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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 16, 2022 - (11th Apr - 17th Apr)

IcaroRibeiro on 29 April 2022
Kakadu18 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

That's a very good point that I've missed. The number of games released are decreasing, and sales are decreasing as well

To say this is not a dark age though, it's overlook the data, Switch is barely recovering the market lost by 3DS and still far from recover tonthe point they were when there was more systems in the market. You may just say you don't care for situation of third parties, but they never presented themselves in worse state than they are currently, at least since PS1 days

You are missing a point of how Playstation absence is detrimental for third parties. Playstation first party is irrelevant in Japan, all customers locked on Playstation ecosystem therefore buy, overwhelmingly, third party games. This alone push Third party sales towards bigger peaks on PlayStation platforms compared to Nintendo's. Switch is the pretty much the second most successful console of all time in Japan and has yet to beat third party sales of only mildly successful consoles likes Vita and PS4

The growth of Switch ecosystem, while increase third party sales, will also reflect on Nintendo's first party output, the growth in userbase is shared because, unlike Sony, Nintendo first party output is truly competitive and just keep getting stronger as result of Switch's success 

An workaround for this is, of course, go multiplat, release on PCs and invest in localization to USA and Europe. If those third parties look for Switch as their only way to recover they following the path to shrink and becoming les relevant. Barely flat sales generation to generation when development costs rises is at best an orange flag, they will need to find other way to increase their revenue which, of course, includes keep supporting Playstation and expecting their recover, or, at least, keep their fandom outside their home market 

Where did you get that from? Last year the Switch had over 11mil third party games sold, which is higher than the peak of the PS4 in terms of third party games sold. It is definitely beating the Vita and PS4 in that regard.

I meant both combined



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The_Liquid_Laser on 29 April 2022
IcaroRibeiro said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Let me clarify.  There is not a real decline on Nintendo systems since Generation 8, but there is a decline on Sony systems.  Third parties didn't really support Switch during launch, but third party sales have been steadily increasing on Switch ever since.  I expect, in a few years, if we compare total third party sales in Japan on 3DS and Switch, the Switch will have noticeably bigger sales.

The decline in third party sales overall is due to Sony not having a viable system in Japan anymore.  Some of these games/franchises that supported Playstation in the past are now transitioning to Switch and still more will likely release on Switch in the near future.  However, there are other franchises like Final Fantasy.  FF16 is not coming to Switch and I don't expect FF17 to come to a Nintendo system either.  This used to be a huge franchise in Japan, but it continues to shrink and shrink.  These types of games that are going to stick to Playstation are going to be recorded as a loss to third party sales in Japan.  Sony doesn't have a viable platform in Japan anymore.  That is where the loss is coming from.  Elden Ring is going to sell 20m copies worldwide at a bare minimum (maybe even 30m+).  How many third party Japanese games sell like this?  It's bigger than any Final Fantasy, and it's a Japanese game.  Shouldn't it be selling even better in Japan than it is?  These sales in Japan are low for a game like Elden Ring, because Sony just doesn't have a viable platform there anymore.  In order for third party sales in Japan to stay high overall, a game like Elden Ring would have to come to a Nintendo system.

"But I agree partially with your point that Sony outright ignoring Japan is the reason behind the overall third party market decline. Just disagree Switch is a path to revive third parties."

We may have to agree to disagree.  But I very much reject the idea that third parties cannot compete with Nintendo on their own system.  The reality is that third party games compete with Nintendo when they are on Playstation.  And so games like Final Fantasy are just not going to sell like they used to because they are on Playstation.  Nintendo isn't trying to compete with third party games.  They are trying to compete with Playstation.  (And they are winning by a landslide.)  Meanwhile, when an actual killer third party game does release on Switch, like Monster Hunter Rise, it sells great.  The main reason that third party games can't compete is that they are on the wrong platform.

Furthermore, the main big franchises that Nintendo gets on their platforms are Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest.  Every time one of these games releases on a Nintendo system, we see a crapload of time invested into these games on Nintendo Directs.  I just don't see how Nintendo is giving these big games the shaft.  If some other big franchises were to release their game on the Switch, I bet Nintendo would give them some good marketing too.

