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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Ryuu96 said:

Lol maybe someone should educate him

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2400-years-of-european-history

Love the video on that website and the summary of how things moved around.

At the end of the day Europe has changes so much that since WW22 it kind of resembles some sort of peace and stability lol.

You would think the way we have evolved (in theory) an the modern day technology we have to make life easier that the current borders would be satisfactory to all countries. Like lets look at the history we all done some fucked up things to each over, overall there is now enough small states to say we should all be bloody happy to be living in this age and there should be no need for war.

The European Union although not perfect basically resembles the Roman Empire but done through politics and not war. That is what Russia should have been aiming for instead of fear of the west. At end of day we are al one species and should try to work together to better the life of everyone. Imaginary borders mean nothing to mother nature and viruses. Look at COVID it did not discriminate who to attack. Imagine how much quicker we would have and could evolve technologically if we all worked together.



 

 

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Ryuu96 said:

HAHAHA, “Only one racist survived”

Almost certainly true, but Russist or Rashist is probably what the original text said, and got mistranslated.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Sounds way too optimistic with saying "Ukraine isn't losing". To me it looks pretty clear that Russia has learned much better how to deal with the situation while Ukraine who came already from a high standard in tactics doesn't have that learning curve. Russian soldiers seemed to be pretty bad the first months compared to the Ukrainian ones. Russia also seems to manage it pretty well now to destroy a lot of incoming supplies before it even reaches the east of Ukraine while Russia's supplies mostly reach their destination.

There is some explosion of supply here and there on Russian ground but that's nothing to what Russia does even 500 miles into Ukraine.

Russia won't take Ukraine but to me it doesn't look like they will be able to defend anything of Donbas forever right now. And retaking any bigger city when Russia's military will fortify there sounds impossible when Ukraine doesn't get much to attack with. They only get defensive stuff and some howitzers but nothing to really fight back.

Seems like Russia has absolutely no problem to always resupply with ammunition (and also helicopters, jets and tanks when they get destroyed) while Ukraine's soldiers seem more and more to fight with their last shell and have to wait to get more which will also only be enough for a few more days.

I hope I'm wrong but I really don't see much hope for Ukraine defending or even retaking Donbas + some more areas especially in the south. 

Last edited by crissindahouse - on 14 June 2022

Ryuu96 said:
crissindahouse said:

Sounds way too optimistic with saying "Ukraine isn't losing". To me it looks pretty clear that Russia has learned much better how to deal with the situation while Ukraine who came already from a high standard in tactics doesn't have that learning curve. Russian soldiers seemed to be pretty bad the first months compared to the Ukrainian ones. Russia also seems to manage it pretty well now to destroy a lot of incoming supplies before it even reaches the east of Ukraine while Russia's supplies mostly reach their destination.

There is some explosion of supply here and there on Russian ground but that's nothing to what Russia does even 500 miles into Ukraine.

Russia won't take Ukraine but to me it doesn't look like they will be able to defend anything of Donbas forever right now. And retaking any bigger city when Russia's military will fortify there sounds impossible when Ukraine doesn't get much to attack with. They only get defensive stuff and some howitzers but nothing to really fight back.

Seems like Russia has absolutely no problem to always resupply with ammunition (and also helicopters, jets and tanks when they get destroyed) while Ukraine's soldiers seem more and more to fight with their last shell and have to wait to get more which will also only be enough for a few more days.

I hope I'm wrong but I really don't see much hope for Ukraine defending or even retaking Donbas + some more areas especially in the south. 

Ukraine has gained territory, Russia has gained territory, Ukraine has done successful attacks, Russia has done successful attacks, barely anything has changed in weeks, I believe that is why he says Ukraine isn't losing right now, it's a slugfest as he says. Ukraine is focused on defence and logistics right now and Russia is focused on overwhelming with artillery, Ukraine has already said weeks ago that their counterattack wouldn't start until mid-June at the earliest, we've got to remember this is a war that could last a very long time.

Personally, I see little signs that Russia has learnt how to deal with the situation more effectively, they're doing what they've done since the start of the war which is bombard with artillery then send thousands of troops to their death in an effort to overwhelm the enemy, except now it's concentrated in one area (Donabs) rather than spread across Ukraine so the overwhelming tactic is more effective.

Where do you see that Russia is destroying a lot of Ukraine's supplies before they reach the east? I've seen it mentioned a few times here and I have seen Russia bomb a few facilities in the west over the months but I can't say I've seen it enough to be overly concerned. Remember how gigantic Ukraine is in terms of landmass and that most Howitzers have to be towed by trucks, that is why logistics are so slow with heavy equipment, Ukraine can't do it by sea or air either. That's another reason why MLRS are good because not only do they have better range and are far deadlier, they don't have to be towed.

Naturally Russia will have an advantage in logistics (or should do) in that, Russia is literally bordering the territory they're invading and Ukraine has to get their stuff from west to east so it will be slower, as a result, Ukraine has to rely on being defensive for quite a while and it's vital that Western equipment keeps pumping in on a regular basis.

