Ryuu96 said:
crissindahouse said:
Sounds way too optimistic with saying "Ukraine isn't losing". To me it looks pretty clear that Russia has learned much better how to deal with the situation while Ukraine who came already from a high standard in tactics doesn't have that learning curve. Russian soldiers seemed to be pretty bad the first months compared to the Ukrainian ones. Russia also seems to manage it pretty well now to destroy a lot of incoming supplies before it even reaches the east of Ukraine while Russia's supplies mostly reach their destination.
There is some explosion of supply here and there on Russian ground but that's nothing to what Russia does even 500 miles into Ukraine.
Russia won't take Ukraine but to me it doesn't look like they will be able to defend anything of Donbas forever right now. And retaking any bigger city when Russia's military will fortify there sounds impossible when Ukraine doesn't get much to attack with. They only get defensive stuff and some howitzers but nothing to really fight back.
Seems like Russia has absolutely no problem to always resupply with ammunition (and also helicopters, jets and tanks when they get destroyed) while Ukraine's soldiers seem more and more to fight with their last shell and have to wait to get more which will also only be enough for a few more days.
I hope I'm wrong but I really don't see much hope for Ukraine defending or even retaking Donbas + some more areas especially in the south.
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Ukraine has gained territory, Russia has gained territory, Ukraine has done successful attacks, Russia has done successful attacks, barely anything has changed in weeks, I believe that is why he says Ukraine isn't losing right now, it's a slugfest as he says. Ukraine is focused on defence and logistics right now and Russia is focused on overwhelming with artillery, Ukraine has already said weeks ago that their counterattack wouldn't start until mid-June at the earliest, we've got to remember this is a war that could last a very long time.
Personally, I see little signs that Russia has learnt how to deal with the situation more effectively, they're doing what they've done since the start of the war which is bombard with artillery then send thousands of troops to their death in an effort to overwhelm the enemy, except now it's concentrated in one area (Donabs) rather than spread across Ukraine so the overwhelming tactic is more effective.
Where do you see that Russia is destroying a lot of Ukraine's supplies before they reach the east? I've seen it mentioned a few times here and I have seen Russia bomb a few facilities in the west over the months but I can't say I've seen it enough to be overly concerned. Remember how gigantic Ukraine is in terms of landmass and that most Howitzers have to be towed by trucks, that is why logistics are so slow with heavy equipment, Ukraine can't do it by sea or air either. That's another reason why MLRS are good because not only do they have better range and are far deadlier, they don't have to be towed.
Naturally Russia will have an advantage in logistics (or should do) in that, Russia is literally bordering the territory they're invading and Ukraine has to get their stuff from west to east so it will be slower, as a result, Ukraine has to rely on being defensive for quite a while and it's vital that Western equipment keeps pumping in on a regular basis.
They do receive more than simply defensive weapons but they need a lot of it, the West needs to keep supplying them, they definitely need more, the MLRS are a very good step up from Howitzers but are low in quantity (for now) and have yet to enter the battlefield, the drones and artillery are more better for stemming the bleeding, the West does have far better equipment than Russia does though so as long as supply continues then it gives Ukraine a fighting chance.
Russia IS in fact, struggling with resupply, the sanctions have already hurt their capability to build new stuff for their war machine, they have had to resort to using ancient shit cause their modern stuff is being destroyed, we had reports weeks ago that Russia is struggling with their tanks, Russian is resorting to using old Howitzers, old Tanks, old armoured carriers, etc. Unfortunately, Russia has a shit ton of old shit in reserve.
Though I'm honestly not sure how Donbas will go, Russia can fortify which will make retaking it harder, I wouldn't be surprised if fighting on Donbas borders lasts for years unless the West seriously steps up their weapon deliveries, it's unfortunately a possibility that Russia manages to hold Donbas but we'll see, I do have more confidence in Ukraine retaking Kherson though.
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