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Forums - General Discussion - When do you think the mankind will finally land on Mars?

 

When will that day come?

2024-2026 0 0%
 
2027-2029 2 5.56%
 
2030 or later 34 94.44%
 
Total:36

They have. Wake up sheeple.



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Leynos said:
snyps said:

If they land there, they’re stuck on it. Right?

Yup. Need to recycle the ship parts into a living habitat. I don't think it's happening anytime soon. A several month journey is just asking a lot with our current techincalogical limits.

If we spend as many resources on space flight as on killing each other it would be entirely feasible. The costs to send a steady stream of supply ships to Mars is astronomical, but it's just allocation of resources in the end. It's not out technological limits, it's our limits to being able to work together as a global society. The industrial production and research capacity of 'Earth' is plenty capable of producing a capable 'star fleet'. Yet right now, and for the next 100 years, there are more pressing problems that need full attention.

For now space flight remains a hobby project, mostly for the super rich. Technology for putting a man on the moon was also directly useful for the military industrial complex. Long distance space flight far less, hence the stagnation since the moon landings. The smart thing to do is to establish a permanent moon base first, yet that doesn't sound as prestigious as putting a man on Mars. So for now it remains an ego project for the super rich.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Not before the 2030's. The problem is not just the rocket to get there,

It is precisely this problem to start with. Using today's rocket designs, any astronaut would pick up about half a deadly dose of radiation. So you get rather sick people on Mars, right from the start.This makes a return flight completely fictious, as any astronauts would be dead once back.

Then on Mars, lacking a magnetic field, the astronauts would have to dig in, really deep (either vertically into the ground or horinzontally if there is a mountain around). Forget Matt Damon growing potatoes, it's just a movie..

So what would be the point of this exercise? You kill astronauts, with absolute certainty, just to yell "First"? What about advanced robotics? That is a far better solution.



SvennoJ said:
Leynos said:

Yup. Need to recycle the ship parts into a living habitat. I don't think it's happening anytime soon. A several month journey is just asking a lot with our current techincalogical limits.

If we spend as many resources on space flight as on killing each other it would be entirely feasible. The costs to send a steady stream of supply ships to Mars is astronomical, but it's just allocation of resources in the end. It's not out technological limits, it's our limits to being able to work together as a global society. The industrial production and research capacity of 'Earth' is plenty capable of producing a capable 'star fleet'. Yet right now, and for the next 100 years, there are more pressing problems that need full attention.

For now space flight remains a hobby project, mostly for the super rich. Technology for putting a man on the moon was also directly useful for the military industrial complex. Long distance space flight far less, hence the stagnation since the moon landings. The smart thing to do is to establish a permanent moon base first, yet that doesn't sound as prestigious as putting a man on Mars. So for now it remains an ego project for the super rich.

3 day journey vs several months. That's the problem. It took 3 days to get to the moon. To get to mars it would be months. Supplying that much air water and food is a problem.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Not before the 2030's. The problem is not just the rocket to get there, it's also due to the astronauts themselves. The rocket will be done in a couple years, but not their crews.

Astronauts will need very specific training for Mars which will be much more extensive than for the Moon because it takes much longer to go there and you have to stay there for much longer before you can actually go back to earth (260 days to stay on the planet on most trajectories before you can go back home to earth). In other words, they need training to be able to live in such a hostile environment for 2 years straight, travel time included.

They will probably also need a constant stream of supplies from earth just to be able to live there, like food, water and oxygen. Starship can transport a lot, but I doubt it can hold enough supplies for an entire crew for such a long time. Which is especially true if they are supposed to build stuff there, something they will have to do or need to be done by robots beforehand to avoid radiation since Mars doesn't have a magnetosphere anymore.

I think a lot of people like you still think of 2030 like way into the future, people keep forgetting 2030 is in less than 8 years time. Nothing will change in 8 years, they can go to mars and come back, maybe, but not land, no way it could be done before 2040. And even if they start planning the mission today, it would take minimum 10 years to put the mission into action.



