Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Zkuq]

shavenferret said:

Zkuq said:

Hasn't China been rapidly strengthening its armed forces in the recent years in other ways as well? As far as I can see, this is well in line with that. I think it has more to do with what goes on beyond the sea, in the near vicinity of China. It's mostly Taiwan, but China has some disputes with other countries as well. I'm sure China wouldn't be against taking advantage of weaknesses in Russia either, and China probably also sees India as an emerging power, so gotta have power to counter it. Having power also makes it easier to project it, which I have a hunch Xi isn't necessarily opposed to. There's just the problem of the West, mainly the US. Why now? I think Xi feels like China is in a position where it's strong enough economically (and politically?) to invest in its military now, so it can actually use it in the future if they think it makes sense, Taiwan being the most notable candidate for a major conflict (honestly, I don't see a world where China doesn't try to take Taiwan as soon as they're confident enough they can take it, at least as long as Xi remains in power).

China wants Taiwan eventually but first they may try to get siberia back from Russia, since Russia took that from China if i'm not mistaken.  China is just supplying drones and meanwhile Russia is growing weaker and weaker.  If China can get siberia back, they'll be the world's largest country.  Taiwan is probably more of a goal that they could try for at least 5 years from now imho

I don't think China is going to get anything from Russia unless a particularly good opportunity comes up. In particular, I don't think China is going to act against Russia as long as the war in Ukraine is going on, as China probably wants the West to suffer a strategic defeat in Ukraine, not Russia. They'd probably be happy with a less conclusive result as well, but at the very least I don't think China is going to cause Russia a major defeat during the war in Ukraine. Also, I really doubt China cares about being the largest country in the world. Also, we're talking about two nuclear powers, so all the more reason for opportunism instead of just going for it.

Taiwan, on the other hand, is a long-term goal of China, and in my opinion it's only a matter of time before they act on it, as they've been very consistent about Taiwan. All those military exercises around Taiwan? Probably exactly how the conflict is going to start, and no one's gonna know before it's already started, because we can't easily distinguish between military exercises and a proper invasion. I don't think China is going to do anything there quite yet, but if they're feeling confident, they definitely could, and I don't think it's easy to reliably assess when they're confident enough. Even China seems to think patience is a virtue though, so I doubt they're gonna do anything rash.