The thing is, although Xbox One done surprisingly well in the US,a 5m loss is a lot. And thats a lot of users who would have been brought into the PS echosystem and may not have any reason to leave. When the tides change and favour one system, it takes more than just underdog to do well, it also requires the market leader to do badly. Stock right now is Sonys only major point. The exclusives from Xbox can make a difference but I don't think we'll be seeing the most important ones until generation is already on its tail end. Gamepass could be enough for some people to jump ship entirely but I personally wouldn't take that bet. It'll be a close one anyway 

5 million is pretty small when worldwide the gap was nearly 70 million. In 2022 the Xbox Series X|S has outsold the PS5 by about 460K and the two have sold nearly the same amount. PS5 has sold 7.23M in the US and XS has sold 7.04M

I had forgotten it was a 10m gap last gen when looking at the 5m currently. It def will be a closer match this time than last. Maybe not PS3/360 close but much more competitive than PS4/XBO and even PS2/XB

5 million in a market the size of the US is not very large, that’s a 46:54 sales split between Xbox:PS. If I recall correctly the sales split between the 360 and PS3 was 65:35 in the US or around that. 

I maintain that North American customers are not brand loyal and unlike the rest of the world does not see much of a functional difference between the PlayStation and Xbox brands. They just buy what is cheap and available and then their friends follow

The opposite is also true.  Every time the PS5 has a good week, Sony fans declare that it can't possibly lose to XBox.

Personally I see both PS5 and X|S to have had a soft launch.  Both systems have hardly any exclusives, nor are they really even getting third party games that are Gen 9 exclusive.  XBox has the advantage when exclusives start coming though because of all of its acquisitions.  The fact that XBox has been doing so well against PS5 so far, before major exclusives enter the picture, does not bode well for PS5.

What was this week last year that the Switch was at over 450k?

Golden Week in Japan, plus Monster Hunter Rise was still fresh enough to move some hardware globally.

I know about Golden Week. Last year it boosted hardware much more than this year. But Monster Hunter boosted hardware more than Switch Sports outside of Japan? That's something.

It's not surprising. A game like Switch Sports has a different trajectory, that goes for both its own software sales as well as the effect on hardware sales.

During the DS and Wii era, Nintendo pointed out repeatedly that there's a delay of approximately six to eight weeks before this type of game can be properly judged. These games are heavily reliant on word of mouth to spread the message (despite TV commercials). This is also probably why Nintendo made no mention of initial Switch Sports sales during their financial briefing.

Yeah is the type of game that a friend plays at your house and decides to get it for himself. Then is just a domino effect.