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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Norion on 12 May 2025
Soundwave said:
Norion said:

When it comes to hardware sales it's not a debate that it'll retain popularity for longer, the previous fiscal year for the Switch is 10.8m which is notably lower than the equivalent for the PS2 at 13.7m and that'll increasingly be the case over the next few years so in the last few years the PS2 will have greater demand. For the rest I literally said I mostly agree and that it had lower peak popularity so of course I agree that the Switch is the overall more popular system. I was just pointing out that the PS2 does have points in its favour one being its impressively long lifespan despite its successor coming out just six years in.

The only point in its favor is it may have higher sales in like years 11, 12, 13, lol. 

The Switch is ahead of the PS2 every year its been available and would cross 160 million if Nintendo allowed it to sell long enough to do so. I don't think there is much of an argument to even be made against that. 

The PS2 had like 4 price cuts, let the Switch have even 1 and let it sell for the same amount of time and it would go past 170 million. 

The only thing keeping the PS2 in this "race" is that Nintendo wants to sell Switch 2 systems more than they want this record. Has nothing to do with the relative popularity of the systems though. 

Well no compared to the Switch there's also the fact that the PS2 didn't get a big boost from a major pandemic and that gaming itself was a lot less popular decades ago as I mentioned so while total popularity isn't as high it was more popular among gamers at the game which counts for at least something. The NES's total of just under 62m isn't anything special nowadays but it was absolutely incredible for the time like how there's an argument that the PS1's total is more impressive than the PS4's considering the different circumstances.

Again I do mostly agree since the Switch and especially the DS getting to 150m as quickly as they did compared to the PS2 is a big deal so would pick the DS as the most impressive in terms of hardware sales but would likely give it to the Switch when including software. I just don't think it's as lopsided as you're making it out to be when taking every factor into account.



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CourageTCD on 12 May 2025
Norion said:
Soundwave said:

The only point in its favor is it may have higher sales in like years 11, 12, 13, lol. 

The Switch is ahead of the PS2 every year its been available and would cross 160 million if Nintendo allowed it to sell long enough to do so. I don't think there is much of an argument to even be made against that. 

The PS2 had like 4 price cuts, let the Switch have even 1 and let it sell for the same amount of time and it would go past 170 million. 

The only thing keeping the PS2 in this "race" is that Nintendo wants to sell Switch 2 systems more than they want this record. Has nothing to do with the relative popularity of the systems though. 

Well no compared to the Switch there's also the fact that the PS2 didn't get a big boost from a major pandemic and that gaming itself was a lot less popular decades ago as I mentioned so while total popularity isn't as high it was more popular among gamers at the game which counts for at least something. The NES's total of just under 62m isn't anything special nowadays but it was absolutely incredible for the time like how there's an argument that the PS1's total is more impressive than the PS4's considering the different circumstances.

Again I do mostly agree since the Switch and especially the DS getting to 150m as quickly as they did compared to the PS2 is a big deal so would pick the DS as the most impressive in terms of hardware sales but would likely give it to the Switch when including software. I just don't think it's as lopsided as you're making it out to be when taking every factor into account.

It's no wonder these 3 are the three most sold consoles ever. Each one has something that we can say that they were the best.



firebush03 on 12 May 2025
Norion said:
Soundwave said:

The only point in its favor is it may have higher sales in like years 11, 12, 13, lol. 

The Switch is ahead of the PS2 every year its been available and would cross 160 million if Nintendo allowed it to sell long enough to do so. I don't think there is much of an argument to even be made against that. 

The PS2 had like 4 price cuts, let the Switch have even 1 and let it sell for the same amount of time and it would go past 170 million. 

The only thing keeping the PS2 in this "race" is that Nintendo wants to sell Switch 2 systems more than they want this record. Has nothing to do with the relative popularity of the systems though. 

Well no compared to the Switch there's also the fact that the PS2 didn't get a big boost from a major pandemic and that gaming itself was a lot less popular decades ago as I mentioned so while total popularity isn't as high it was more popular among gamers at the game which counts for at least something. The NES's total of just under 62m isn't anything special nowadays but it was absolutely incredible for the time like how there's an argument that the PS1's total is more impressive than the PS4's considering the different circumstances.

Again I do mostly agree since the Switch and especially the DS getting to 150m as quickly as they did compared to the PS2 is a big deal so would pick the DS as the most impressive in terms of hardware sales but would likely give it to the Switch when including software. I just don't think it's as lopsided as you're making it out to be when taking every factor into account.

