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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ said:

I like your analysis.

Personally, I think Game Freak has had access to successor dev kits since ~July 2023. This allows Game Freak to come up with ideas for gen 10 to release 4 years after gen 9 release. I think The Pokémon Company will follow through with what their COO said, in which they will take some time (probably 1 more year) to polish their main games. That allows 1 year to imagine a game, and 3 years to develop it (2026 release). In the meantime they will release a Legends game, and outsource a remake for 2024 & 2025. Gen 10 will release on the successor, but the Legends and remake will be on the Switch. 

I agree with 142m by Mar 31 2024. Though I can expect to see ~11m by Mar 31 2025, and will put a price cut on the Switch. I personally believe it can sell 162.36m.

The thing I have a problem believing is that gamefreak will really make their games quality improve or even wait three years. We've told gamefreak we will buy 25 million copies of pokemon scarlet and violet the broken buggy unfinished game. I don't think they'll take longer, but that's me trying not to give a bad company like gamefreak a pass until they improve the quality of their game.  



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burninmylight said:

Thank you for reminding me about Switch Sports; I forgot that one even exists. I thought of RFA, but figured that like Wii Sports Resort, a sequel would mostly attract people who already have the console, not potential new customers. Funny that you didn't mention Nintendogs, where the 3DS sequel sold like a sixth of the original. It was so popular of a launch title that it helped Nintendo slash the price of the system four months later.

F-Zero has a critic score of 89 and a user score of 8.7 on Metacritic. I'm sorry if you couldn't get past the second race in story mode. EDIT: almost forgot about your other low-hanging sore anus I mean fruit, that being F-Zero going online. You must have completely missed F-Zero 99, an entirely online version of the SNES game. It currently has an 8.4 rating on Metacritic among 74 user ratings and is still supported. Is that the "the long waiting times from one race to the next" and online bullshit you're referring to?

Never said that new games aren't important. I just don't think there are any last big blockbusters for the Switch at this point. Every release now is for the massive install base and to show that the current console won't be left out in the wilderness to rot like many Nintendo consoles of the past.

I didn't mention Nintendogs because it has no Switch game yet, so it wouldn't work to refute your stupid claim that its audience is content with smartphones now; I didn't mention Wii Fit U and Wii Sports Club from the same generation either, because it's pointless to talk about these games when it's abundantly clear that Nintendo did its best to push these gamers away, or pretty much anyone who liked the Wii, as can be seen by the low sales of the Wii U. Nintendogs on the 3DS wasn't the reason for the early price cut of the system, it was the 3D feature of the hardware and the software drought that tanked its sales, hence why Nintendo eating the cost of 3D along with a steadier release schedule fixed the 3DS for the most part; eventually they did release hardware revisions without the 3D though. Or in short, your sales analyses are off the mark.

F-Zero GX being a disappointing game is not because of its difficulty; I beat the entire game on all difficulty settings twice, something that hardly anyone else can say, so I know what I am talking about; it also didn't sell well which is why F-Zero is dormant to begin with. I am not impressed at all by F-Zero 99's numbers on Metacritic, because it's a free addition to NSO for people who already paid for the service anyway; 74 user ratings is a very, very low number for a game that 20m+ users have access to; compare that to 47 user ratings for Another Code Recollection, a total niche game that people had to pay full price for because it released last month.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Pokémon will not be releasing a holiday title this year. It is another blank year like 2016.
The new game will be releasing in 2025 for the Switch (as the trailer shows), so now I'm thinking this will be the crossover title to play on both Switch and successor.
Hmmm, without the holiday game being a Pokémon game, that means Nintendo has to pick up the slack. Can we assume that Metroid Prime 4 will be the holiday game then? (The person that leaked Epic Mickey Rebrushed has a leak for Metroid Prime 4, which is to release in May but he says it could've changed dates.)
What do we think could be the holiday game then?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Donkey Kong is my wild guess for the holidays 

Last edited by 160rmf - on 27 February 2024

 

 

We reap what we sow

Last year around this time 'insiders' were claiming that Tears of the Kingdom would be the last hurrah for the Switch. Then the June direct happened and Nintendo announced lots of games for the second half of 2023, including a brand new Mario platformer.



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RolStoppable said:
burninmylight said:

Thank you for reminding me about Switch Sports; I forgot that one even exists. I thought of RFA, but figured that like Wii Sports Resort, a sequel would mostly attract people who already have the console, not potential new customers. Funny that you didn't mention Nintendogs, where the 3DS sequel sold like a sixth of the original. It was so popular of a launch title that it helped Nintendo slash the price of the system four months later.

F-Zero has a critic score of 89 and a user score of 8.7 on Metacritic. I'm sorry if you couldn't get past the second race in story mode. EDIT: almost forgot about your other low-hanging sore anus I mean fruit, that being F-Zero going online. You must have completely missed F-Zero 99, an entirely online version of the SNES game. It currently has an 8.4 rating on Metacritic among 74 user ratings and is still supported. Is that the "the long waiting times from one race to the next" and online bullshit you're referring to?

