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Forums - Sales - How much would the current platforms have sold LTD without shortages?

victor83fernandes on 15 May 2022
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:
zorg1000 said:

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Yeah people are way too low with their PS5 predictions.  This thing would be blazing a new path of sales had it not been for COVID.  Shame really.

The fastest selling consoles of all time like PS2, GBA, Wii, PS4, NSW all fell in the ~20-25 million range in a similar time frame but PS5 would have been able to do 40 million?

Do you guys even do a moment of critical thinking before throwing out random numbers?

Maybe not 40 million but I think that's a lot more realistic than most of these low balls.  This thing had crazy hype and has been immediately selling out for years now.  

It would have destroyed PS4 for sure and was outpacing until supply fell behind ps4 numbers 

Exactly, maybe more realistically 32 million.

25 million is crazy low, the ps5 sold 19 million with no supply and so many people desperate to have one.

First of all because gaming is bigger now than in 2013, second, because the ps5 is backwards compatible when the ps4 wasn't. Third because its the first sony console with almost no loadings, in fact I've never seen a loading in Horizon forbidden west for example. Even when you die, its already ready to go.

Fifth, they actually have an innovative controller with the adaptive triggers, the ps4 controller felt too much like a ps3 controller.



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Robert_Downey_Jr. on 15 May 2022
Doctor_MG said:
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Maybe not 40 million but I think that's a lot more realistic than most of these low balls.  This thing had crazy hype and has been immediately selling out for years now.  

It would have destroyed PS4 for sure and was outpacing until supply fell behind ps4 numbers 

At this point in the PS4's life (lets use March 2015's shipment numbers) it was at 22.3M units. PS5 outpacing PS4 would have been a few percentage points higher, not almost twice as much. That would mean that the PS5 would have to ship like 30M consoles per year. The PS4 shipped 20M at the very height of it's popularity. The idea that PS5 would be anywhere close to 40M at this point is just ridiculous. Even 30M is pushing it. 

Oh yeah it'd definitely be MUCH higher than PS4.  PS4 was coming off ps3 and had no BC.  Sony had all the momentum and no real disadvantage 



I am Iron Man

Doctor_MG on 15 May 2022
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Oh yeah it'd definitely be MUCH higher than PS4.  PS4 was coming off ps3 and had no BC.  Sony had all the momentum and no real disadvantage 

I don't think there is any data to show that BC increases a consoles sales substantially. The GBA, Wii U, and 3DS were BC, but both sold less than their predecessors. The PS Vita had BC for digital titles and sold substantially less than the PSP. The PS3 initially had BC and sold very poorly initially. In fact, the PS3 had PS1 BC for all PS3 units, and still sold less than the PS1 did. 

Then there are consoles, such as the PS4 and the Switch, which are some of the best selling consoles of all time without BC. There simply doesn't seem to be a correlation between BC and sales. 

Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 15 May 2022

zorg1000 on 15 May 2022
Doctor_MG said:
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Oh yeah it'd definitely be MUCH higher than PS4.  PS4 was coming off ps3 and had no BC.  Sony had all the momentum and no real disadvantage 

I don't think there is any data to show that BC increases a consoles sales substantially. The GBA, Wii, and 3DS were BC, but both sold less than their predecessors. The PS Vita had BC for digital titles and sold substantially less than the PSP. The PS3 initially had BC and sold very poorly initially. In fact, the PS3 had PS1 BC for all PS3 units, and still sold less than the PS1 did. 

Then there are consoles, such as the PS4 and the Switch, which are some of the best selling consoles of all time without BC. There simply doesn't seem to be a correlation between BC and sales. 

Yep, it’s a nice feature that can help make a console more appealing but not a system seller in itself.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 15 May 2022
victor83fernandes said:
zorg1000 said:

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Yeah people are way too low with their PS5 predictions.  This thing would be blazing a new path of sales had it not been for COVID.  Shame really.

The fastest selling consoles of all time like PS2, GBA, Wii, PS4, NSW all fell in the ~20-25 million range in a similar time frame but PS5 would have been able to do 40 million?

Do you guys even do a moment of critical thinking before throwing out random numbers?

The ps2 was never as popular, it was different times, gaming is much bigger now, especially with online gaming and all the services. The ps4 was also never as popular, because it could not play ps3 games. The ps5 is way more popular, same reason why the switch is selling, gaming is bigger now compared to the gamecube era.

Its crazy to me that you guys do not think the ps5 would have sold 21 million more consoles in 18 months when so many people are wishing they could find one. I actually know more people willing to buy one now than people who actually have one. From me and friends only 3 of us have it, at least another 10 guys want one as soon as they can, not to mention colleagues I have who switched to PC because they couldn't wait any longer.

Maybe my prediction is a bit high, but minimum would be at 30 million, no questions about that.

PS2 was never as popular? Bro, it’s the best selling console of all time, what are you talking about?

Gaming is much bigger now if you’re referring to the mobile/PC markets, the PS/XB market however has been fairly stagnant for about two decades and arguably declining. The focus is not on growing the market anymore but making more money per user via digital sales, DLC, micro transactions, subscription services, etc.

