The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

super_etecoon said:

Tober said:

Most typical Nintendo players I know do not like playing first person games. Japan gamers are notoriously not into first person games much.

When Metroid Prime came out, it was a novelty that was featured heavily in magazines and obviously it reviewed very well. A lot of people gave it a try. But the drop in sales with Prime2 and only a mild recovery with Prime3 on a 100+ million console, tells me that a lot of typical Nintendo players could not gel with the first party gameplay.

The Prime fandom is there, but isn't very large. The mildly disappointing sales of Prime remastered is another reason I believe Prime4 will not be the huge seller that people think. Perhaps somewhere around 2 million.

2 million?  Yeah, I just wanted to quote that for posterity.  Prime 4 is doing 4 million minimum.  It could even go above 5.  Metroid Dread, a full price 2D game did 3 million.  

Metroid Dread did amazing for sales in the Metroid series because it was new, it was difficult, and had a lot of nostalgia feeling, even with the new stuff they added. Not to mention it was 2D.

Hence the point Tober made, First Person Metroid will not be selling amazing, I personally said 4 million because hopefully people will give Metroid a chance and will catch attention from the new generation of gamers. (I assume MP4 releases Summer 2024, meaning Switch will have sold 145M units with over +343M Nintendo Accounts). Out of the 145M consoles, and 343M Nintendo users, they should be able to sell better than WarioWare, Xenoblade, and ARMS.
Metroid sells on average 1.85M units per main game.
4M units is Metroid Prime 4's maximum. But that is just me being very positive and optimistic.
I think Tober's estimate of 2M is very doable.