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Forums - Politics - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

U.S. Approves Sale of HAWK Air Defense Systems and Bradley IFVs to Ukraine, Including Maintenance

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/u-s-approves-sale-of-hawk-air-defense-systems-and-bradley-ifvs-to-ukraine-including-maintenance/

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So they will get a complete package including training/maintenance of these short range legacy HAWKs and some Bradleys.



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❗️President Zelensky has submitted a bill to the Rada to secure full independence for NABU and SAPO. The move follows public protests and EU criticism against a controversial law that placed both bodies under the Prosecutor General’s control.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 24 July 2025 at 16:55

President Zelensky’s NABU and SAPO independence bill will be considered by the Rada “well before one month,” according to Speaker Stefanchuk. Although parliament is on recess until the end of August, this signals the bill’s review is expected much sooner.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 24 July 2025 at 16:59

The EU has welcomed President Zelenskyy's new anti-corruption reform plans, announced after his call with Ursula von der Leyen. Brussels acknowledged Ukraine's “new approach” and offered support to ensure that all EU concerns are addressed—crucial for Kyiv's EU accession path.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) 24 July 2025 at 16:46

🇺🇦 Meanwhile, people have gathered again in Kyiv. Parliament should not delay in adopting the anti-corruption law…

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) 24 July 2025 at 18:38


Ukrainian combat drone operators managed to detect and destroy an expensive and rare Russian electronic warfare system COP-2

https://ua-stena.info/en/ukrainian-drones-destroyed-a-rare-russian-electronic-warfare-system/



‘Commanders Saw Us as Expendable’: A Russian Soldier’s View of the War
Mikhail Simdyankin wasn’t prepared for the reality of Moscow’s brutal war machine in Ukraine when he enlisted, lured by propaganda and a big sign-on bonus


https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-soldiers-view-ukraine-war-749a0494




Either interesting or scary times.
Under Xi Jinping, the nuclear stockpile remained relatively stable at around 300 until 2023. They have since then doubled it to an estimated 600, and Western intelligence has no idea why.

I'm posing it here, because Russia's coffers are emptying and the country could crumble in the foreseeable future. China is also reportedly increasing espionage in Russia. If Russia collapses, China could gobble up the territory with a nuclear deterrence against the West, and there wouldn't be much we could do. But, my guess is China would wish to stay amicable with trade partners if this is the case. How could they do that? Marketing it as a way to quickly stabilize an incredibly dangerous situation - imagine all these Russian breakaway republics with nukes, but (unlike the collapse of the USSR) in huge disarray.

Of course, this is just speculation on my part for a time that could be as much as 15 years away, and circumstances may change.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Jumpin said:

Either interesting or scary times.
Under Xi Jinping, the nuclear stockpile remained relatively stable at around 300 until 2023. They have since then doubled it to an estimated 600, and Western intelligence has no idea why.

I'm posing it here, because Russia's coffers are emptying and the country could crumble in the foreseeable future. China is also reportedly increasing espionage in Russia. If Russia collapses, China could gobble up the territory with a nuclear deterrence against the West, and there wouldn't be much we could do. But, my guess is China would wish to stay amicable with trade partners if this is the case. How could they do that? Marketing it as a way to quickly stabilize an incredibly dangerous situation - imagine all these Russian breakaway republics with nukes, but (unlike the collapse of the USSR) in huge disarray.

Of course, this is just speculation on my part for a time that could be as much as 15 years away, and circumstances may change.

China could potentially make a case for some territory that China had ceded to Russia in the 19th century. As for which territory, this video quickly explains everything:

I mean, even Mao Zedong tried to get those lands back (it's one of the reasons for the Sino-Soviet split), this could be a golden opportunity for Xi Jinping to actually get them back for China.



Jumpin said:

Either interesting or scary times.
Under Xi Jinping, the nuclear stockpile remained relatively stable at around 300 until 2023. They have since then doubled it to an estimated 600, and Western intelligence has no idea why.

I'm posing it here, because Russia's coffers are emptying and the country could crumble in the foreseeable future. China is also reportedly increasing espionage in Russia. If Russia collapses, China could gobble up the territory with a nuclear deterrence against the West, and there wouldn't be much we could do. But, my guess is China would wish to stay amicable with trade partners if this is the case. How could they do that? Marketing it as a way to quickly stabilize an incredibly dangerous situation - imagine all these Russian breakaway republics with nukes, but (unlike the collapse of the USSR) in huge disarray.

Of course, this is just speculation on my part for a time that could be as much as 15 years away, and circumstances may change.

