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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

killer7 said:

So:

1.) As PS2 Slim also had demostations and bigger stores had more than 1 of those, also exhibitions like E3, Pax... had them there should be a lot more than 600k.

2.) A RESOLD product (a product that already counted 1 time) can hardly be seen as a sale let alone produced or shipped unit.

3.) Broken consoles- demostations or costumers systems- cannot be counted deffinitly! 

So if this was really true this 160.6 million number should be A LOT lower! Shipped consoles to stores for costumers should be clearly below 160 million! 

1) I don't think you understand how many consoles 600k would be. Sony can use demo stations multiple times for PAX and E3. There are only 50k consumer electronic stores in the US currently, and the US is a HUGE market. 

2) You say this, but the fact of the matter is that Sony includes returned and refurbished units in their shipped data. How else would you count a refurbished unit?

3) Not broken systems, repaired systems.



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Doctor_MG said:
killer7 said:

So:

1.) As PS2 Slim also had demostations and bigger stores had more than 1 of those, also exhibitions like E3, Pax... had them there should be a lot more than 600k.

2.) A RESOLD product (a product that already counted 1 time) can hardly be seen as a sale let alone produced or shipped unit.

3.) Broken consoles- demostations or costumers systems- cannot be counted deffinitly! 

So if this was really true this 160.6 million number should be A LOT lower! Shipped consoles to stores for costumers should be clearly below 160 million! 

1) I don't think you understand how many consoles 600k would be. Sony can use demo stations multiple times for PAX and E3. There are only 50k consumer electronic stores in the US currently, and the US is a HUGE market. 

2) You say this, but the fact of the matter is that Sony includes returned and refurbished units in their shipped data. How else would you count a refurbished unit?

3) Not broken systems, repaired systems.

2) By serial number.  A refurbished unit would have the original serial number. Possibly not all parts, like those perhaps that got replaced, but the overall serial number would remain the same to track the history of the unit.



All in one many of these 160,6 million cannot be counted towards the "shipped" (for selling to costumers) number. 160,6 million is not even the correct produced number if we where to be exact.

Last edited by killer7 - on 05 February 2025

Tober said:

2) By serial number.  A refurbished unit would have the original serial number. Possibly not all parts, like those perhaps that got replaced, but the overall serial number would remain the same to track the history of the unit.

Right, and even though that unit was returned they can still count it as a sale. 

Like this:

Customer buys product, counts as sale

Customer states product is defective and returns unit 

Customer is given a replacement unit to maintain the sale.

Sony fixes the defective unit and that unit is sold, counts as a sale. 

They aren't double dipping, they are two different PS2's that count as two different sales, but because they are fixing a defective unit they aren't producing another unit. Since Sony was fixing PS2's until 2018, this might be why the shipped number (160M) and the produced number (160.6M) is so close. The suggestion that, because of defective units, demo units, etc there has to be 10-15% more produced units than shipped units is a non-sequitur. There are ways to interpret the data which minimizes that percent significantly. 

There could be other explanations too, and that's all I'm providing. Possible explanations as to why shipped and produced numbers would be so close. 



You guys are putting too much thought on the return/repair from Sony.

Retailers are normally the ones taking care of the repair and refurbishing process, not the hardware make. Warranty on theses types of devices are made to refuse anything that isn’t software issues and even if returned to the store, retailers are generally taking a hit instead of fighting with the manufacturer for refund or credit.

That’s why a lot of retailers are offering refurbished or open box items with a discount so they can salvage the cost of the unit as much as possible. It’s also why they normally refuse refunds once the box or seals are broken, but offer credit instead, to avoid the manufacturer warranty services and keep the money already spent in the store. I’m talking from experience.

And about demo unit: if it’s provided by the store from their inventory, it’s shipped except if the unit is refurbished in house. If the demo is from Sony, they count as produced, but not shipped as they’re normally locked with specific settings that need unlocking from their vendors. Been there, done that.

