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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ said:
Jumpin said:

They were completely accurate when it came to the Switch. Many other sources argued against them and ended up wrong.

What were they completely accurate about for the Switch? I dont go on Eurogamer for my gaming news.

They were the first ones to completely accurately leak what the Switch would be. A hybrid console with detachable controllers with a Tegra X1 processor that uses cartridges as its format, here's the original article leak: https://www.eurogamer.net/nx-is-a-portable-console-with-detachable-controllers



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zorg1000 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Never played nor watched them so I don't have an opinion on them.

What are your thoughts on those games? Respond by message, unless you make a new post about this topic. Because this is about how the Switch surpasses 160M+ sales.

Seems pretty stupid to actively not want games to come to a system, if you don’t like them don’t buy them, it’s that simple.

Yes I don't. It is that simple.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

haxxiy said:
Shtinamin_ said:

What were they completely accurate about for the Switch? I dont go on Eurogamer for my gaming news.

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/12/eurogamer_report_suggests_nintendo_switch_gpu_runs_60_percent_slower_when_undocked

Yes, and there were meltdowns from some of the more graphic enthusiasts too.

javi741 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

What were they completely accurate about for the Switch? I dont go on Eurogamer for my gaming news.

They were the first ones to completely accurately leak what the Switch would be. A hybrid console with detachable controllers with a Tegra X1 processor that uses cartridges as its format, here's the original article leak: https://www.eurogamer.net/nx-is-a-portable-console-with-detachable-controllers

Thank you! This is excellent.

Honestly, back in 2015-2016 I remember people discussing the NX, how it will look, the patents, and the announcement from Nintendo themselves.
Eurogamer may be correct, we will have to wait and see (most likely a Sept announcement, idk I'll have to give that more thought). Personally, I like hearing about the Nintendo successor releasing in Spring 2025 and how it matches my guestimate I made in November 2023 (but that is rather biased of me).



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

After a better than expected holiday quarter from Nintendo and now reliable sources pointing towards a 2025 release rather than a 2024 release, I've now raised my Switch sales forecast once again from 152 Million sold to 155 Million sold, so now I expect the Switch to outsell the DS and come very close to the PS2, assuming we take the 159M figure of the PS2 that's been estimated, it'll be nice to maybe hear from Sony the confirmed final sales total of the PS2 so the speculation on whether or not the Switch outsold it would stop, but I feel like Sony would only do this if they're confident that the Switch didn't/won't surpass it, cause Sony wouldn't gain anything by admitting your console is officially 2nd all time.

However, I really wouldn't be surprised if Switch sell more than my expected 155M figure, I have a feeling that im being a bit conservative with this forecast, but I'm expecting a big sales drop off once Switch 2 releases because I don't expect Nintendo to give any price drops for the Switch since the market seems already oversaturated with 140M Sold to the point where a price cut wouldn't increase sales by a ton when everyone already owns a Switch, I feel like the price between Switch & Switch 2 will be so close to the point where most people will just get a Switch 2 especially if Switch 2 has backwards compatibilty. But I think if Switch gets even one small price cut it'll be a done deal when it comes to outselling the PS2, or even one new model that isn't even that significant I believe will put it over the top.



Shtinamin_ said:
zorg1000 said:

Seems pretty stupid to actively not want games to come to a system, if you don’t like them don’t buy them, it’s that simple.

Yes I don't. It is that simple.

Personally, I also don't like the GTA franchise but I think the Switch is currently still missing some of the biggest 3rd party franchises that exist (incl. GTA V). It would be very beneficial if Switch 2 gets all of them. Things like Call of Duty, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed (not remasters), Madden, NHL, Tekken, Street Fighter (not old ports), Need for Speed, Final Fantasy (not old versions), Resident Evil (not old versions), Diablo 4, Fallout, Kingdom Hearts 4, Like a Dragon, etc. would definitely bring even more people onboard.

As a side note, I love games with a "bad taste". We have too few of them. Wouldn't it be reviewed that badly, I would love a game like Agony (available for Switch).



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I think the number is going to be 156- 157 million lifetimesales. 160 would require a price cut or something even more drastic like another 2 years on the market.



The world belongs to you-Pan America

Well, if the games won't be ready for launch, then why not delay it. They're not in a big hurry to move away from a 140m userbase.