Hasn't China been rapidly strengthening its armed forces in the recent years in other ways as well? As far as I can see, this is well in line with that. I think it has more to do with what goes on beyond the sea, in the near vicinity of China. It's mostly Taiwan, but China has some disputes with other countries as well. I'm sure China wouldn't be against taking advantage of weaknesses in Russia either, and China probably also sees India as an emerging power, so gotta have power to counter it. Having power also makes it easier to project it, which I have a hunch Xi isn't necessarily opposed to. There's just the problem of the West, mainly the US. Why now? I think Xi feels like China is in a position where it's strong enough economically (and politically?) to invest in its military now, so it can actually use it in the future if they think it makes sense, Taiwan being the most notable candidate for a major conflict (honestly, I don't see a world where China doesn't try to take Taiwan as soon as they're confident enough they can take it, at least as long as Xi remains in power).



Zkuq said:
Jumpin said:

Either interesting or scary times.
Under Xi Jinping, the nuclear stockpile remained relatively stable at around 300 until 2023. They have since then doubled it to an estimated 600, and Western intelligence has no idea why.

I'm posing it here, because Russia's coffers are emptying and the country could crumble in the foreseeable future. China is also reportedly increasing espionage in Russia. If Russia collapses, China could gobble up the territory with a nuclear deterrence against the West, and there wouldn't be much we could do. But, my guess is China would wish to stay amicable with trade partners if this is the case. How could they do that? Marketing it as a way to quickly stabilize an incredibly dangerous situation - imagine all these Russian breakaway republics with nukes, but (unlike the collapse of the USSR) in huge disarray.

Of course, this is just speculation on my part for a time that could be as much as 15 years away, and circumstances may change.

Hasn't China been rapidly strengthening its armed forces in the recent years in other ways as well? As far as I can see, this is well in line with that. I think it has more to do with what goes on beyond the sea, in the near vicinity of China. It's mostly Taiwan, but China has some disputes with other countries as well. I'm sure China wouldn't be against taking advantage of weaknesses in Russia either, and China probably also sees India as an emerging power, so gotta have power to counter it. Having power also makes it easier to project it, which I have a hunch Xi isn't necessarily opposed to. There's just the problem of the West, mainly the US. Why now? I think Xi feels like China is in a position where it's strong enough economically (and politically?) to invest in its military now, so it can actually use it in the future if they think it makes sense, Taiwan being the most notable candidate for a major conflict (honestly, I don't see a world where China doesn't try to take Taiwan as soon as they're confident enough they can take it, at least as long as Xi remains in power).

China wants Taiwan eventually but first they may try to get siberia back from Russia, since Russia took that from China if i'm not mistaken.  China is just supplying drones and meanwhile Russia is growing weaker and weaker.  If China can get siberia back, they'll be the world's largest country.  Taiwan is probably more of a goal that they could try for at least 5 years from now imho



shavenferret said:
Zkuq said:

Hasn't China been rapidly strengthening its armed forces in the recent years in other ways as well? As far as I can see, this is well in line with that. I think it has more to do with what goes on beyond the sea, in the near vicinity of China. It's mostly Taiwan, but China has some disputes with other countries as well. I'm sure China wouldn't be against taking advantage of weaknesses in Russia either, and China probably also sees India as an emerging power, so gotta have power to counter it. Having power also makes it easier to project it, which I have a hunch Xi isn't necessarily opposed to. There's just the problem of the West, mainly the US. Why now? I think Xi feels like China is in a position where it's strong enough economically (and politically?) to invest in its military now, so it can actually use it in the future if they think it makes sense, Taiwan being the most notable candidate for a major conflict (honestly, I don't see a world where China doesn't try to take Taiwan as soon as they're confident enough they can take it, at least as long as Xi remains in power).

China wants Taiwan eventually but first they may try to get siberia back from Russia, since Russia took that from China if i'm not mistaken.  China is just supplying drones and meanwhile Russia is growing weaker and weaker.  If China can get siberia back, they'll be the world's largest country.  Taiwan is probably more of a goal that they could try for at least 5 years from now imho

I don't think China is going to get anything from Russia unless a particularly good opportunity comes up. In particular, I don't think China is going to act against Russia as long as the war in Ukraine is going on, as China probably wants the West to suffer a strategic defeat in Ukraine, not Russia. They'd probably be happy with a less conclusive result as well, but at the very least I don't think China is going to cause Russia a major defeat during the war in Ukraine. Also, I really doubt China cares about being the largest country in the world. Also, we're talking about two nuclear powers, so all the more reason for opportunism instead of just going for it.

Taiwan, on the other hand, is a long-term goal of China, and in my opinion it's only a matter of time before they act on it, as they've been very consistent about Taiwan. All those military exercises around Taiwan? Probably exactly how the conflict is going to start, and no one's gonna know before it's already started, because we can't easily distinguish between military exercises and a proper invasion. I don't think China is going to do anything there quite yet, but if they're feeling confident, they definitely could, and I don't think it's easy to reliably assess when they're confident enough. Even China seems to think patience is a virtue though, so I doubt they're gonna do anything rash.