A 500k unit produced and not ship is totally reasonable in my opinion.



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I think it's unlikely that Switch 2 is as cheap as $349 and a $299 price point is a piranha plant pipe dream. $399 in today's market is perfectly acceptable for a new game system that delivers the goods. And something with Switch 2's technical capabilities that can be used as both a home console and a portable applies (with the right software, of course).

But just as there are plenty of people that will make Switch 2 sell great at $400, there's still the market of potential new customers that don't spend that much (plus $70 on games) that Nintendo is not going to abandon. At least not until a Switch 2 Lite arrives, and even that I don't think will launch for as little as $199. This is why I believe that Switch 1 still has a 10 year total life span for its legacy, just like the NES, and temporary price reductions/bundles will help it along the way.

When you consider what software we could see this year:

Metroid Prime 4, Xenoblade, Pokemon Legends: Confirmed
Prime 1 & 2 ports, Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, appealing bundles (SMBW): Likely
A Switch Sports or RFA sequel, F-Zero GX port, Kid Icarus Uprising port, Yoshi's Wooly World port, Pokemon Legends special edition Switch: Possible

That, along with the "niche" IP title we've heard rumored would make for a pretty solid 2025, all things considered. Switch's days selling ~10m/year are over going forward, but sales are not going to just disappear for a system with a library as strong as what the Switch offers, particularly if there is an official price drop in its future this holiday or next year, which I still believe is possible. Not to mention that anyone buying into the Switch ecosystem now has a future for their games/account with its successor.

The Switch beating the sales of the PS2 is obviously not Nintendo's priority, but when you consider that what is paramount for the company just happens to align with that outcome, it becomes far more likely that it finishes with the same end result.

Last edited by archbrix - on 05 February 2025

Doctor_MG said:
Tober said:

2) By serial number.  A refurbished unit would have the original serial number. Possibly not all parts, like those perhaps that got replaced, but the overall serial number would remain the same to track the history of the unit.

Right, and even though that unit was returned they can still count it as a sale. 

Like this:

Customer buys product, counts as sale

Customer states product is defective and returns unit 

Customer is given a replacement unit to maintain the sale.

Sony fixes the defective unit and that unit is sold, counts as a sale. 

They aren't double dipping, they are two different PS2's that count as two different sales, but because they are fixing a defective unit they aren't producing another unit. Since Sony was fixing PS2's until 2018, this might be why the shipped number (160M) and the produced number (160.6M) is so close. The suggestion that, because of defective units, demo units, etc there has to be 10-15% more produced units than shipped units is a non-sequitur. There are ways to interpret the data which minimizes that percent significantly. 

There could be other explanations too, and that's all I'm providing. Possible explanations as to why shipped and produced numbers would be so close. 

I Agree and would add it's important to understand the word 'Shipment' can be defined differently given the context on how and when it's reported. What I mean is the difference between using 'Shipment' in an Operational Report vs. a Financial one.

According to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), when reporting Shipments in a financial reports, these are ONLY there to support the accounting line item REVENUE and COST OF GOODS SOLD (GOGS). If a shipment of units occurred that did not lead to an impact to these line items, the shipment should not be reported in said Financial Report. Let me give some examples where a shipment would physically take place in an operational sense, but not in a financial sense:

A) Give a Playstation for free to game journalist or influencers. These physically are produced and shipped, but not lead to REVENUE/COGS, instead are accounted as MARKETING EXPENSE, therefore these units will not show up on financial shipment reports.

B) Demo's. These are still owned by Sony, and will be accounted on the balance sheet, not as REVENUE/COGS, therefore should not be counted as shipped in a financial report.

C) Consignment Stock, this is where a retailer and Sony has an agreement where the stock at the retailer is still Sony's property, until the unit actually gets sold to an end consumer. As long as it's in consignment stock it will not be counted as shipped in a financial report.

