The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[PAOerfulone]

The question we should be asking is: Where are those sales going to come from?

The Switch is already the #1 selling system of all time in Japan and it's top 3 in North America with not much more room to grow.
Even with price cuts, I think the people who want to own a Switch in those two regions have already got it and really have no interest or reason to double or triple dip unless they get a special edition console they absolutely gotta have - which after all the games that have released on it, what's left?

Metroid Prime and Donkey Kong come to mind. But Metroid has never been a system mover. Donkey Kong, maybe.
The biggest one I can think of is actually a 3rd party game in Japan, the biggest one still missing that I think a lot of people are forgetting about - Dragon Quest XII.
That game is going to do monstrous numbers in Japan when it finally comes out and I could see that serving as the Switch's swan song in its homeland.

But we are at the point where no singular big game or group of smaller games are going to make that much of a difference to where it puts the Switch over the top of the PS2. If Nintendo wants that distinction, and I don't see why they wouldn't - "The Nintendo Switch is the best-selling video game system of all time! This is the power of our IPs and brand across the world!" They'll have to play some cards that they have not needed or wanted to play up to this point, which, as many have already pointed out, are price cuts.

Granted, I don't think price cuts would do much in Japan or North America, for the reasons I already mentioned - It has pretty much reached its ceiling in those regions...
However, I think price cuts could certainly make the difference in Europe and the Rest of the World. The Switch still trails the DS and Game Boy by considerable margins in Europe, so there's room to grow there. And in the Rest of the World, the Switch has blown all previous Nintendo products out of the water and is reaching PS4/PS2 numbers there while maintaining solid levels of sales. In fact, the "Other" region was the only region where Switch sales are actually UP from the year prior! 
(https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240206e.pdf)
So, there's no telling what the ceiling is in the other regions.

When Switch 2 finally does come out, it is going to be up there in terms of price. $400 seems like the likely landing spot and I think $450 is much more likely than $350. While I don't think that will stop it in North America or Japan where Nintendo's brand and presence is strongest, I could see it struggling to get going in Europe and the other, smaller regions because of it - Even with a strong launch lineup.
Because of this, price cuts for all Switch 1 models could be the way to keep the revenue flowing in Europe and ROTW until Switch 2 REALLY gets going in Years 2-3.
They could discontinue the regular model altogether and just go w/ Switch Lite at $150 and Switch OLED at $250. This could help maintain a respectable baseline of sales for Switch 1 post-Switch 2 launch, similar to how PS2 was able to maintain a solid baseline post-PS3 launch. (Granted, there were other factors involved that led to that, mostly on Sony botching the PS3's launch, but still.)

If they do that, I think that would ultimately be what gets the Switch over the top.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 17 February 2024