I’d argue the Switch is by far the most successful system from a hardware perspective. (From a software perspective? It’d be very close btwn PS2 and Switch…though if we want to impose a(n arbitrary) restriction to exclusive or first-party, then def Switch.) The fact that Switch could ship through 150mil without dropping MSRP is quite impressive, compared to DS & PS2 which had both dropped near or below 1/3rd of their OG MSRP by year 8. Gaming is much more mainstream today than it was during 2001-2012, so DS/PS2 have that on Switch, but maintaining a steady price far outweighs how ever mainstream gaming has become imo.

…but regardless, this is a pretty silly argument. So, I’ll see myself out of here after this comment. I encourage others to follow suit.

Last edited by firebush03 - on 12 May 2025

FarleyMcFirefly on 12 May 2025

I really think with a cheap revision (cannot rule it out despite how unlikely) they could totally do it.
I know its been said before, but a TV only Switch for cheap would be really neat.



1doesnotsimply

Soundwave on 12 May 2025
firebush03 said:
Norion said:

Well no compared to the Switch there's also the fact that the PS2 didn't get a big boost from a major pandemic and that gaming itself was a lot less popular decades ago as I mentioned so while total popularity isn't as high it was more popular among gamers at the game which counts for at least something. The NES's total of just under 62m isn't anything special nowadays but it was absolutely incredible for the time like how there's an argument that the PS1's total is more impressive than the PS4's considering the different circumstances.

Again I do mostly agree since the Switch and especially the DS getting to 150m as quickly as they did compared to the PS2 is a big deal so would pick the DS as the most impressive in terms of hardware sales but would likely give it to the Switch when including software. I just don't think it's as lopsided as you're making it out to be when taking every factor into account.

I’d argue the Switch is by far the most successful system from a hardware perspective. (From a software perspective? It’d be very close btwn PS2 and Switch…though if we want to impose a(n arbitrary) restriction to exclusive or first-party, then def Switch.) The fact that Switch could ship through 150mil without dropping MSRP is quite impressive, compared to DS & PS2 which had both dropped near or below 1/3rd of their OG MSRP by year 8. Gaming is much more mainstream today than it was during 2001-2012, so DS/PS2 have that on Switch, but maintaining a steady price far outweighs how ever mainstream gaming has become imo.

…but regardless, this is a pretty silly argument. So, I’ll see myself out of here after this comment. I encourage others to follow suit.

It's kinda iffy because the gaming population really exploded in the mid-2000s and at least for home consoles hasn't really seen a huge bump since then. 

Like sure more people play games overall, but huge portions of that are basically smartphone/tablet only and/or Steam/PC only. 

There's also much more general entertainment competition these days with streaming services like Netflix, teenagers spending hours and hours on social media apps like Instagram and Tiktok, Youtube, etc.etc. In the 2000s entertainment options were much more limited. Your phone did this:

And having an iPod that basically just played music was incredible to people. 

Today your smartphone can entertain you for hours on end, not just gaming but social media, video, you name it. The Switch competes in a much more crowded entertainment landscape. 



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Shtinamin_ on 12 May 2025

I’m seeing a lot of mental gymnastics here. Hostile, toxic comments.

I’m also seeing very intelligent, sensible and peacemaker-like comments. Hope to see more of this moving forward.

My prediction I made a long while back is wrong. But I still stand that Switch can at least reach 160M units (though I do admit it will be close to an uphill battle).

New update

Official Shipped 152.12M

Official expected in FY’25 ending March 31, 2026 4.5M

Q1 First Party Game Releases: None

Q2 First Party Game Releases: None

Q3 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Legends: Z-A

2025 First Party Game Releases: Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Pokémon Legends: Z-A

Q4 First Party Game Releases: None

2026 First Party Game Releases: Rhythm Heaven Groove

2027 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Champions

This year does not look for 1st Party Nintendo Switch releases.

 

Q1: Sold in April in Japan 106,552 units.

With the release of the Switch 2 and no new major Nintendo games on the Switch within this quarter we should expect a huge drop in sales in comparison to Q1 of FY’24

We should expect around 0.65M for Q1, ~66% decline YoY.

The shipments should be just below the number sold during the quarter, so we should expect shipment numbers to be at a maximum of 152.97M

Q2: No new major Nintendo game releases.

