This fiscal year we will see the Nintendo Switch sell its goal (i personally think it will reach the selling goal by the end of December but I may make a new prediction based on the November results on the 15th).

This upcoming fiscal year will be a very uneasing one for Nintendo based on what they plan to do. So here are their options:
1. No new hardware this year until March 2025 and no HUGE game sellers (like Tears of the Kingdom was for 2023). If nothing big is releasing November 2024 (id be very surprised), then the Switch will not sell more than 10M, most likely near 8M. And will not be able to outsell the PS2.

2. No new hardware this year until March 2025, but 2024 is full of 1st and 3rd party titles that will be enticing (Metroid Prime 4, and the list of games I mentioned earlier, etc). This will keep Switch alive, and will sell similar to 2023 but a bit less. I say near 12.5M

3. Hardware releases November 2024, and the a big holiday game (like Breath of the Wild) will be on Switch and NG. Switch will be able to sell 10M.

4. Hardware release November 2024, and the big holiday game only releases on NG. Switch will sell 8M.

5. Hardware releases September 2024, with holiday game on Switch and NG. Switch sells 8.7M.

6. Hardware releases September 2024, no Switch holiday game. Switch sells 6.9M

I think option 3 is the most likely, followed by option 5. Then option 2.


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I do think MP4 makes far more sense as a Switch 2 title now. It is probably Nintendo’s best IP to show off tech and hardware power, why put it on Switch at this point? As far as 2024 Switch games if thr Switch 2 is 2025, I think there’s still a ton of other options that would make a lot of sense. New 2D Zelda, new donkey Kong, new Rhythm Heaven, new Star Fox are all games that make a lot of sense as end of life Switch releases that still aren’t on the console, and would be a pretty packed year again for Switch if we got them.

I believe MP4 will be cross-platform between the Switch and it's successor, similar to how Breath of the Wild (Wii U + Switch) and Twilight Princess (Gamecube + Wii) were released - though I expect a bigger visual difference between the Switch version and it's successor's version than on those two examples.

MP4 cross gen is a huge mistake because this is not GCN to Wii or Wii U to Switcy with minimal hardware upgrades. It’s going to be a massive jump, and the only way to do cross gen will be to hold it way way back on Switch 2 and risk making it seem like the system is way more underpowered than it is, so what’s even the point? Switch exclusive or Switch 2 exclusive. They basically develop 2 separate games to make it cross gen and I can’t see that.

Considering how graphics can be scaled these days, cross-gen should not be a problem. Cut down on texture resolution and lighting, lower the resolution somewhat add some tweaks and it should run well on the Switch.

Remember how people thought some games like Doom or The Witcher 3 would be impossible on the Switch since the other versions run on much more powerful hardware, most even stronger than the Switch successors expected specs will be. And yet they run just on fine on the Switch.

Obviously cross gen wouldn't be for all the games going for Switch 2. (Also no need to say that is not how cross gen development would work in between Switch and Switch 2)

So it would be stupid to judge the system based on cross gen games if there are exclusives putting visual performance way beyond what Switch is capable of or AAA 3rd party titles that would miss the Switch for not being able to have a playable performance but run on the newest system just fine

Pretty sure Prime 4 will be made from the ground up for Switch 1 and will be ported to Switch 2 with only bumps in resolution, kinda like how BOTW was between Wii U & Switch. I doubt that Retro been working on this game as a Switch 2 game first when they started development in 2019 when the Switch was only 2 years old and having promised this game to come to Switch.

Did Sony have to basically develop separate games when they released God of War: Ragnarok on PS4 & PS5 or did Microsoft have to develop separate games when they released Halo: Infinite on XBO & XSXS?

Its not a huge mistake to go cross gen with this title. Its not going to matter that much and there's plenty of cross gen games on other platforms where the game was built more for the previous gen.  They just built a brand new engine for the game and already used it on MP1 remastered. The fact that the engine works well on Switch 1 might very well be a benefit to Switch 2. The fact that before features and improvements are added to the title it wouldnt take that many resources away from Switch 2 is a benefit. It will make it alot easier for Nintendo to show off advanced features.  It will probably have the resources left over to run at 4k using DLSS unlike 3rd party ports, it should be able to handle really good ray tracing ect. And with that art style its already going to look good. Its even going to look good on the original switch for cripes sakes. If you pair that with some nice 3rd party ports at launch, people will get a good showcase of what the system is capable of. Im thinking Resident Evil 4 Remake and Call of Duty ect. 

I think its very reasonable to expect that the engine was designed with cross gen in mind. 

Bottom line for Metroid Prime 4 on Switch 2. It will not sell consoles. Not in the way a Zelda or Mario or gimmicky/revolutionary idea will. At that point it’s about selling as much software as possible. That means it gets a Switch 1 release. It will do well for Switch 2, and will likely be a GOTY candidate if all goes well, but it doesn’t make sense in terms of marketing and money to lock it to a smaller hardware base.