Shtinamin_ said:
Radek said:

But Nintendo Switch already has mature not family friendly games like Doom, Wolfenstein, GTA Trilogy and Red Dead Redemption.

Yes, I know and I'm disappointed in Nintendo to allow the GTA on their console.
Just not my cup of tea, and I think the GTA franchise is overrated. This forum isnt about GTA though, so I'll leave it at that

Once again, no I dont want to see GTAV, GTAVI or any other GTA franchise on the Nintendo successor at any time.

GTAV has sold what, 180 Million?
Fair to say it's overrated if you consider the gap in sales as an indication of quality above other titles.
But they are better games than they may come across. Almost everything is a parody of something from our world, and it usually doesn't take itself seriously.

That said, I haven't played GTA since Vice City on PS2.

Last edited by Hiku - on 20 February 2024

I suspect Rockstar is tentatively aiming to release GTA6 on Valentine's Day so that will be a hell of an early 2025 if that's the case (I don't think they'll make it, though).



 

 

 

 

 

Shtinamin_ said:

Personally I dont want any GTA on a family-friendly console. I honestly dislike the GTA franchise, so no I do not want to see GTAV as a launch day title on the Nintendo successor.

Eh, you know that only the gta absence won't make it family friendly if there are dozens of other games with gore, violence and sexual content available on that same console... And that happens since N64 and won't be different with Switch's successor.

Also, the key to a sales successfull console is a broad appeal. Being with a family friendly strict image, that's hardly works

Last edited by 160rmf - on 17 February 2024

 

 

We reap what we sow

The question we should be asking is: Where are those sales going to come from?

The Switch is already the #1 selling system of all time in Japan and it's top 3 in North America with not much more room to grow.
Even with price cuts, I think the people who want to own a Switch in those two regions have already got it and really have no interest or reason to double or triple dip unless they get a special edition console they absolutely gotta have - which after all the games that have released on it, what's left?

Metroid Prime and Donkey Kong come to mind. But Metroid has never been a system mover. Donkey Kong, maybe.
The biggest one I can think of is actually a 3rd party game in Japan, the biggest one still missing that I think a lot of people are forgetting about - Dragon Quest XII.
That game is going to do monstrous numbers in Japan when it finally comes out and I could see that serving as the Switch's swan song in its homeland.

But we are at the point where no singular big game or group of smaller games are going to make that much of a difference to where it puts the Switch over the top of the PS2. If Nintendo wants that distinction, and I don't see why they wouldn't - "The Nintendo Switch is the best-selling video game system of all time! This is the power of our IPs and brand across the world!" They'll have to play some cards that they have not needed or wanted to play up to this point, which, as many have already pointed out, are price cuts.

Granted, I don't think price cuts would do much in Japan or North America, for the reasons I already mentioned - It has pretty much reached its ceiling in those regions...
However, I think price cuts could certainly make the difference in Europe and the Rest of the World. The Switch still trails the DS and Game Boy by considerable margins in Europe, so there's room to grow there. And in the Rest of the World, the Switch has blown all previous Nintendo products out of the water and is reaching PS4/PS2 numbers there while maintaining solid levels of sales. In fact, the "Other" region was the only region where Switch sales are actually UP from the year prior! 
(https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240206e.pdf)
So, there's no telling what the ceiling is in the other regions.

When Switch 2 finally does come out, it is going to be up there in terms of price. $400 seems like the likely landing spot and I think $450 is much more likely than $350. While I don't think that will stop it in North America or Japan where Nintendo's brand and presence is strongest, I could see it struggling to get going in Europe and the other, smaller regions because of it - Even with a strong launch lineup.
Because of this, price cuts for all Switch 1 models could be the way to keep the revenue flowing in Europe and ROTW until Switch 2 REALLY gets going in Years 2-3.
They could discontinue the regular model altogether and just go w/ Switch Lite at $150 and Switch OLED at $250. This could help maintain a respectable baseline of sales for Switch 1 post-Switch 2 launch, similar to how PS2 was able to maintain a solid baseline post-PS3 launch. (Granted, there were other factors involved that led to that, mostly on Sony botching the PS3's launch, but still.)

If they do that, I think that would ultimately be what gets the Switch over the top.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 17 February 2024