The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

I’m seeing a lot of mental gymnastics here. Hostile, toxic comments.

I’m also seeing very intelligent, sensible and peacemaker-like comments. Hope to see more of this moving forward.

My prediction I made a long while back is wrong. But I still stand that Switch can at least reach 160M units (though I do admit it will be close to an uphill battle).

New update

Official Shipped 152.12M

Official expected in FY’25 ending March 31, 2026 4.5M

Q1 First Party Game Releases: None

Q2 First Party Game Releases: None

Q3 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Legends: Z-A

2025 First Party Game Releases: Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Pokémon Legends: Z-A

Q4 First Party Game Releases: None

2026 First Party Game Releases: Rhythm Heaven Groove

2027 First Party Game Releases: Pokémon Champions

This year does not look for 1st Party Nintendo Switch releases.

 

Q1: Sold in April in Japan 106,552 units.

With the release of the Switch 2 and no new major Nintendo games on the Switch within this quarter we should expect a huge drop in sales in comparison to Q1 of FY’24

We should expect around 0.65M for Q1, ~66% decline YoY.

The shipments should be just below the number sold during the quarter, so we should expect shipment numbers to be at a maximum of 152.97M

Q2: No new major Nintendo game releases.

During the summer we may see some increase from Q1.

I expect around 1.1M units sold for Q2, ~52% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 154.27M. Surpassing the DS becoming Nintendo’s best selling gaming system.

Q3: We may see Metroid Prime 4: Beyond releasing near Halloween like we did with Metroid Dread. We may see Pokémon Legends: Z-A releasing near November.

These will boost sales along with the Christmas season but the Switch is taking a seat back away from the hot seat as Switch 2 will do its best to take the mantle.

There could be a bundle.

I expect near 2.2M units sold for Q3,~56% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 156.77M.

Q4: This will be the weakest quarter. I don’t expect Rhythm Heaven to release this quarter.

I expect near 0.55M units sold for Q4, ~66% decline YoY.

Maximum shipment should be near 157.32M

 

Nintendo will then set the next FY goal for Switch total shipments to be 2.5M