The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

firebush03 said:

The Switch isn’t even crushing through 10mil this fiscal year. They certainly will hit maybe 14-15mil for F2023, but F2024 I see being at most 8 or 9mil.

archbrix said:

Switch should reach 15m for fiscal ending 2024, down from the previous 17.9m.  Nintendo still has some options for Switch next year and depending on what they do, I think a drop of ~5m is possible for fiscal ending '25.  Could be more of a drop though.

XtremeBG said:

With the more and more rumours we get about the Switch 2, and even those that say releasing early next year (likely not, but still can't be too far from the truth) and also with the declining sales (especially in US and Europe this year, and as we all saw Japan is starting to drop too, which all will be even more down, heck Switch won't reach even 2017 US sales .. with Europe barely matching 2017 too.) I really can't imagine how Nintendo will give 2024 full year only for the Switch. The system will finish this 2023 year with 15M at max, and next year if we say the successor is not coming, it surely won't do more than 10M. With successor will be even lower.

This fiscal year we will see the Nintendo Switch sell its goal (i personally think it will reach the selling goal by the end of December but I may make a new prediction based on the November results on the 15th).

This upcoming fiscal year will be a very uneasing one for Nintendo based on what they plan to do. So here are their options:
1. No new hardware this year until March 2025 and no HUGE game sellers (like Tears of the Kingdom was for 2023). If nothing big is releasing November 2024 (id be very surprised), then the Switch will not sell more than 10M, most likely near 8M. And will not be able to outsell the PS2.

2. No new hardware this year until March 2025, but 2024 is full of 1st and 3rd party titles that will be enticing (Metroid Prime 4, and the list of games I mentioned earlier, etc). This will keep Switch alive, and will sell similar to 2023 but a bit less. I say near 12.5M

3. Hardware releases November 2024, and the a big holiday game (like Breath of the Wild) will be on Switch and NG. Switch will be able to sell 10M.

4. Hardware release November 2024, and the big holiday game only releases on NG. Switch will sell 8M.

5. Hardware releases September 2024, with holiday game on Switch and NG. Switch sells 8.7M.

6. Hardware releases September 2024, no Switch holiday game. Switch sells 6.9M

I think option 3 is the most likely, followed by option 5. Then option 2.


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