Never said that new games aren't important. I just don't think there are any last big blockbusters for the Switch at this point. Every release now is for the massive install base and to show that the current console won't be left out in the wilderness to rot like many Nintendo consoles of the past.

I didn't mention Nintendogs because it has no Switch game yet, so it wouldn't work to refute your stupid claim that its audience is content with smartphones now; I didn't mention Wii Fit U and Wii Sports Club from the same generation either, because it's pointless to talk about these games when it's abundantly clear that Nintendo did its best to push these gamers away, or pretty much anyone who liked the Wii, as can be seen by the low sales of the Wii U. Nintendogs on the 3DS wasn't the reason for the early price cut of the system, it was the 3D feature of the hardware and the software drought that tanked its sales, hence why Nintendo eating the cost of 3D along with a steadier release schedule fixed the 3DS for the most part; eventually they did release hardware revisions without the 3D though. Or in short, your sales analyses are off the mark.

F-Zero GX being a disappointing game is not because of its difficulty; I beat the entire game on all difficulty settings twice, something that hardly anyone else can say, so I know what I am talking about; it also didn't sell well which is why F-Zero is dormant to begin with. I am not impressed at all by F-Zero 99's numbers on Metacritic, because it's a free addition to NSO for people who already paid for the service anyway; 74 user ratings is a very, very low number for a game that 20m+ users have access to; compare that to 47 user ratings for Another Code Recollection, a total niche game that people had to pay full price for because it released last month.

You didn't mention Nintendogs or the Wii U games because they contradict what you're saying. And c'mon man, we both know I didn't literally mean Nintendogs is the reason the 3DS received the early price cut; I was making a point that the roughly 24 million people who bought in on DS weren't there for the 3DS sequel, and Nintendo banked on that.

I'm not playing this game where you choose which of my words you want to take literally, and which you want to interpret in whatever manner fits your agenda. At least with Norion, I asked for clarification and acknowledged what he could have meant in reply before you decided to apply your own interpretation and run with it. You've been on this site, lurking in each thread waiting to pounce on any post you can rip apart in an attempt at a public display of humiliation since before I joined, and I'm kinda over it. So fine, you're right. You win. There you go. Bye now.



burninmylight said:

You didn't mention Nintendogs or the Wii U games because they contradict what you're saying. And c'mon man, we both know I didn't literally mean Nintendogs is the reason the 3DS received the early price cut; I was making a point that the roughly 24 million people who bought in on DS weren't there for the 3DS sequel, and Nintendo banked on that.

I'm not playing this game where you choose which of my words you want to take literally, and which you want to interpret in whatever manner fits your agenda. At least with Norion, I asked for clarification and acknowledged what he could have meant in reply before you decided to apply your own interpretation and run with it. You've been on this site, lurking in each thread waiting to pounce on any post you can rip apart in an attempt at a public display of humiliation since before I joined, and I'm kinda over it. So fine, you're right. You win. There you go. Bye now.

Why would there be a contradiction when your assertion regarding the Wii Sports crowd being gone is proven wrong by the latest game Switch Sports? The 3DS and especially the Wii U are outliers in Nintendo's history; even Mario Kart 8 sold only 8m copies on the Wii U, so we can safely say that the general interest in any Nintendo IP cannot be gauged by the sales of Wii U installments. And obviously sales of Switch games (Ring Fit Adventure, Switch Sports) are more relevant than sales on any other console when discussing potential new Switch games.

I am glad that you are finally willing to stop. Why am I supposed to know when you are serious or use extensive hyperbole? When you complain about misinterpretation, you should at least hold up your end, especially in a discussion that only exists in the first place because of the way you addressed Norion. I don't think any observer of this thread thinks that you are the good guy here. But it's also not that I think you are bad, rather it's that you missed the point where you should have reconsidered and instead doubled down, so that's how it got so far.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
burninmylight said:

You didn't mention Nintendogs or the Wii U games because they contradict what you're saying. And c'mon man, we both know I didn't literally mean Nintendogs is the reason the 3DS received the early price cut; I was making a point that the roughly 24 million people who bought in on DS weren't there for the 3DS sequel, and Nintendo banked on that.

I'm not playing this game where you choose which of my words you want to take literally, and which you want to interpret in whatever manner fits your agenda. At least with Norion, I asked for clarification and acknowledged what he could have meant in reply before you decided to apply your own interpretation and run with it. You've been on this site, lurking in each thread waiting to pounce on any post you can rip apart in an attempt at a public display of humiliation since before I joined, and I'm kinda over it. So fine, you're right. You win. There you go. Bye now.

Why would there be a contradiction when your assertion regarding the Wii Sports crowd being gone is proven wrong by the latest game Switch Sports? The 3DS and especially the Wii U are outliers in Nintendo's history; even Mario Kart 8 sold only 8m copies on the Wii U, so we can safely say that the general interest in any Nintendo IP cannot be gauged by the sales of Wii U installments. And obviously sales of Switch games (Ring Fit Adventure, Switch Sports) are more relevant than sales on any other console when discussing potential new Switch games.

