No, how do you take hypotheticals too seriously?
burninmylight has a point. So how are you gonna explain "why having an earlier launch would have increased the availability of stock."

We can be reasonable people and have conversations even interesting conversations like this, and why can't we see how far the iceberg goes? (rhetorical) If it gets personal, we should ere on the side of caution.

I'm curious about that question regarding earlier launch.

By going into the realism of it when that is irrelevant to the point. I don't have to explain that since I'm not arguing that they should've launched it in late 2016 with the circumstances they had, just that it would've been better if they had different circumstances back then making it feasible for Nintendo to launch it then.

It really feels like you're using the word "hypothetical" as a scapegoat to hide that you have nothing to back up your claims other than what-if scenarios. Yeah, IF Nintendo had the launch lineup and stock ready by Q3 or Q4 2016, maybe it should have launched the Switch sooner. IF Nintendo would have went with CDs for the N64, maybe it would have crushed Sony and the video game landscape as we know it today would be vastly different. IF it went with standard DVDs and a black color scheme for the launch GCN, that console would have sold much better. IF it embraced HD resolution and online gaming sooner with the Wii, that console wouldn't be seen as the casual machine. IF it didn't force the big bulky controller of the Wii U and gone with a less stupid name, that console wouldn't be it's worst selling home console ever.

If all you're going to is devolve any basis of a point you had into further make believe scenarios with ideal conditions, then why even continue? This is a message board where we have receipts, not a playground argument where we don't. It's pretty clear that you started out speaking in absolutes, not hypothetical:

Sounds like a statement of supposed conviction and belief to me, not hypothetical pondering

OK, so I'll spot you the claim that you're just talking about  a "What if in hindsight?" scenario for the Switch 1's launch. Now explain why this applies to the Switch 2. I will repeat what I and others have said ad infinitum in this thread: if it sales out regardless of when it launches, then it makes absolutely no difference when it launches. The result is the same, demand outpaces supply and there is no holiday season to take advantage of. It's actually the opposite: the holiday season is wasted because these is no sales boost from it. The only thing causing a "weak" quarter is being so woefully stripped of resources to output more units that it  hurts sales figures and/or forces Nintendo to lower projections. When is the last time Nintendo had a weak quarter?

So again I ask, answer that last question, then explain to me how launching sooner would help prevent stock shortages for the Switch 2. Then explain to me how launching outside of the holidays makes for a weak quarter sans stock issues.

No more playing make believe. Shit or get off the pot.

I understand that. You most likely know that situation Nintendo was in during the WiiU era. They had little-to-no 3rd party backing, and every game that was released was selling around 5M units. The best selling is Mario Kart 8 at 8.46M. Nintendo already had the specs and prototype for the Switch set up and knew they needed to get it out fast, and early (They knew that they wouldn't be able to "survive" another 3 years, hence why the Switch launch "mid-cycle"). They didn't have enough Switch stock in the first couple of months, and that is probably the decent point that can be addressed. They had made the Nvidia chip deal back in Jul 27, 2016. Personally, I dont know how long it takes to manufacture a Switch or a couple million so I can make assumptions (Nintendo thinks they can ship 1.76 million units from Jan 1 to Mar 31). Now Nintendo Switch is in the latter years so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they can manufacture about 2-3x that amount in 3 mounts. So if they were to launch it in Nov 2016, they would have ~3 months to manufacture, ship, and ensure quality, and quantity of their games (Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild). I can assume they would have ~5M units for the holidays available for launch. 

The other point that is the more likely reason, for Mar launch, were the games. Was Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild ready to be released in Nov 2016? My only assumption is no, because they went for a Mar release when a significant portion of consoles from Nintendo has released near the holiday season in the past (there have been many Spring releases, and Summer releases as well).

If their circumstances were more in favor of Nintendo having a Nov 2016 release, I think Nintendo could have been able to sell more, around 6M more units. But if it would've launched in Nov 2016, would they Switch have caught on so fast, and be as beloved as it is, the pandemic boosted it so much, would it have not been relevant in 2020? idk. It is something to consider, what circumstances are you considering?

See post right above mine.

And no, burninmylight doesn't have a point. Nintendo made the decision to delay the launch of Switch (back then still known as NX) to March 2017 in early 2016 already, hence why their shipment forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2017 was set at 2m when said forecast was made in April 2016. The only reason mentioned for the delay was that not enough software would have been ready for a holiday 2016 launch and the first half of 2017 to maintain sales momentum. There was no word on any problems concerning components for production, unlike for the 3DS which missed its planned holiday 2010 launch window solely due to not enough hardware units being ready by that time.

So what this means is that Switch entered mass production at a later date, because the launch date was pushed back for software reasons only and this was known inside Nintendo well in advance. In other words, if Switch had been launched in late 2016, then production would have started earlier and at a higher rate due to a holiday launch. In reality Nintendo could ship 2.74m units by the end of March 2017, but in the hypothetical of a late 2016 launch they would have had produced at least 5.0m by the end of March 2017.

This very same scenario will apply for Switch's successor, IF it is confirmed by Nintendo that holiday 2024 is not feasible due to not enough software being ready. This will be a basic question by investors, IF Switch's successor doesn't launch in 2024, because they sure will want to know why Nintendo is missing the holiday window. I am using ifs here because everything is still rumors at this time.

Having games not ready is a valid reason to delay a launch. I'd rather have a finished product, then an unfinished product.

And I agree that if it did release in Nov 2016 then the Switch would have ~6M by Mar 31 2017 instead of 2.74M. 

Honestly if Nintendo announces that they delayed the successor due to (insert reason) then it is valid. The company could have worries, and that's okay.
If Nintendo doesn't say that they delay the successor, then it isn't a delay and they aren't missing the holiday window.

Nintendo won't call it a delay when there was never a clear roadmap outlined by them to begin with, but if they don't launch during the holiday season, investors will want to know the reason anyway.

Why do investors think that Nintendo has to launch the successor this year?

Because we want to see profits year-on-year. The higher the dividend, the happier the shareholder, and those dividends are generated by profits.

This isn't to say that launching next year will damage Nintendo long term, but it is likely to reduce the amount of profit seen in this fiscal year. Shareholders generally think in the short term, because shares are so easy bought and sold that you're invested in the company only as long as you're holding your share. Even those that think in the long term generally have goals or quotas to meet and want an explanation for why a company is missing out on an opportunity to profit and there would certainly be profit in selling Switch 2 systems this holiday.

That's understandable. Thank you.

Since there are no signs of a movie, I am expecting this upcoming FY to be drastically lower. As of Dec 31 2023 Nintendo earned 1,429.61 billion yen in the FY 23/24, and it's still not done yet. The FY '22/23 earned 432.7 billion yen. So no matter what I don't see Nintendo having a YoY profit.