During the summer we may see some increase from Q1.

I expect around 1.1M units sold for Q2, ~52% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 154.27M. Surpassing the DS becoming Nintendo’s best selling gaming system.

Q3: We may see Metroid Prime 4: Beyond releasing near Halloween like we did with Metroid Dread. We may see Pokémon Legends: Z-A releasing near November.

These will boost sales along with the Christmas season but the Switch is taking a seat back away from the hot seat as Switch 2 will do its best to take the mantle.

There could be a bundle.

I expect near 2.2M units sold for Q3,~56% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 156.77M.

Q4: This will be the weakest quarter. I don’t expect Rhythm Heaven to release this quarter.

I expect near 0.55M units sold for Q4, ~66% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 157.32M

 

Nintendo will then set the next FY goal for Switch total shipments to be 2.5M



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Kyuu on 12 May 2025
TheRealSamusAran said:
Kyuu said:

The PS2 is older today than the Atari 2600 was when the former was launched, and ended selling over 5 times more. How many Playstation fans gloated about its peak years being higher than 2600? Console sales significance is dictated by the popularity and circumstances of the medium itself. PS2's 160 million impresses more in a sense than today's equivalent. NES's 60 million is much more impressive than 3DS's 75 million. And Atari 2600's 30 million crushes N64 and Xbox Series XS's totals.

A successor's failure or bumpy start don't necessarily equate to higher demand for its predecessor. Unlike the PS2, the once crazy popular DS and certainly Wii didn't have particularly high demand at the end of their generation despite the 3DS's lackluster performance and Wii U's failure. They were never going to have a PS2-like tail. And let's not forget that the "oh so awful" PS3 ended selling nearly as many units as 3DS and Wii U combined.

The Switch covered two huge markets in a time where gaming is massive, it had no competitors in the handheld space. If Soundwave were in the wrong camp (Playstation), he wouldn't be quiet about the "fake/bloated" Switch demand from COVID, and how Playstation consoles were unfairly production capped for 3 years. In my mind, the Switch is definitely the most successful platform of all time due to its record profitability. But you can't really draw meaningful comparisons between it and a super dominant platform from 25 years ago. Gaming is several times bigger today.

The PS2 is worthy of its throne. I hope it retains it for another glorious 25 years of haters being mad salty about it, whining like Gargamel, and blaming the DVD drive!

You, on the other hand, mentioned COVID, at the same time that you minimized all the homes that got a PS2 just because it was the cheapest DVD player in the market.

I also want to point out the flaw of the "gaming is bigger today" argument. Gaming is bigger today because of the mobile market. That's it, that's where most players are, that's where the big bucks are made. If the console market really got so much bigger, then why isn't the PS5 getting anywhere close to the PS2 sales, as the PS4 didn't either. I know many players migrated to Steam, but that's what you get for letting go of your exclusives.

Lastly, I want to point out that, believe it or not, not only mobile is where most players are, mobile is also in competition with all the other platforms, because if before people had to buy a console or a gaming PC for their gaming fix, today many people get their fix from mobile games already. And handhelds are specially affected by the mobile market... Sony literally left the handheld market and blamed it on phones.

Mobile gaming counts. But even when you exclude it, gaming grew massively since the PS2 days and I'm not talking just hardware sales. Modern gamers are willing to spend more time and money on gaming be it in the form of subscription services, expensive consoles/PC/games, mtx, f2p, accessories etc. It's a much bigger industry with multiple big players. Current Playstation, Nintendo systems, and Steam/PC are "each" bigger than the PS2 was in most relevant metrics.  So much has changed since then.

It doesn't matter how much you think mobile phones affected dedicated handhelds, the fact is the Switch is a hybrid that functions as both a handheld and a home console, it benefitted massively from its portability, and I don't mean this as an insult lol. It's hybridness made it an amazing platform, and it does deserve every sale.

The DVD excuse for PS2 sales has always been ridiculous, because the PS2 crushed the direct competition (combined) in software sales as well, this is without counting the (likely) hundreds of millions of pirated games. The PS2 was a phenomenon for its time.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 12 May 2025

CourageTCD on 12 May 2025
Shtinamin_ said:

I’m seeing a lot of mental gymnastics here. Hostile, toxic comments.

I’m also seeing very intelligent, sensible and peacemaker-like comments. Hope to see more of this moving forward.

