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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will the PS5 sell worldwide?

 

How many units will the PS5 sell

70 million 3 4.76%
 
80 million 5 7.94%
 
90 million 9 14.29%
 
100 million 23 36.51%
 
110 million 11 17.46%
 
120 million 5 7.94%
 
130 million 4 6.35%
 
140 million 1 1.59%
 
150 million 0 0%
 
160 million and more 2 3.17%
 
Total:63

I think 115 million at the lowest
With 130 million max if the ps5 has the same lifespan as the ps4

Though I think it can do a bit more if the ps5 stays on the market longer to make up for these first 2 years



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I think around 100 Million. I doubt it will go 110 million + with tougher competition from Xbox and Nintendo.



I voted 100 million but my actual guess is around 105 million. This is based on current sales splits between it and Xbox.

I am not anticipating pro refreshes from either manufacturer due to ongoing shortages.



I'm sticking with my prediction of PS5 105-110M, Series 90-95M.



I actually went 80m this time.   (Im very pro sony, I just have a bleak outlook on the future atm)

Im super pesimistic about it at current time.
Inflation, situtation around the world, riseing energy costs ect.... I just dont think it ends up breaking 100m this time.

I want to see a shrink, of the PS5 thats able to cut down prices.
Esp. now that they where forced to "up" the prices of the current models.
Seriously hope their working on a slim.



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deerox said:
Panicradio said:

I thought alot about it, too. My bet is 132m.

I suspect the PS5 to have longer legs in terms of 'quality software' output than PS4 did. I suspect the raw leap in hardware power to be the reason for longer support of critical acclaimed games, SSD-written engines being the motor for that.

I suspect PSVR2 will also have a bigger impact on hardware sales than PSVR1 did.

I really suspect the PS5 being able to climb behind 125m, summitting at +-130m.

How long are you expecting? It must have very long legs to outdo it's predecessor considering that most AAA games are still being released on the PS4 even though the system is nine years old.

Yeah like, almost two years in, what big games are even on the PS5 that aren't on the PS4 and aren't just remakes of 5/10/15 year old games, or ports from one or two generations ago that are getting released for like the third time?

I know stock limitations have hurt PS5, but the exclusive software available just seems very lackluster. I can't even think of a single exclusive PS5 game I've heard of yet that would make someone think "I gotta get that system".

PS5 buyers are probably just PS4 upgraders, but some of those people are going to be choosing XBSeries instead, or Switch or Switch 2 instead. No way I see PS5 selling as much as PS4. And with Microsoft buying up companies, the Playstation brand dying in Japan, and Nintendo just dominating the market, I don't see PS5 finding any breakout success. Of course by this I still mean it'll sell like 100m because it's Playstation and they pretty much have a built-in 100m user base, but yeah don't think it'll get much higher than that.



Slownenberg said:
deerox said:

How long are you expecting? It must have very long legs to outdo it's predecessor considering that most AAA games are still being released on the PS4 even though the system is nine years old.

Yeah like, almost two years in, what big games are even on the PS5 that aren't on the PS4 and aren't just remakes of 5/10/15 year old games, or ports from one or two generations ago that are getting released for like the third time?

I know stock limitations have hurt PS5, but the exclusive software available just seems very lackluster. I can't even think of a single exclusive PS5 game I've heard of yet that would make someone think "I gotta get that system".

PS5 buyers are probably just PS4 upgraders, but some of those people are going to be choosing XBSeries instead, or Switch or Switch 2 instead. No way I see PS5 selling as much as PS4. And with Microsoft buying up companies, the Playstation brand dying in Japan, and Nintendo just dominating the market, I don't see PS5 finding any breakout success. Of course by this I still mean it'll sell like 100m because it's Playstation and they pretty much have a built-in 100m user base, but yeah don't think it'll get much higher than that.

People always don't see Playstation home consoles selling as much as they ultimately do, and many proceed to learn little from it. The fact that PS5 is doing so well without a single major "nextgen only" multiplat (let alone exclusive) is an argument FOR PS5 outselling PS4, not against it. That PS4 continues to be supported only means PS5's lifespan should be even longer. Major supply constraints and engines/tools taking too long to catch up bode well for PS5's future.

Spider-Man 2 and GTA6 are two of the first batch of games that will push unprecedented numbers of Playstation systems, provided supply issues are solved. The only thing that could go wrong is Microsoft paying for timed GTA6 exclusivity and marketing rights. As long as that doesn't happen, PS5 is locked to break several records in the foreseeable future.

I'm curious what is it that would convince you PS5 outselling PS4 is a high possibility. Will 25 million PS5's sold in FY2023 be enough? or do you expect it to fall of a cliff when it's closer to transitioning most PS4 users?

Last edited by Kyuu - 2 days ago

Kyuu said:
Slownenberg said:

Yeah like, almost two years in, what big games are even on the PS5 that aren't on the PS4 and aren't just remakes of 5/10/15 year old games, or ports from one or two generations ago that are getting released for like the third time?

I know stock limitations have hurt PS5, but the exclusive software available just seems very lackluster. I can't even think of a single exclusive PS5 game I've heard of yet that would make someone think "I gotta get that system".

PS5 buyers are probably just PS4 upgraders, but some of those people are going to be choosing XBSeries instead, or Switch or Switch 2 instead. No way I see PS5 selling as much as PS4. And with Microsoft buying up companies, the Playstation brand dying in Japan, and Nintendo just dominating the market, I don't see PS5 finding any breakout success. Of course by this I still mean it'll sell like 100m because it's Playstation and they pretty much have a built-in 100m user base, but yeah don't think it'll get much higher than that.