They can compete of course, half of Switch software sales are third parties. It's a very though competition however. Switch has multiple times Playstation userbase and Playstation is a 9 year old platform and we still seeing third parties to debut as high on Playstation as on Switch 

After all most of games we buy are to fill the library, one can get a PS4 to play Monster Hunter World, but they will buy more software eventually, and those games are likely to be other third parties 

In a market where both Sony and Nintendo are competitive this will increase the market share of third party sales, which likely won't happen when only a Nintendo system is popular

I think you expect the third parties sales graphs on Switch to keep increasing until it finally met the sales of PS4, Vita, 3DS, Wii U era, right? You are bonded go be disappointed, they will never recover this market share, because Switch success is a direct product of their own IPs success and will keep being the main driver of Switch software sales. 

But well, this is a prediction. Once Switch enters in the end of its life we will see the iversible damage of having a monopoly, something everybody agrees is a bad thing but is somehow celebrated in famitsu threads

They can compete of course, half of Switch software sales are third parties. It's a very though competition however. Switch has multiple times Playstation userbase and Playstation is a 9 year old platform and we still seeing third parties to debut as high on Playstation as on Switch 

This sort of thing seems to vary from game to game.  On the most recent chart, eBaseball debuted a lot higher on Switch, but there are other franchises where they debut close to the same.  In either case, the Switch game will have better legs though.  I expect the Switch version of eBaseball to have 3 times (or more) of the lifetime sales of the PS4 version.

After all most of games we buy are to fill the library, one can get a PS4 to play Monster Hunter World, but they will buy more software eventually, and those games are likely to be other third parties 

In a market where both Sony and Nintendo are competitive this will increase the market share of third party sales, which likely won't happen when only a Nintendo system is popular

This very same thing happens on Nintendo consoles as on Playstation consoles.  People buy the Nintendo system to play Monster Hunter or a Nintendo first party game.  Then that leads to more third party sales.  In fact, small third party devs are more likely to do well on a Nintendo system than they are on Playstation.  Games like Octopath Traveler or Untitled Goose Game do well on Nintendo platforms, because they are competing based on gameplay and not based on cutting edge graphics.  

The truth about Playstation vs Nintendo is that it is really a battle of smaller budget games vs bigger budget games.  Even Nintendo first party games tend to be smaller budget than the AAA games on Playstation.  The narrative of "third parties can't compete with Nintendo" was started by larger third party companies like EA who have always seen themselves as competing with Nintendo and never plan on supporting Nintendo in a major way.  But the reality is that games who have cutting edge graphics are more suited toward Playstation while games with experimental gameplay are more welcome on a Nintendo system, and this is very much a battle of big budget games vs. smaller budget games.

I think you expect the third parties sales graphs on Switch to keep increasing until it finally met the sales of PS4, Vita, 3DS, Wii U era, right? You are bonded go be disappointed, they will never recover this market share, because Switch success is a direct product of their own IPs success and will keep being the main driver of Switch software sales. 

But well, this is a prediction. Once Switch enters in the end of its life we will see the iversible damage of having a monopoly, something everybody agrees is a bad thing but is somehow celebrated in famitsu threads

I expect Switch third party sales to exceed 3DS + Wii U third party sales.  I do not expect Switch third party sales to exceed PS4+Vita+3DS+Wii U third party sales.  That is because some games are just not represented on Switch.  Persona and Nier are going to decline in Japan.  Why?  Because they aren't on the Switch.  I don't know why they aren't there, but they aren't.  They could port over Nier Automata or Persona 5 (or even Persona 4) and get some easy money.  On top of that, we most likely won't see Persona 6 or the next Nier game on a Nintendo system either.  I do not feel sorry for the publishers behind these games.  If they lose money, then it's their own damn fault.  They just need to put these games on the Switch, and third party sales will go up.

On the other hand I don't expect the Trails series to decline.  Why not?  Because they are porting their games to the Switch.  I also expect any new Trails entries to be on the Switch.  We will probably even get to a point where these games are released on Switch day 1 or maybe even Switch exclusive.  In fact, this is the type of series that is likely to improve its sales.  The Trails games are getting a lot of exposure to a huge install base.  They definitely have a better chance at sales growth than either the Nier or Persona series.

That's what this "decline" comes down to.  Either third party games go to the Switch or they decline.  It really seems like a no-brainer here.  Releasing a game on Switch seems a lot smarter than failing and then blaming Nintendo for their own bad decisions.



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Endymion on 30 April 2022

Mark my words: Switch is going to finally take down the Famicom software sales record in Japan.

Japan:

https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/japan-nintendo-software-and-hardware-sales-data-from-1983-to-present.208/