Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[shavenferret]

Zkuq said:

Jumpin said:

Either interesting or scary times.
Under Xi Jinping, the nuclear stockpile remained relatively stable at around 300 until 2023. They have since then doubled it to an estimated 600, and Western intelligence has no idea why.

I'm posing it here, because Russia's coffers are emptying and the country could crumble in the foreseeable future. China is also reportedly increasing espionage in Russia. If Russia collapses, China could gobble up the territory with a nuclear deterrence against the West, and there wouldn't be much we could do. But, my guess is China would wish to stay amicable with trade partners if this is the case. How could they do that? Marketing it as a way to quickly stabilize an incredibly dangerous situation - imagine all these Russian breakaway republics with nukes, but (unlike the collapse of the USSR) in huge disarray.

Of course, this is just speculation on my part for a time that could be as much as 15 years away, and circumstances may change.

Hasn't China been rapidly strengthening its armed forces in the recent years in other ways as well? As far as I can see, this is well in line with that. I think it has more to do with what goes on beyond the sea, in the near vicinity of China. It's mostly Taiwan, but China has some disputes with other countries as well. I'm sure China wouldn't be against taking advantage of weaknesses in Russia either, and China probably also sees India as an emerging power, so gotta have power to counter it. Having power also makes it easier to project it, which I have a hunch Xi isn't necessarily opposed to. There's just the problem of the West, mainly the US. Why now? I think Xi feels like China is in a position where it's strong enough economically (and politically?) to invest in its military now, so it can actually use it in the future if they think it makes sense, Taiwan being the most notable candidate for a major conflict (honestly, I don't see a world where China doesn't try to take Taiwan as soon as they're confident enough they can take it, at least as long as Xi remains in power).

China wants Taiwan eventually but first they may try to get siberia back from Russia, since Russia took that from China if i'm not mistaken.  China is just supplying drones and meanwhile Russia is growing weaker and weaker.  If China can get siberia back, they'll be the world's largest country.  Taiwan is probably more of a goal that they could try for at least 5 years from now imho