My prediction I made a long while back is wrong. But I still stand that Switch can at least reach 160M units (though I do admit it will be close to an uphill battle).

New update

Official Shipped 152.12M

Official expected in FY’25 ending March 31, 2026 4.5M

Q1 First Party Game Releases: None

Q2 First Party Game Releases: None

Q3 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Legends: Z-A

2025 First Party Game Releases: Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Pokémon Legends: Z-A

Q4 First Party Game Releases: None

2026 First Party Game Releases: Rhythm Heaven Groove

2027 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Champions

This year does not look for 1st Party Nintendo Switch releases.

 

Q1: Sold in April in Japan 106,552 units.

With the release of the Switch 2 and no new major Nintendo games on the Switch within this quarter we should expect a huge drop in sales in comparison to Q1 of FY’24

We should expect around 0.65M for Q1, ~66% decline YoY.

The shipments should be just below the number sold during the quarter, so we should expect shipment numbers to be at a maximum of 152.97M

Q2: No new major Nintendo game releases.

During the summer we may see some increase from Q1.

I expect around 1.1M units sold for Q2, ~52% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 154.27M. Surpassing the DS becoming Nintendo’s best selling gaming system.

Q3: We may see Metroid Prime 4: Beyond releasing near Halloween like we did with Metroid Dread. We may see Pokémon Legends: Z-A releasing near November.

These will boost sales along with the Christmas season but the Switch is taking a seat back away from the hot seat as Switch 2 will do its best to take the mantle.

There could be a bundle.

I expect near 2.2M units sold for Q3,~56% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 156.77M.

Q4: This will be the weakest quarter. I don’t expect Rhythm Heaven to release this quarter.

I expect near 0.55M units sold for Q4, ~66% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 157.32M

 

Nintendo will then set the next FY goal for Switch total shipments to be 2.5M

You forgot about Tomodachi Life. It is a very popular franchise, so it can help the Switch in 2026, at least for a certain period of time



Hynad on 13 May 2025

If the word disingenuous was a VGChartz user…

🤦🏻‍♂️



Shtinamin_ on 13 May 2025
CourageTCD said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I’m seeing a lot of mental gymnastics here. Hostile, toxic comments.

I’m also seeing very intelligent, sensible and peacemaker-like comments. Hope to see more of this moving forward.

My prediction I made a long while back is wrong. But I still stand that Switch can at least reach 160M units (though I do admit it will be close to an uphill battle).

New update

Official Shipped 152.12M

Official expected in FY’25 ending March 31, 2026 4.5M

Q1 First Party Game Releases: None

Q2 First Party Game Releases: None

Q3 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Legends: Z-A

2025 First Party Game Releases: Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Pokémon Legends: Z-A

Q4 First Party Game Releases: None

2026 First Party Game Releases: Rhythm Heaven Groove

2027 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Champions

This year does not look for 1st Party Nintendo Switch releases.

 

Q1: Sold in April in Japan 106,552 units.

With the release of the Switch 2 and no new major Nintendo games on the Switch within this quarter we should expect a huge drop in sales in comparison to Q1 of FY’24

We should expect around 0.65M for Q1, ~66% decline YoY.

The shipments should be just below the number sold during the quarter, so we should expect shipment numbers to be at a maximum of 152.97M

Q2: No new major Nintendo game releases.

During the summer we may see some increase from Q1.

I expect around 1.1M units sold for Q2, ~52% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 154.27M. Surpassing the DS becoming Nintendo’s best selling gaming system.

Q3: We may see Metroid Prime 4: Beyond releasing near Halloween like we did with Metroid Dread. We may see Pokémon Legends: Z-A releasing near November.

These will boost sales along with the Christmas season but the Switch is taking a seat back away from the hot seat as Switch 2 will do its best to take the mantle.

There could be a bundle.

I expect near 2.2M units sold for Q3,~56% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 156.77M.

Q4: This will be the weakest quarter. I don’t expect Rhythm Heaven to release this quarter.

I expect near 0.55M units sold for Q4, ~66% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 157.32M

 

Nintendo will then set the next FY goal for Switch total shipments to be 2.5M

You forgot about Tomodachi Life. It is a very popular franchise, so it can help the Switch in 2026, at least for a certain period of time

You are ever correct. I don’t know why I didn’t put it on, other than I forgot and when I went to look at games (on the wiki) coming in 2026 I didn’t see it (I may have been quick to look). Thank you so for the correction. :)



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.