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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-yandex-bond/russias-yandex-lacks-funds-to-cover-potential-bond-redemption-idUKL5N2V71QF

"Russian internet giant Yandex on Friday warned that a trading suspension on its Nasdaq-listed shares could trigger a redemption right on a convertible bond that it does not have the resources to cover.

Yandex said that a suspension of trading of its Class A shares on Nasdaq of more than five trading days would give holders of those notes the right to require Yandex to redeem them at par plus accrued interest under the terms of its 0.75% convertible notes due in 2025.

“The current principal amount outstanding is $1.25 billion. In the event that such redemption right was triggered, we would be required to issue a notice within five calendar days informing the holders of the notes of their redemption rights,” Yandex said in a statement."

I'm no expert in economy, but to me this sounds like a house of cards starting to crumble. What kind of plans you think Putin had in case this starts happening? Declare Martial Law? Declare Russia as a communist dictatorship and say screw the market? Any thought from someone more familiar to this economy stuff?



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According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russia plans to declare the Ukraine's ousted president, Victor Yanukovych, the country's new leader in the near future. Pretend you're surprised, everyone. I think literally everyone saw this particular development coming. People have been proclaiming that any Russian invasion of Ukraine would yield this exact outcome since 2014 now. That Putin apparently has decided to follow this script precisely is almost cartoonishly pitiful. It's kind of like how Putin totally discredited the predictions of our intelligence services by delaying his invasion of Ukraine by exactly one week to the day from their original expectation. This man is a genius! Very savvy!! He fooled everyone!! ...

I mean...there's just something bafoonishly stupid to this whole "special operation". Like how, similarly, the vast majority of the invading Russian troops apparently started running out of food supplies less than a week in. Everything about this "special operation" is not only immoral and evil, but also predictable and just plain idiotic as well. It's like they didn't plan it out at all even though they did! The Russians are so lazy that they can't even be bothered to escape the American script. This is the dumbest invasion of another country I've yet seen before. Putin has less basic competence than even our leadership does these days. But stupidity and nuclear weapons could be a very dangerous combination!

*sighs* Anyway yeah, nothing says "legitimate government" like an invading foreign army just proclaiming you the nation's new leader in place of the one you elected! I mean maybe if this guy had at least been living in Ukraine within the last eight years or something. If anything, I suspect such a development will serve to further de-legitimize Yanukovych's previous presidency in the eyes of most Ukrainians.



drkohler said:

Remember those 2700 Anti-tank rockets Germany delivers to the Ukraine?
Turns out many/most are useless and should have been destroyed in 2014.
German soldiers are ordered to wear full protective clothes when handling the wooden crates they are stored in due to serious mold.

Do you have a source for this? I feel there may be issue with the crates not necessary the content. WW2 mines are still dangerous today even after 75+ years of being battered by nature. So only 8 years over their supposed lifetime don't seems all that bad.





That's some serious assets loss for Russia. Compared to yesterday that's
+166 troops
+3 planes
+6 helicopter
+34 tanks
+15 artillerie
+39 personnel carriers
+8 MLRS
+30 cars
+7 anti-aircraft

The +7 anti-aircraft is the most impactful IMO, makes me wonder if they are harassing the 40 miles column trying to cripple there air defense capabilities to then do air strikes.

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 04 March 2022

How not to invade a country.
Send 200 000 naive troops brainwashed by propaganda claiming Ukraine is run by a Nazi regime and is not a real country.
We are here this is now Russia, we are liberators.
Thousands of troops have been laughed at and told to go back to Russia.
The tanks and vehicles in convoy look like relics from World War 2.



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KiigelHeart said:
Phoenix20 said:

Diplomacy will not work.
Putin has planned for the economic sanctions.
Only counter here is international military force.

Putin also planned this invasion to be done and dusted in few days. I don't believe for a second he anticipated such strong economic sanctions and global companies cutting their ties to Russia. All their industry and even agriculture will struggle immensely. Remember it's only been a week, way too early to say international military force is the only counter.

I agree diplomacy won't work as long as Putin and his regime is in power. It's obvious he isn't to be trusted at all. I can somewhat understand why Europe and US try to avoid direct involvement with military force, even though it's painful to stand by and watch Ukraine burn. But at the same time, in Putin's mind we're already in war against him. If he takes Ukraine he won't stop there.