PS2+XB-182.33 million

PS3+360-173.21 million

PS4+XBO-167.55 million

There is absolutely nothing that suggests PS5+XBS will sell significantly different than the last 3 generations.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 on 15 May 2022
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:
Doctor_MG said:

At this point in the PS4's life (lets use March 2015's shipment numbers) it was at 22.3M units. PS5 outpacing PS4 would have been a few percentage points higher, not almost twice as much. That would mean that the PS5 would have to ship like 30M consoles per year. The PS4 shipped 20M at the very height of it's popularity. The idea that PS5 would be anywhere close to 40M at this point is just ridiculous. Even 30M is pushing it. 

Oh yeah it'd definitely be MUCH higher than PS4.  PS4 was coming off ps3 and had no BC.  Sony had all the momentum and no real disadvantage 

People always talk about previous consoles performance helping/hurting sales but they have almost no affect on how much a new console will sell.

PS2-157m to PS3-87m to PS4-117m

XB-25m to 360-86m to XBO-50m

DS-155m to 3DS-76m

PSP-81m to Vita-16m

GC-22m to Wii-101m to Wii U-14m

A console sells based on its own merits, not on how well a console that released 4-7 years earlier did.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Kakadu18 on 16 May 2022
victor83fernandes said:
zorg1000 said:

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Yeah people are way too low with their PS5 predictions.  This thing would be blazing a new path of sales had it not been for COVID.  Shame really.

The fastest selling consoles of all time like PS2, GBA, Wii, PS4, NSW all fell in the ~20-25 million range in a similar time frame but PS5 would have been able to do 40 million?

Do you guys even do a moment of critical thinking before throwing out random numbers?

The ps2 was never as popular, it was different times, gaming is much bigger now, especially with online gaming and all the services. The ps4 was also never as popular, because it could not play ps3 games. The ps5 is way more popular, same reason why the switch is selling, gaming is bigger now compared to the gamecube era.

Its crazy to me that you guys do not think the ps5 would have sold 21 million more consoles in 18 months when so many people are wishing they could find one. I actually know more people willing to buy one now than people who actually have one. From me and friends only 3 of us have it, at least another 10 guys want one as soon as they can, not to mention colleagues I have who switched to PC because they couldn't wait any longer.

Maybe my prediction is a bit high, but minimum would be at 30 million, no questions about that.

Anecdotal evidence is not an effective way to prove anything. I for example know a lot of people personally who don't care about getting a PS5.

There, I busted your argument! Nobody wants a PS5 because I know a bunch of people who don't want one!

That's what your argumentation sounds like to me. It doesn't prove anything.



Kakadu18 on 16 May 2022
victor83fernandes said:
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Maybe not 40 million but I think that's a lot more realistic than most of these low balls.  This thing had crazy hype and has been immediately selling out for years now.  

It would have destroyed PS4 for sure and was outpacing until supply fell behind ps4 numbers 

Exactly, maybe more realistically 32 million.

25 million is crazy low, the ps5 sold 19 million with no supply and so many people desperate to have one.

First of all because gaming is bigger now than in 2013, second, because the ps5 is backwards compatible when the ps4 wasn't. Third because its the first sony console with almost no loadings, in fact I've never seen a loading in Horizon forbidden west for example. Even when you die, its already ready to go.

Fifth, they actually have an innovative controller with the adaptive triggers, the ps4 controller felt too much like a ps3 controller.

1. The PS/Xbox console market has not substantially grown since 2013.

2. There is no proof that BC increases sales.

3. That is not a big systemselling feature.

Didn't Ratchet and Clank showcase that feature prominently and yet the game vanished from the charts quickly.

You forgot fourth.

5. The controller being innovative is just your opinion. It's new features aren't reason to upgrade on their own.

Games sell hardware.

Do you understand how fomo works?

The lack of stock makes it seem like demand is infinitely higher than it is and/or would have otherwise been.



holzi on 16 May 2022
victor83fernandes said:
Robert_Downey_Jr. said:

Yeah people are way too low with their PS5 predictions.  This thing would be blazing a new path of sales had it not been for COVID.  Shame really.

I think most these comments might be from USA where the ps is not as popular, but here in Europe we have xbox widely available and I've never even seen a ps5 anywhere and friends keep asking me where to buy one from, as Im more into gaming, I was offered good money for mine, and I paid over the price too. As soon as a ps5 hits the second hand market even at higher prices, it goes quick.

I have yet to see a Series X actually in stock in Austria. In Germany it's pretty similar except it currently seems to be in stock at Media Markt. So Xbox is definitely not widely available in Europe. Where are you from where Series X is widely available?



VAMatt on 16 May 2022

Switch would have sold 1-2% more, and PS and XB maybe 7-10% more.  Probably on the higher end for PS, lower end for XB.  

That said, this whole exercise is nonsense. Covid is the underlying cause of the supply chain disruptions that cause the shortages, but it also increased demand. Also, as we all know well, scarcity breeds demand. So, there is no realistic scenario where demand would have been the same but supply higher.

Last edited by VAMatt - on 16 May 2022