Therefore its tricky to try to align different reports when those reports had a different purpose. If Sony is making a statement in an operational sense how many are produced or shipped (two different things offcourse), then it's not unusual at all if that does not 100% match with a statement of shipments in a financial report. This is offcourse true for Nintendo or Xbox as well.



Tober said:
Doctor_MG said:

Right, and even though that unit was returned they can still count it as a sale. 

Like this:

Customer buys product, counts as sale

Customer states product is defective and returns unit 

Customer is given a replacement unit to maintain the sale.

Sony fixes the defective unit and that unit is sold, counts as a sale. 

They aren't double dipping, they are two different PS2's that count as two different sales, but because they are fixing a defective unit they aren't producing another unit. Since Sony was fixing PS2's until 2018, this might be why the shipped number (160M) and the produced number (160.6M) is so close. The suggestion that, because of defective units, demo units, etc there has to be 10-15% more produced units than shipped units is a non-sequitur. There are ways to interpret the data which minimizes that percent significantly. 

There could be other explanations too, and that's all I'm providing. Possible explanations as to why shipped and produced numbers would be so close. 

I Agree and would add it's important to understand the word 'Shipment' can be defined differently given the context on how and when it's reported. What I mean is the difference between using 'Shipment' in an Operational Report vs. a Financial one.

According to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), when reporting Shipments in a financial reports, these are ONLY there to support the accounting line item REVENUE and COST OF GOODS SOLD (GOGS). If a shipment of units occurred that did not lead to an impact to these line items, the shipment should not be reported in said Financial Report. Let me give some examples where a shipment would physically take place in an operational sense, but not in a financial sense:

A) Give a Playstation for free to game journalist or influencers. These physically are produced and shipped, but not lead to REVENUE/COGS, instead are accounted as MARKETING EXPENSE, therefore these units will not show up on financial shipment reports.

B) Demo's. These are still owned by Sony, and will be accounted on the balance sheet, not as REVENUE/COGS, therefore should not be counted as shipped in a financial report.

C) Consignment Stock, this is where a retailer and Sony has an agreement where the stock at the retailer is still Sony's property, until the unit actually gets sold to an end consumer. As long as it's in consignment stock it will not be counted as shipped in a financial report.

Therefore its tricky to try to align different reports when those reports had a different purpose. If Sony is making a statement in an operational sense how many are produced or shipped (two different things offcourse), then it's not unusual at all if that does not 100% match with a statement of shipments in a financial report. This is offcourse true for Nintendo or Xbox as well.

And thats the point: Every console ever produced (demo station, dev kit, presents to journalists and also repaired PS2) cout towards the 160.6 million). Dev Kits are not sold to costumers, demo stations sure as hell not for reasons i explained multiple times. Presents to journalists, ok maybe i can see this but repaired PS2s reshipped have to be subtracted from these 160.6 million. So far less than 160.6 milllion PS2s have been shipped.

Last edited by killer7 - on 09 February 2025

znake said:

It will be 156 million by August
158.5 million by December
161 million by March

Pokémon will help a lot to reach the #1

We'll see. Pokemon Black and White didn't help the DS sell more even though it came out after the 3DS. Even though they sold the usual amount roughly, people just brought it and played it on their existing DS or new 3DS.

But I do thnk the Switch with some Nintendo support and a price cut will surpass 160m by Mach 2027.



eldanielfire said:
znake said:

It will be 156 million by August
158.5 million by December
161 million by March

Pokémon will help a lot to reach the #1

We'll see. Pokemon Black and White didn't help the DS sell more even though it came out after the 3DS. Even though they sold the usual amount roughly, people just brought it and played it on their existing DS or new 3DS.

But I do thnk the Switch with some Nintendo support and a price cut will surpass 160m by Mach 2027.

You're comparing the worst selling Pokémon generation with a game coming out on the same system that already houses the two best selling generations after gen 1.