Ryuu96 said:
Ukraine has gained territory, Russia has gained territory, Ukraine has done successful attacks, Russia has done successful attacks, barely anything has changed in weeks, I believe that is why he says Ukraine isn't losing right now, it's a slugfest as he says. Ukraine is focused on defence and logistics right now and Russia is focused on overwhelming with artillery, Ukraine has already said weeks ago that their counterattack wouldn't start until mid-June at the earliest, we've got to remember this is a war that could last a very long time. Personally, I see little signs that Russia has learnt how to deal with the situation more effectively, they're doing what they've done since the start of the war which is bombard with artillery then send thousands of troops to their death in an effort to overwhelm the enemy, except now it's concentrated in one area (Donabs) rather than spread across Ukraine so the overwhelming tactic is more effective. Where do you see that Russia is destroying a lot of Ukraine's supplies before they reach the east? I've seen it mentioned a few times here and I have seen Russia bomb a few facilities in the west over the months but I can't say I've seen it enough to be overly concerned. Remember how gigantic Ukraine is in terms of landmass and that most Howitzers have to be towed by trucks, that is why logistics are so slow with heavy equipment, Ukraine can't do it by sea or air either. That's another reason why MLRS are good because not only do they have better range and are far deadlier, they don't have to be towed. Naturally Russia will have an advantage in logistics (or should do) in that, Russia is literally bordering the territory they're invading and Ukraine has to get their stuff from west to east so it will be slower, as a result, Ukraine has to rely on being defensive for quite a while and it's vital that Western equipment keeps pumping in on a regular basis. They do receive more than simply defensive weapons but they need a lot of it, the West needs to keep supplying them, they definitely need more, the MLRS are a very good step up from Howitzers but are low in quantity (for now) and have yet to enter the battlefield, the drones and artillery are more better for stemming the bleeding, the West does have far better equipment than Russia does though so as long as supply continues then it gives Ukraine a fighting chance. Russia IS in fact, struggling with resupply, the sanctions have already hurt their capability to build new stuff for their war machine, they have had to resort to using ancient shit cause their modern stuff is being destroyed, we had reports weeks ago that Russia is struggling with their tanks, Russian is resorting to using old Howitzers, old Tanks, old armoured carriers, etc. Unfortunately, Russia has a shit ton of old shit in reserve. Though I'm honestly not sure how Donbas will go, Russia can fortify which will make retaking it harder, I wouldn't be surprised if fighting on Donbas borders lasts for years unless the West seriously steps up their weapon deliveries, it's unfortunately a possibility that Russia manages to hold Donbas but we'll see, I do have more confidence in Ukraine retaking Kherson though. |
The Donets is what helped Ukraine a lot the last weeks to stop Russia's forces but that river won't help forever (and will start to help Russia when they cross it at different locations). Once Russia will encircle Lysychansk from the south (where they make slow but steady progress like every few days) or from the north if they will manage to break through at Droniovka, Zakitne or a few other places then the biggest barrier will be broken for a pretty big area.
And the gap between Russian forces at the Donets and Russian forces coming from Popasna's direction is like 12 miles now. There is not much space left and Russia will have encircled Slovyansk. Not directly but some miles west of it to cut of any new supply which could help. Pretty much like it happend with Mariupol.
I really hope Ukraine will manage to defend some parts of Donbas to never lose it to Russia but I really don't see how that shall happen right now. It's obviously Russia's main goal and the supply Ukraine does get is just not enough right now. They do get some weaponry they can use for offensive attacks but to retake areas super important for Russia? I don't know...
And if you really think that Russia doesn't hit at least some important weapon deliveries before they even arrive you are a little bit too optimistic in my opinion. Russia obviously also knows some stuff about which routes they use and where they store their weaponry. Just because Ukraine doesn't say that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. It will at least happen way more than what Ukraine manages to destroy on Russia's ground supposed to go to Ukraine. Just look low Russia is bombarding even places in the middle of Ukraine hundreds of miles away from any fighting. That's not all just random rockets without any important target.
Last edited by crissindahouse - on 14 June 2022
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