4, Xbox One, PS5, etc.