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Leynos said:
SvennoJ said:

If we spend as many resources on space flight as on killing each other it would be entirely feasible. The costs to send a steady stream of supply ships to Mars is astronomical, but it's just allocation of resources in the end. It's not out technological limits, it's our limits to being able to work together as a global society. The industrial production and research capacity of 'Earth' is plenty capable of producing a capable 'star fleet'. Yet right now, and for the next 100 years, there are more pressing problems that need full attention.

For now space flight remains a hobby project, mostly for the super rich. Technology for putting a man on the moon was also directly useful for the military industrial complex. Long distance space flight far less, hence the stagnation since the moon landings. The smart thing to do is to establish a permanent moon base first, yet that doesn't sound as prestigious as putting a man on Mars. So for now it remains an ego project for the super rich.

3 day journey vs several months. That's the problem. It took 3 days to get to the moon. To get to mars it would be months. Supplying that much air water and food is a problem.

Yes, hence it's more a logistical puzzle instead of a technological one. We can get there, but the steady stream of supply ships needed to support the astronauts on the way and while there cost a lot of money and effort.

Also we should be building the ship to take people to Mars in orbit, not launch it from Earth. So 2030 is definitely out, way too soon to get a safe and capable interplanetary ship together. Then we need to send refuelling ships after it and have some already waiting at Mars. Robots to prepare a landing site and stock it in advance.

We have the tech, just not the will to work together on such a long term project. Billionaire egos might put some one on Mars, probably won't be able to bring them back safely if they even make it that far. For now the ISS seems to be a bastard forgotten project. There are currently 10 people up there, usually 7 crew for the past 22 years. It's not growing, still only one space station, still entirely dependent on supplies from Earth. There are some experiments with growing food (Veggie) but nothing to actually eat yet (The Veggie garden is about the size of a carry-on piece of luggage and typically holds six plants).

Still no plans to create artificial gravity for the ISS. Just some experiments with mice in small scale models. Maybe this will actually get off the ground
https://www.space.com/orbital-assembly-voyager-space-station-artificial-gravity-2025
Starting in 3 years, perhaps. We definitely didn't make 2001, Arthur C. Clarke sadly lived long enough to see space exploration going nowhere fast.



victor83fernandes said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Not before the 2030's. The problem is not just the rocket to get there, it's also due to the astronauts themselves. The rocket will be done in a couple years, but not their crews.

Astronauts will need very specific training for Mars which will be much more extensive than for the Moon because it takes much longer to go there and you have to stay there for much longer before you can actually go back to earth (260 days to stay on the planet on most trajectories before you can go back home to earth). In other words, they need training to be able to live in such a hostile environment for 2 years straight, travel time included.

They will probably also need a constant stream of supplies from earth just to be able to live there, like food, water and oxygen. Starship can transport a lot, but I doubt it can hold enough supplies for an entire crew for such a long time. Which is especially true if they are supposed to build stuff there, something they will have to do or need to be done by robots beforehand to avoid radiation since Mars doesn't have a magnetosphere anymore.

I think a lot of people like you still think of 2030 like way into the future, people keep forgetting 2030 is in less than 8 years time. Nothing will change in 8 years, they can go to mars and come back, maybe, but not land, no way it could be done before 2040. And even if they start planning the mission today, it would take minimum 10 years to put the mission into action.

also replying to @drkohler here.

With 2030's I meant the suicide mission I posted above, meaning a one-way mission with no plans of any return trip. Since these astronauts would know they're doomed from the start, space radiation would thus be considered not something they'd need so much shielding for - they would die from radiation (or anorexia or simply lack of supplies) on the planet some time after landing anyway.

That is of course only if someone would be stupid enough to go and approuve such a ludicrous plan. Otherwise yes, 2030 won't nearly cut it, not even sure if it could happen in our lifetimes without such a mission.



Probably in 2600. But first, we will need to destroy the terraforming beetles first.



2069 will be the goal I suppose.



i'm already here. it's great