People always don't see Playstation home consoles selling as much as they ultimately do, and many proceed to learn little from it. The fact that PS5 is doing so well without a single major "nextgen only" multiplat (let alone exclusive) is an argument FOR PS5 outselling PS4, not against it. That PS4 continues to be supported only means PS5's lifespan should be even longer. Major supply constraints and engines/tools taking too long to catch up bode well for PS5's future.

Spider-Man 2 and GTA6 are two of the first batch of games that will push unprecedented numbers of Playstation systems, provided supply issues are solved. The only thing that could go wrong is Microsoft paying for timed GTA6 exclusivity and marketing rights. As long as that doesn't happen, PS5 is locked to break several records in the foreseeable future.

I'm curious what is it that would convince you PS5 outselling PS4 is a high possibility. Will 25 million PS5's sold in FY2023 be enough? or do you expect it to fall of a cliff when it's closer to transitioning most PS4 users?

Yeah, that's why everybody expected PS4 to sell over 130M and everybody who said it wouldn't happen got ridiculed. Oh, wait...

/s

I can agree for the first 2 consoles (both record-setting by a country mile), but PS3 and PS4 both ultimately sold less than many were expecting.

As for why I expect less sales, it's because the Xbox is selling much better than the last generation and both Playstation + Xbox taken together always sold ~175 combined. This is due to both catering to the exact same demographic, so if one rises, the other one has to drop. It's simple math.

GTA6 exclusivity isn't the only thing that could happen. How about Microsoft denying Playstation the next CoD entries for a start? Or any future Bethesda game? Those would hurt the console much more than you seem to understand.

And of course, the console getting tons of hype and selling out now doesn't mean it still does in a year or so. Just look how it went for the Wii.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Kyuu said:

People always don't see Playstation home consoles selling as much as they ultimately do, and many proceed to learn little from it. The fact that PS5 is doing so well without a single major "nextgen only" multiplat (let alone exclusive) is an argument FOR PS5 outselling PS4, not against it. That PS4 continues to be supported only means PS5's lifespan should be even longer. Major supply constraints and engines/tools taking too long to catch up bode well for PS5's future.

Spider-Man 2 and GTA6 are two of the first batch of games that will push unprecedented numbers of Playstation systems, provided supply issues are solved. The only thing that could go wrong is Microsoft paying for timed GTA6 exclusivity and marketing rights. As long as that doesn't happen, PS5 is locked to break several records in the foreseeable future.

I'm curious what is it that would convince you PS5 outselling PS4 is a high possibility. Will 25 million PS5's sold in FY2023 be enough? or do you expect it to fall of a cliff when it's closer to transitioning most PS4 users?

Yeah, that's why everybody expected PS4 to sell over 130M and everybody who said it wouldn't happen got ridiculed. Oh, wait...

/s

I can agree for the first 2 consoles (both record-setting by a country mile), but PS3 and PS4 both ultimately sold less than many were expecting.

As for why I expect less sales, it's because the Xbox is selling much better than the last generation and both Playstation + Xbox taken together always sold ~175 combined. This is due to both catering to the exact same demographic, so if one rises, the other one has to drop. It's simple math.

GTA6 exclusivity isn't the only thing that could happen. How about Microsoft denying Playstation the next CoD entries for a start? Or any future Bethesda game? Those would hurt the console much more than you seem to understand.

And of course, the console getting tons of hype and selling out now doesn't mean it still does in a year or so. Just look how it went for the Wii.

PS3 post launch was expected by a LOT of people to mark the end of Playstation, and virtually no one could see it come as close as it did to the Wii. PS3's comeback is largely considered the greatest in console history. Before launch, it was overestimated because the PS2 had no competition just like the PS1 before it.

PS4 was significantly underestimated as well until like mid 2019, where it was overestimated because not many thought production would end so soon, an artificial cliff assassinated the platform! The last NPD month with abundant supply, iirc PS4 sold an impressive 230k~ in the US (pandemic boost), but the following months dropped because Sony wasn't shipping many of them anymore, to everyone's surprise. Demand wise, PS4 was clearly underestimated. You're kinda cherry picking expectations, PS gets underestimated 99% of the time. I myself predicted 115 million before the launch so I was spot on (if partly by luck! I thought it'll have a longer life but lower peaks, and considered a permanent pridedrop to $200).

We know MS will keep releasing CoD games on Playstation for at the very least 3 years beyond the existing contracts. This should be more than enough for PS5 to establish itself as a dominant platform in my opinion. Bethesda's games won't make that big of an impact, but I'm not denying the possibility of it, I think you misunderstood me. I'm not asking him why he thinks PS5 won't outsell PS4. I'm trying to figure out what's making him think "there is no way it will!!". This is a repeat to the same songs I heard during the early years of PS4 and Switch.

This generation isn't as predictable as some make it out to be. It's premature to predict lifetime sales with extreme certainty, and I'm genuinely curious about what'll make him change his mind. In a comparison against PS4, PS5 has as much going for it as it has going against it... so anyone can be right as long as they don't predict anything under 80 million or over 150 million. His 100 million prediction is fine, but the certainty strikes me as strange, just as it was around the predictions of Switch and all Playstation home consoles for the better part of their lives.

The Wii was destined to have a short life by its design. It was easy to see that it'll age terribly. The low initial price tag also meant there wasn't much room for price drops to extend its life much. Yes, it was overestimated (post launch) by a lot of people, but not me! I knew sooner or later, PS360 would start catching up. Wii's decline was by no means shocking.

Last edited by Kyuu - 2 days ago