They do receive more than simply defensive weapons but they need a lot of it, the West needs to keep supplying them, they definitely need more, the MLRS are a very good step up from Howitzers but are low in quantity (for now) and have yet to enter the battlefield, the drones and artillery are more better for stemming the bleeding, the West does have far better equipment than Russia does though so as long as supply continues then it gives Ukraine a fighting chance.

Russia IS in fact, struggling with resupply, the sanctions have already hurt their capability to build new stuff for their war machine, they have had to resort to using ancient shit cause their modern stuff is being destroyed, we had reports weeks ago that Russia is struggling with their tanks, Russian is resorting to using old Howitzers, old Tanks, old armoured carriers, etc. Unfortunately, Russia has a shit ton of old shit in reserve.

Though I'm honestly not sure how Donbas will go, Russia can fortify which will make retaking it harder, I wouldn't be surprised if fighting on Donbas borders lasts for years unless the West seriously steps up their weapon deliveries, it's unfortunately a possibility that Russia manages to hold Donbas but we'll see, I do have more confidence in Ukraine retaking Kherson though.

The Donets is what helped Ukraine a lot the last weeks to stop Russia's forces but that river won't help forever (and will start to help Russia when they cross it at different locations). Once Russia will encircle Lysychansk from the south (where they make slow but steady progress like every few days) or from the north if they will manage to break through at Droniovka, Zakitne or a few other places then the biggest barrier will be broken for a pretty big area. 

And the gap between Russian forces at the Donets and Russian forces coming from Popasna's direction is like 12 miles now. There is not much space left and Russia will have encircled Slovyansk. Not directly but some miles west of it to cut of any new supply which could help. Pretty much like it happend with Mariupol. 

I really hope Ukraine will manage to defend some parts of Donbas to never lose it to Russia but I really don't see how that shall happen right now. It's obviously Russia's main goal and the supply Ukraine does get is just not enough right now. They do get some weaponry they can use for offensive attacks but to retake areas super important for Russia? I don't know...

And if you really think that Russia doesn't hit at least some important weapon deliveries before they even arrive you are a little bit too optimistic in my opinion. Russia obviously also knows some stuff about which routes they use and where they store their weaponry. Just because Ukraine doesn't say that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. It will at least happen way more than what Ukraine manages to destroy on Russia's ground supposed to go to Ukraine. Just look low Russia is bombarding even places in the middle of Ukraine hundreds of miles away from any fighting. That's not all just random rockets without any important target.

Last edited by crissindahouse - on 14 June 2022

Kinda miss to post this yesterday (Sorry busy with a new kid at home ;) )
This is yesterday number in order to keep comparison between weeks easy.



Compared to last week.
+1050Troops
+2 Planes
+46 Tanks
+2 Helicopters
+92 Personnel carriers (APV)
+28 Artillery
+19 MLRS
+34 UAV
+1 Special equipment
+65 Vehicles/fuel tanks (now combined)

Key takeaways:
Looks like the number remains consistent over the past 3 weeks.
Russia losses in troops are now well above twice those they endure during their time in Afghanistan.



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Nahh, I barely follow German news and I know the news is pretty much everytime "can't be verified if a weapon depot or supply on the way really got destroyed" but I simply don't believe that this doesn't happen regularly. Same on Russian ground but sadly only very close to the border.



crissindahouse said:

Nahh, I barely follow German news and I know the news is pretty much everytime "can't be verified if a weapon depot or supply on the way really got destroyed" but I simply don't believe that this doesn't happen regularly. Same on Russian ground but sadly only very close to the border.

To some level, the can't be verified bit is news organisations covering themselves and reality being clouded by the fog of war.

In the aftermath, rebuttals will appear if the claim is disproved. Lack of them may suggest the claims are real (not always). It can be hard to say, it can be down to a bit of guesswork on an individual level.



If China wouldn't like to be Russia's friend so much and if India wouldn't buy all the shit Russia can't sell anymore to other countries it would be even better. Those two countries have almost 3 billion people Russia can still count on as if nothing happened. Russia's future would look so dead economical without them.



Ryuu96 said:

This guy...just imagine Macron would say to Biden and Xi Jinping "Hamburger loving American and duck loving Chinese dude" lol...

And what kind of argument is that with the train? "Hey we bombarded all airfields close to Kiev and now I can laugh about politicians using a train instead of a plane"? Damn...



crissindahouse said:

If China wouldn't like to be Russia's friend so much and if India wouldn't buy all the shit Russia can't sell anymore to other countries it would be even better. Those two countries have almost 3 billion people Russia can still count on as if nothing happened. Russia's future would look so dead economical without them.

That's a reality we're going to be dealing with a lot more as time goes on, on a lot more issues. China has the perfect client state in Russia. Russia sells all the oil and agricultural products China wants, and in return, China supports the Russian regime financially.