I totally agree. May I ask what news has led you to say this?
I just like to discuss on the whys and hows. So if you could explain yourself in why you think that I think we can have a wonderful, eventful, and constructive discussion. :)

I personally think the Switch will reach 162.36M.
I discuss my reasoning on page 53 of this forum discussion.
I also think that if they release more Special Edition Switchs then the road to +160M will be secured easily.

This could be what Retro is doing, while they render the cutscenes, they could have another team working on a NG port, something similar to BotW. That would be nice. But if Nintendo wants to sell the NG why even have a Switch version? Would it be the same reason BotW was on the WiiU? A promise? It does make sense.
But I still stand on the releasing a 3D Mario Adventure for the flagship launch for the NG, and MP4 will have it Switch & NG, to appease the Metroid fans.

Most typical Nintendo players I know do not like playing first person games. Japan gamers are notoriously not into first person games much.

When Metroid Prime came out, it was a novelty that was featured heavily in magazines and obviously it reviewed very well. A lot of people gave it a try. But the drop in sales with Prime2 and only a mild recovery with Prime3 on a 100+ million console, tells me that a lot of typical Nintendo players could not gel with the first party gameplay.

The Prime fandom is there, but isn't very large. The mildly disappointing sales of Prime remastered is another reason I believe Prime4 will not be the huge seller that people think. Perhaps somewhere around 2 million.

2 million?  Yeah, I just wanted to quote that for posterity.  Prime 4 is doing 4 million minimum.  It could even go above 5.  Metroid Dread, a full price 2D game did 3 million.  

Prime being an FPS isn't the reason why it's niche. We've seen 2D Metroid games that fall more in line with the typical 2D Platform generes Nintendo fans love but would still sell low. Goldeneye is an exclusive Nintendo FPS and it was one of the bestselling N64 games, and I'm sure any other more accessible FPS would do just fine on a Nintendo platform.

Metroid is niche thanks in part to its atmosphere. It's dark, it's isolated with very little story. It's not as bright, lively, and colorful looking like Mario & Zelda, which makes those games more approachable. Metroid also has more complicated controls and gameplay compared to many other games for it to be as popular.

But yea Metroid will always remain niche, won't be a system seller due to the nature of its atmosphere and gameplay. A lot of people probably got turned off by Prime 1 on the GC which led to Prime 2 selling far worse, probably since the game isn't a typical 1st person shooter game like they were expecting and is more of a exploration adventure experience. Prime 3 selling that low on a 100 Million install base should also speak volumes that Metroid will always remain niche. I could see Prime 4 maybe selling 5 Million at best.

Literally my whole argument has been that Switch 2 is not remotely comparable to the cross gen examples you’re using. It’s going to be a way way bigger jump. It would be like trying to do cross gen titles for PS1 and PS2, there’s a reason we didn’t really see that.

Switch is basically a souped up X360 and if early reports are to be believed, Switch 2 is not much less powerful than a PS5. That’s like a 15 year jump in hardware evolution. Cross gen isn’t gonna be happening unless the devs basically make two separate games (which did used to happen occasionally back in the days of truly big hardware jumps). 

I also strongly disagree MP4 can’t breakout of a Metroid’s sales pattern with a real “wow” factor game. It doesn’t need to be open world. Just make it a kickass FPS Metroidvania with graphics and performance on a level never seen before on a Nintendo console. Maybe throw in a multiplayer component that is compelling to showcase what will hopefully be a way better online infrastructure for Switch 2. Boom, possible 10m LT seller.

Especially if Switch 2 has a successful launch. And no I’m not saying they should rely on MP4 for that. Something like Mario Kart 9 would make sense as the system seller, while MP4 rides the hype and momentum train thanks to killer word of mouth.  

reminds me of what people thought about Zelda before Breath of the Wild went on and shattered the sales records of the series

Metroid Dread did amazing for sales in the Metroid series because it was new, it was difficult, and had a lot of nostalgia feeling, even with the new stuff they added. Not to mention it was 2D.

Hence the point Tober made, First Person Metroid will not be selling amazing, I personally said 4 million because hopefully people will give Metroid a chance and will catch attention from the new generation of gamers. (I assume MP4 releases Summer 2024, meaning Switch will have sold 145M units with over +343M Nintendo Accounts). Out of the 145M consoles, and 343M Nintendo users, they should be able to sell better than WarioWare, Xenoblade, and ARMS.
Metroid sells on average 1.85M units per main game.
4M units is Metroid Prime 4's maximum. But that is just me being very positive and optimistic.
I think Tober's estimate of 2M is very doable.

GoldenEye 007 sold so well on the N64 was due to its:
1. Fun level designs, each different with varying levels of difficulty
2. Level Design was non-linear and allowed experimentation
3. The "AI" was good enough that stealth was fun
4. The MULTIPLAYER mode slapped

Does anyone else remember how fun it was to play with your friends shooting each others? I do, endless hours, "tournaments", and trying to make things difficult and fun for everyone (cardboard cuttouts so everyone got to see their own corner and no screen peeking).

If Metroid Prime 4 is able to have a multiplayer mode, then MP4 will easily sell over 5M.