I am glad that you are finally willing to stop. Why am I supposed to know when you are serious or use extensive hyperbole? When you complain about misinterpretation, you should at least hold up your end, especially in a discussion that only exists in the first place because of the way you addressed Norion. I don't think any observer of this thread thinks that you are the good guy here. But it's also not that I think you are bad, rather it's that you missed the point where you should have reconsidered and instead doubled down, so that's how it got so far.

I don't understand why you all keep acting like this is a competition to see who can get the most likes or something. I'm not the least bit worried about who is perceived as "the good guy," and it doesn't change the fact that I repeatedly tried to get clarification so I could make sure I was addressing his post from the correct perspective. It doesn't change the fact that you flew in with your own interpretation of the statement I was addressing and escalated it even further. This was after I acknowledged that I may have missed the point and said what I thought that point may have been, albeit cynically because if that was the case, it could have been said much sooner. You conveniently ignored that part, because why be reasonable when you can muddy the water even further?

For the record, Norion reached out to me privately, and we talked it out with cool, rational heads. I finally got my understanding and apologized for stooping to the level I did. We both felt slighted and provoked, so we didn't respond well. I may not be "the good guy" but my intentions weren't to rouse rabble in the first place. You can act like knight in shining armor all you want, but I can throw a dart at any random post in your history and chances are I'll hit one where your whole goal was to undermine someone, throw shade, make them look like a fool, prove how wrong they are, or just push the limits of the site's rules at someone's expense. It really says something that your responses to the matter are all about what you perceive as winning and losing. No one calls you the good guy in any situation, because you never come in with good intentions.



burninmylight said:

I don't understand why you all keep acting like this is a competition to see who can get the most likes or something. I'm not the least bit worried about who is perceived as "the good guy," and it doesn't change the fact that I repeatedly tried to get clarification so I could make sure I was addressing his post from the correct perspective. It doesn't change the fact that you flew in with your own interpretation of the statement I was addressing and escalated it even further. This was after I acknowledged that I may have missed the point and said what I thought that point may have been, albeit cynically because if that was the case, it could have been said much sooner. You conveniently ignored that part, because why be reasonable when you can muddy the water even further?

For the record, Norion reached out to me privately, and we talked it out with cool, rational heads. I finally got my understanding and apologized for stooping to the level I did. We both felt slighted and provoked, so we didn't respond well. I may not be "the good guy" but my intentions weren't to rouse rabble in the first place. You can act like knight in shining armor all you want, but I can throw a dart at any random post in your history and chances are I'll hit one where your whole goal was to undermine someone, throw shade, make them look like a fool, prove how wrong they are, or just push the limits of the site's rules at someone's expense. It really says something that your responses to the matter are all about what you perceive as winning and losing. No one calls you the good guy in any situation, because you never come in with good intentions.

Good that you talked to Norion to clear up this mess.

I must say that I find it funny that this post of yours got more likes than all of your previous posts combined.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:
burninmylight said:

I don't understand why you all keep acting like this is a competition to see who can get the most likes or something. I'm not the least bit worried about who is perceived as "the good guy," and it doesn't change the fact that I repeatedly tried to get clarification so I could make sure I was addressing his post from the correct perspective. It doesn't change the fact that you flew in with your own interpretation of the statement I was addressing and escalated it even further. This was after I acknowledged that I may have missed the point and said what I thought that point may have been, albeit cynically because if that was the case, it could have been said much sooner. You conveniently ignored that part, because why be reasonable when you can muddy the water even further?

For the record, Norion reached out to me privately, and we talked it out with cool, rational heads. I finally got my understanding and apologized for stooping to the level I did. We both felt slighted and provoked, so we didn't respond well. I may not be "the good guy" but my intentions weren't to rouse rabble in the first place. You can act like knight in shining armor all you want, but I can throw a dart at any random post in your history and chances are I'll hit one where your whole goal was to undermine someone, throw shade, make them look like a fool, prove how wrong they are, or just push the limits of the site's rules at someone's expense. It really says something that your responses to the matter are all about what you perceive as winning and losing. No one calls you the good guy in any situation, because you never come in with good intentions.

Good that you talked to Norion to clear up this mess.

I must say that I find it funny that this post of yours got more likes than all of your previous posts combined.

You finding that funny is on brand. When you're just an ambush predator with a mindset based on being right instead of making things right and you think the whole point of communication here is winning vs. losing, or "good guy vs. bad guy", that would seem absurd.

But since whose right and wrong and who has the most likes are the languages you understand, you'll be glad to know that you're wrong. According to my notifications, I've gotten at least six likes on my previous posts in this thread. For a guy who prides himself on knowing his stuff to throw shade at others, it's surprising your Likes analysis is so off the mark.

Thanks for pointing it out though. People usually leave a Like when they agree with the post. That post was about your years-long tirade of toxic behavior. Do the math.