Hopefully Russian citizens and military will turn on him. I don't know if people around the world even realize how brainwashed they are by Putin's regime. That's why sanctions are important, things will have to really go south in Russia for people to start asking some serious questions. 

The unfortunate thing is, the Biden administration picks and chooses which things to sanction.  For example, Russia invaded the Ukraine 9 days ago, but the US has still not sanctioned the import of oil from Russia.

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Thursday to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil, saying the shipments could be replaced by boosting output in North America and other places.

The bill would have to pass the Senate and House and be signed by President Joe Biden to become law, but the White House has indicated reluctance to support moves that could increase the price of gasoline at a time when inflation is already high.

"I don't believe this country should be importing anything from Russia," Jon Tester, a Democrat from oil-producing Montana who supports the Manchin-Murkowski bill, told reporters. "It will send even a bigger message that the United States is in this with Ukrainians for the long haul."

"We don't have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy... that would raise prices at the gas pump for the American people," White House spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters on Thursday.

Pressure grows on Biden to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil

You're either all in on standing with the Ukraine as a nation and ally, or you're not.  Saying you support the Ukraine while continuing to buy oil from Russia isn't a good look.  Russia is the 2nd largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia.  You would think that would be the first thing to ban import of in order to cripple a country's war effort.  But nah, let's ban athletes and esports players from competitions first, because that will really hurt Russia's war effort.



Mandalore76 said:
KiigelHeart said:

Putin also planned this invasion to be done and dusted in few days. I don't believe for a second he anticipated such strong economic sanctions and global companies cutting their ties to Russia. All their industry and even agriculture will struggle immensely. Remember it's only been a week, way too early to say international military force is the only counter.

I agree diplomacy won't work as long as Putin and his regime is in power. It's obvious he isn't to be trusted at all. I can somewhat understand why Europe and US try to avoid direct involvement with military force, even though it's painful to stand by and watch Ukraine burn. But at the same time, in Putin's mind we're already in war against him. If he takes Ukraine he won't stop there.

Hopefully Russian citizens and military will turn on him. I don't know if people around the world even realize how brainwashed they are by Putin's regime. That's why sanctions are important, things will have to really go south in Russia for people to start asking some serious questions. 

The unfortunate thing is, the Biden administration picks and chooses which things to sanction.  For example, Russia invaded the Ukraine 9 days ago, but the US has still not sanctioned the import of oil from Russia.

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Thursday to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil, saying the shipments could be replaced by boosting output in North America and other places.

The bill would have to pass the Senate and House and be signed by President Joe Biden to become law, but the White House has indicated reluctance to support moves that could increase the price of gasoline at a time when inflation is already high.

"I don't believe this country should be importing anything from Russia," Jon Tester, a Democrat from oil-producing Montana who supports the Manchin-Murkowski bill, told reporters. "It will send even a bigger message that the United States is in this with Ukrainians for the long haul."

"We don't have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy... that would raise prices at the gas pump for the American people," White House spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters on Thursday.

Pressure grows on Biden to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil

You're either all in on standing with the Ukraine as a nation and ally, or you're not.  Saying you support the Ukraine while continuing to buy oil from Russia isn't a good look.  Russia is the 2nd largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia.  You would think that would be the first thing to ban import of in order to cripple a country's war effort.  But nah, let's ban athletes and esports players from competitions first, because that will really hurt Russia's war effort.

I disagree with this.  The reason is with any punishment you need to leave things on the table and escalate as the issue continue.  Throwing everything all at once only put Putin in a corner without any option but to continue.  You need to give a person a way out or they go into "The hell with it " mode. The first thing is to show that the world is against this war, the next is to continue to add increasing pressure to stop the war and last is to give the crazy person a way out even if it allows them to save face.  Also lets be honest, right now the GOP is questioning everything he does and you then have TV celebrities like Tucker Carlson promoting we do nothing with his huge viewership.  The main issues is that most people have no clue on the big picture.  There is a lot to this story outside of just what is happening in Ukraine but also there is the chance this could spill over into outright world war which is not a course any of us want.  There will be no quick solutions to this event not within the next week, month or probably the next few years.



Mandalore76 said:
KiigelHeart said:

Putin also planned this invasion to be done and dusted in few days. I don't believe for a second he anticipated such strong economic sanctions and global companies cutting their ties to Russia. All their industry and even agriculture will struggle immensely. Remember it's only been a week, way too early to say international military force is the only counter.

I agree diplomacy won't work as long as Putin and his regime is in power. It's obvious he isn't to be trusted at all. I can somewhat understand why Europe and US try to avoid direct involvement with military force, even though it's painful to stand by and watch Ukraine burn. But at the same time, in Putin's mind we're already in war against him. If he takes Ukraine he won't stop there.

Hopefully Russian citizens and military will turn on him. I don't know if people around the world even realize how brainwashed they are by Putin's regime. That's why sanctions are important, things will have to really go south in Russia for people to start asking some serious questions. 

The unfortunate thing is, the Biden administration picks and chooses which things to sanction.  For example, Russia invaded the Ukraine 9 days ago, but the US has still not sanctioned the import of oil from Russia.

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Thursday to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil, saying the shipments could be replaced by boosting output in North America and other places.

The bill would have to pass the Senate and House and be signed by President Joe Biden to become law, but the White House has indicated reluctance to support moves that could increase the price of gasoline at a time when inflation is already high.

"I don't believe this country should be importing anything from Russia," Jon Tester, a Democrat from oil-producing Montana who supports the Manchin-Murkowski bill, told reporters. "It will send even a bigger message that the United States is in this with Ukrainians for the long haul."

"We don't have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy... that would raise prices at the gas pump for the American people," White House spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters on Thursday.

Pressure grows on Biden to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil

You're either all in on standing with the Ukraine as a nation and ally, or you're not.  Saying you support the Ukraine while continuing to buy oil from Russia isn't a good look.  Russia is the 2nd largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia.  You would think that would be the first thing to ban import of in order to cripple a country's war effort.  But nah, let's ban athletes and esports players from competitions first, because that will really hurt Russia's war effort.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Energy_statistics_-_an_overview
This illustrate well the problems with EU & UK issue with banning Russian OIL and gas as it make for the majority of grid energy source. Even if the US is less reliant on Russia, would they ban Oil and gas, it would greatly pressure EU to follow suit and doing so would likely skyrocket electricity and gas price which could even trigger a world recession. This potentially could have the adverse effect of diverting attention from the war in Ukraine which could also reduce support to them.

Understand that Russia being a Nuclear power is not the only reason NATO did not join the war in support of Ukraine. It is only a reason everyone can understand and go along with it. Would Russia not be a nuclear power the EU might still have grown to dependent on them to declare war.

For me here's a better course of action.

The previous chart shows an interesting fact, for the past 20 years, use of oil and natural gas have stabilized and even declined a little meanwhile renewable have rose to meet the increase in demand. The EU and UK should declare war on Russian oil and gas, not by banning it but dramatically increase investment in renewable.
For every $ Russia spend on the war with Ukraine they should spend 10$ to end their dependence on Russian energy.
Only an announcement of such would hinder Russian long term prospect and therefore should further impact Ruble value.

This is possible as it should be less costlier than joining war with Ukraine which they are prevented from in the first place.
Also 3 EU (4 if we include UK) member have bigger GDP than Russia (France, Germany and Italy) so they can and should lead the way.

Last edited by EpicRandy - on 04 March 2022



crissindahouse said:
SvennoJ said:

Did you read what @ironmanDX linked?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-03/inside-the-separatist-republic-that-triggered-the-war-in-ukraine/100871262
People will buy it :/

The story on the ground is quite different

"I have relatives and friends in Ukraine in Kyiv, in Odessa, in Mariupol," Alexandra tells me.

"Of course I feel sad for them and hope they will be safe. But Russia bombs only military facilities, not houses or schools or hospitals as Ukraine did."

None of what has happened has shaken her faith in what she sees as Putin's quest to save the innocent from Nazis.

Here's the danger of only following preferred news sources... The fuckery has been going on for a long time.

I have some Russians at my work here in Germany and even they are like "Putin only attacking military places, Putin only fights against the Nazis, Videos of bombed appartements are fake or from wars in other countries" and so on... If even those believe him everything...

You should tell them if you truly believe they are only going after military places, You will personally buy them a 1 week vacation to any Ukraine city in any rich neighborhood that they choose.